Friday, January 22, 2016

Championship weekend

I watched that movie Sicario the other day on the plane.  Pretty good movie.  I will say this, I can't think of a movie that Benicio Del Toro wasn't good in.  He gets no love, probably one of the most underrated actors of our time. Apparently he's going to be in the next star wars too.  Who knew that the next star wars was going to have a drug angle, because that's all he's ever in is crime and drug movies.  Also he was born in Puerto Rico, so he's american, never would have guessed that.

I'll be dog manned if Aaron Rodgers isn't the best hail marrier in the history of the NFL.  I think that kids aren't allowed to play 500 anymore at school, so defenders are horrible at stopping those passes.

surprised that all the jobs filled and Josh McDaniels didn't even get an interview.  Even Patricia got an interview.  I would have thought that Tennessee would have been a good fit.  Also surprised that the giants stuck with Macadoo, but whatever.

I didn't make picks last week, but I would have gotten them all right because the favorites all won, and i'm good at picking like that.

Patriots -3 vs Broncos
This one is tough.  I'm sick of hearing all the stats like, the broncos are the only team that Tom Brady has a losing record against, (he's 6-8 all time).  Tom Brady is 2-6 in Denver.  Tom Brady's first playoff loss of his career came in Denver.  Tom Brady and Peyton Manning have never won on the road against each other in the playoffs or something, they've both won their home games.  Peyton has a 2-1 edge in the AFC championship head to head.  Pats are 3-0 when facing the NFL's top defense in the playoffs over the last 20 years...etc.  Stats are stupid. Every year the team is different, and there are like 104 other players besides the two starting QBs.  If the Pats win, they'll go to their 9th superbowl all time, and be the leader in the clubhouse, currently tied with the steelers and the cowboys.  If the broncos win, they go to their 8th all time, and create a 4 way tie.   So in other words, here are two of the class organizations in AFC history, granted the Pats have been only over the last 15 years or so, but that's really fucking good history for both teams. I could go on about this for days.  The bottom line.  Edelman is back.  Gronk is back.  Brady is still there.  The defense is pretty good.  I think you'll see a similar game plan to what they used last week to neutralize the pass rush, lots of quick short passes, and just take 5-7 yard gains all the way down the field.  Broncos defense is really good, and if they can make brady come off that quick first throw, and hold for just a half a second longer, advantage broncos.  Honestly, I think the offense of the Pats vs the defense of the Broncos ends up being a push, maybe a slight edge to the Pats because of Edelman being back.  Looking at the other side.  Broncos offense vs Pats defense, this one isn't close.  Broncos offense has sucked balls all year long.  I don't trust Peyton Manning.  That being said, I would not be surprised if he had his best game of the year this weekend.  Although I think that's highly unlikely.  The first time these two teams met, the broncos were able to run the ball all over the pats.  I think Belichik corrects that, and takes away the run, and makes Manning beat him with his arm.  Broncos receivers have had a horrible amount of drops, and I have zero confidence in this offense if they can't run the ball.  Overall, I think the weather will be fine, and that HFA isn't that big of a deal in this case.  If this game was in New England, the broncos wouldn't have any shot.  At least they have a glimmer of hope.  End of the day, i'm hoping its just a great game.  Pats win 24-20

Panthers -3 vs Cardinals
Kind of funny, all the stats and history between Manning/Brady and Broncos/Pats and all that jazz, and then you've got two teams in the NFC with very little history of success.  Panthers are really tough at home, and their defense is so opportunistic.  Cardinals offense is awesome, just flat out awesome.  I think Carson Palmer has the jitters out, and finally got the playoff monkey off his back, now he can just go out and play football. I look at the panthers offense vs the cardinals defense and it's pretty close to a push.  Both units are really good.  The Panthers can run the ball on anyone, and their passing game almost feels like an old school option team's passing offense.  Meaning that you commit so much to stopping the run, when they do pass it makes it a lot easier.  Carolina just doesn't have any talent on offense other than Cam Newton, and apparently that's all they need. At the end of the day, that's where Carolina gets that advantage.  Cardinals offense against the Panthers defense, is again, feels like a push.  maybe a slight advantage to the panthers, but their dbs are all banged up.  Fitzgerald in the slot is a really tough cover.  Does Josh Norman just follow fitz everywhere, or does he stay on his side and take that part of the field away?  we shall see, but in the end I think this will be a close game.  coming down to the last drive, and I think that Cam Newton makes a few more plays than Palmer, and that's the difference.  I'll take the panthers for the win 24-20

Saturday, January 16, 2016

Playoffs??!!!

