Thursday, December 31, 2015

Week 17 picks

The last post of 2015.  We fell apart in 2015, and I blame Tyler.  2015 has been an interesting year.  I found out I don't like living in San Diego.  It's a great place to visit, but not to live. I found out that 3rd place in my big money fantasy league doesn't get you any money.  I found out that Bruce Jenner always wanted to be a chick. I found out ISIS is bad, but they are not good at using maps. I found out the French may be assholes, but sucks when they get attacked. I found out Black lives matter. I found out that protesting and rioting still happens and can be scary.  I found out the media likes to blow things out of proportion.  I found out that Donald Trump might be the most fun political candidate of all time.  but most of all, i found out that I don't know shit about anything.  Steph Curry, like whoa in 2015.  Mets and Cubs became real teams again.  Deflated footballs are a big deal, until they aren't.  Some people maybe used HGH.  Ronda Rousey is a fake.  Tiger Woods is done.  Peter Rose is still banned.  hockey something. the SEC is not great at football. Chip Kelly sucks.  your mom sucks.  H doesn't want as much attention anymore.  Keith is less of a smart ass.  Tem has no time for this shit (RIP TCS).  EP is worse than me at picking nfl games.  Jug is no longer an astronaut.  Meiz is good at trivia, until he's not. beth still exists (maybe). Tyler changed jobs and waited a long time for some tools to ship (via twitter, not LOV) And people who like star wars are nerds apparently.

On to the picks.  Last week I was 6-9-1 thank you very much.  Brings my annual total to 118-99-6 (.543).  El Padrino was 5-9-1 bringing his total all the way up to 102-98-6 (.510).  I don't know if he can catch me, it would involve math, and i'm not good at that.  I guess there is always the playoffs too.

Bills +3 vs Jets
It's so Jets to lose this game.  