NE -5 over KC
Who is making a play for KC?  Would have to be that defense because all the playmakers on offense are out.  Travis Kelce will be a non-factor.  Bill will make sure he's contained.  Because he has no one else to worry about.  The Pats are pretty healthy headed into this years tournament.  I keep trying to find a reason KC will be able to knock them off but I can't. 


AZ -7.5 over GB
Arizona is going to wash Green Bay.  That defense will be flying around.  Washington's defense sucks.  Nothing compared to this unit.  Once time of possession goes in Arizona's favor this one will start to get out of hand. 


CAR -2 over Sea
Expecting a great game.  I wonder if Seattle is able to stop the run which they usually do if the Panthers will open it up early or be patient and stick with it.  That's the key.  When will checkers become chess? 


DEN -7.5 over Steelers
Trying to figure out how the Steelers score more than 14 points.  Not seeing it.  Last time Steelers went to Mile High for a playoff game TEBOW happened.  Peyton - Brady one last time for a trip to Super Bowl.  Of course it had to happen like that.  Pro Football writers wet dream.

Sunday, January 10, 2016

NFC Picks

On yesterday's game:


Using JJ Watt as the RB in that situation yesterday was inexcusable and embarrassing.  Fireable offense if you ask me.  This whole building a shrine for JJ Watt who hasn't won a god damn thing except individual awards needs to stop.  I'm sick and tired of hearing about him.  And the Texans coddle it.  Fags.


Bullshit refs in the steelers game the pacman foul should have been offsetting since Porter was on the field running his mouth.  Burfict is a thug.  Everyone knows what that means.  He's lucky he can play football because he would probably be in jail without this beautiful game that he is butchering.  Ruined AJ McCarron's first come from behind playoff win (told you this kid has stones) and ruined Marvin Lewis's career.


Today's games.


Too cold to play this game man.  The medical staff will be busy.


I'll take the veterans over the upstarts.  Seattle.  Two reasons.  To beat Seattle you have to throw the ball down the field.  Impossible in this weather.  Reason two is the experience on this Seattle team.  They will be a handful for Carolina next week and that game I'm predicting to be an instant classic.


Two teams offensively going in the wrong direction but I'm sticking with the best QB.  I think he'll figure out a way to make some plays and I think the Wash secondary is ripe for those plays.  Looking for the disappointing Davante Adams to appear.  Also looking for Dom Capers to confuse the shit out of Kirk Cousins. 


So Seattle, Pack.


Already leaning towards the Pats and Broncos because they are healthy.  Considering Ben/Brown hurt and No Maclin for the Chiefs.


For tomorrow, as a bonus, take Clemson +7.  Alabama won't be able to contain Watson who is an electric college football player.  Only thing that beats Saban is mobile qb's who can throw. 


enjoy



Wednesday, January 06, 2016

Wild card week picks

I know that EP is a sore loser.  You know how I know, because he tries to make it about money when he loses.  Like "hey if we were playing for money, i'd spend more time on the picks and beat you".  Sore looser*.

Has any other president ever cried in front of the camera?

Apparently Jonah Hill works for the Browns now.  If that character was really based off of depedesto, then why is the dude so fat in the movie.

This johnny football thing is kind of funny.  If it's true that he was in disguise and partying, that is hilarity.  Or maybe it's a weakness/sickness.  I don't know, but it just sounds so crazy yet so believable.

I'm already over the Peyton Manning story.  Dude handed the ball off and didn't play particularly awesome in the 2nd half, and he's back?  I guess Kubiak can roll the dice and play manning, and take the easy way out.  but not sure if you can go back to Brock now in this situation.  If Manning is stinking it up in the first half (which Osweiler was not) do you pull him and put in Brock for a "spark".  What a clusterfuck of disaster.  Maybe peyton's foot will hurt again, i don't know, i'm not a doctor.

So many story lines with head coaches getting fired, not getting fired, resigning, wanting to be traded, just goes to show how NFL is top dog.

How about Stan Kroenke, basically saying that St. Louis is garbage of a town.  Probably true.  But I mean, if Detroit can still have 4 sports, how can St. Louis be any worse.  Bottom line, dude is ridiculously smart, and played his cards right.  He can just write a check and build a stadium in LA, and may just do it despite what anyone else says.  Big talk about the Chargers moving too, who cares.  I've lived here for 8 months, and while everyone has chargers shit on their cars and whatever, 90% of the people you talk to, have no idea if they won or lost last weekend.  Screw the chargers, and go fuck yourself San Diego.

Last week I knocked it out 14-2.  that's pretty close to good.  EP was a respectable 10-6.  I'd take that, nothing wrong with going 10-6 in week 17.  That brings my regular season totals up to 132-101-6 (.566) and EP up to 112-104-6 (.519).  So better than a coin flip for both of us.  Should we start over records for the post season?  Probably.

Wow 4 home dogs in the first round of the playoffs, this should be interesting

Texans +3.5 vs Chiefs
Now, I know the chiefs are the hottest team since sliced bread.  I know that they beat Houston in week 1.  I know that they've got a great defense.  I know that Andy Reid went to 4 straight NFC championship games.  I know Alex Smith is the smartest QB in all of Missouri.  I know that Brian Hoyer is a career journeyman.  I know that the Texans don't have a real running back or attack.  All that being said.  I know that JJ Watt is better than anything the chiefs have on offense.  I know that Deandre Hopkins can catch a football in a straight jacket.  I know that Brian Cushing is underrated and healthy.  I know that the Texans defense has played lights out the last few weeks.  I know that the chiefs have been pretty lucky the last couple of weeks against Oakland and Cleveland (both not playoff teams) and eked out wins against them.  I'm going texans, I just like their moxie.  Texans win outright 24-14, and setup a rematch with the Pats, that Bill O'Brien has to be not to excited about.

Steelers -2.5 vs Bengals
Not sure if Dalton is going to play this week or not.  Not sure it makes much of a difference.  Two teams that hate each other.  Home field doesn't matter in this game.  I think AJ McCarron has made himself some money, Bengals would be smart to see what they can get for him in the trade market this offseason, maybe a 2nd rounder, or a 3rd?  Hell, the Browns should be willing to give up a 1st rounder for him.  Antonio Brown is just too good.  Only way the Steelers don't win this game is if Ben gets hurt, or is constantly sacked.  Bengals would be wise to open it up and throw the ball all over the field.  That's where the Steelers are bad, and where the Bengals have a ton of weapons.  If Dalton plays, he already has small hands which cause him issues gripping the ball in the cold weather, so imagine that, and add in the weak thumb.  Just not sure.  But it should be a good game.  And all that being said, i'm rooting hard for the Bengals, but the Steelers win 38-10 and dreadfully head to Denver.

Vikings +5 vs Seahawks
It's going to be -20 windchill at kickoff.  seriously.  who thought playing football outside in Minnesota was a good idea.  Beast Mode is back, but it takes a little bit to get used to the grind.  It's going to be cold, and nobody wants to hit, or get hit when it's that cold.  Unless you're ADP.  I think dude runs roughshod on the seahawks defense.  I also am a believer in teams that got blown out recently play much better in a rematch.  Did I mention it's going to be cold?  Too many people are pimping up the seahawks right now.  Vikes can play the "no respect" card, and should.  They're happy to be back in the playoffs.  maybe i'm rethinking this.  Maybe the seahawks win, but don't cover. maybe the vikings win outright.  I'm not sure yet.  But i'll take the 5 points.  Seahawks win 13-10 in a cold dreary bitter game, and head up the road to sunny Carolina for another rematch.

Redskins +1 vs Packers
Pack is awful.  Redskins will play the no respect card.  I like the "you like that!!!???" towels that the skins are going to throw out there.  Landover Maryland should be rocking.  Skins defense has been really good lately.  Packers haven't done anything right since about week 6.  The book on them is out, play tight press coverage, and they won't be able to throw the ball.  Eddie Lacy looks like an offensive guard running with the football, and plods along.  On the other side, Kirk Cousins has been good, the offensive weapons the skins have are dynamic.  They seem pretty healthy. I don't think this one is really all that close.  Skins haven't gotten any love from the vegas oddsmakers the last few weeks.  I think they beat the packers handily 27-13, and then get ready to be slaughtered by the Cardinals.

Sunday, January 03, 2016

Picks

I guess Blue is better on picking games than me. Congrats Blue. Have to trust the accountants right?

Plenty of scenarios and story lines heading into this week 17. Let's play I wonder.

I wonder if Peyton was healthy who would start
I wonder if the Chiefs winning streak will go for naught in the divisional round
I wonder if Jim Caldwell, Tom Coughlin and Sean Payton will make it past Monday morning
I wonder if Drew Brees is a Saint next year
I wonder if Johnny Football was catching head in Vegas with a concussion
I wonder why the Jags are 6-10 or worse every fucking year
I wonder if Rex Ryan would give up an eyeball to win today's game vs. the Jets
I wonder what is making Keyshawn Johnson so fat
I wonder why my sons breath always smells like the depths of a cows butthole
I wonder if Blue would consider doing this again next year with $$$$ projections
I wonder if Meiz likes men
I wonder if Adam Schefter sucks dick for breaking news
I wonder if the Texans and Redskins feel bad they are in the playoffs
I wonder if the NFC North winner will last past round 1 after beating the piss out of each other tonight.
I wonder if I'll ever get to these picks.

Jets -3 over BILLS
I thought about taking the Bills here but the Jets have too much to lose. They are the better team. I think they have shaken that whole Jets thing so I'll ride with them. Only thing I'm concerned about is that weather. Jets actually throw the ball well, that's gone now with the 25mph winds and snow.

N.E -9.5 over FINS
Pats usually play out and I'm not afraid of the back door cover. Miami stinks, everyone will be fired Monday.

New O +6 over FALCONS
Both teams done, could be last game for Payton/Brees. Some people don't believe that but it's true. I suck dick for scoops.

Bal +9.5 over BENGALS
Cincy should roll and really need that first round bye. But the way the Ravens played last week instead of tanking for Bosa was impressive. I expect them to come out again fired up to be a pain in the ass for their division foes.

Pitt -11 over BROWNS
Browns have already checked out. Boxes in the locker room, post season surgeries scheduled, this is going to be a beating.

HOU-6 over Jax
Seems like every year people expect a bit more out of Jax but they never quite get there. The Texans have had a weird year. The QB situation early on, the Hard Knocks stuff, Clowney, Watt talk, etc. Credit to Crennel who can still coach and Vrabel will be a HC sooner rather than later. The defense has kept that team afloat while O'Brien tried to figure out how to get production out of the offense.

Ten +4 over COLTS
I think Jeff George is playing QB today for the shoes. I'm out on them. They are finished, the staff is finished, the team needs it to rain meatballs for them to make the playoffs. This is dumb. Is mariotta playing? I don't even care. Give me Mettenburg all day.

Skins +4.5 over COWBOYS
Why do I have to pick this game? This is stupid. Skins will sit starters but the Cowboys can lock up a top 3 pick with a loss. Why would they win? It's dumb to win.

NYG -5 over Phi
Odell is back. He's a beast.

Det -1 over BEARS
This game will be played in cold weather. That's all I got.

CAR -10 over Tb
Lock up home field. Go 15-1. I think despite some starters maybe not seeing the field the Panthers will blow out to get back on track and lock up a home game for a super bowl shot.

Oak +7 over KC
Chiefs are sitting some key people. Woodsons last game, get that man a win. Oakland will be a playoff team next year.

DEN-10 over Sd
Broncos still have some scenarios to play for. Chargers are done, they can't score haven't had any consistency since Kennan Allen went out. Broncos D will light it up today.

Sea +6.5 over AZ

Seahawks trying to get back on track here I think will fight towards the end. Arizona will be playing to win, should be one of the only good games today. AZ shooting for home field throughout (if Car loses).

Stl -3 over SF
Seriously?

Min +3 over GB
You spell redemption ADRIAN PETERSON. With Matthews out and the Packers o struggling all year I like the hungry Vikes. Gonna be a cold one.












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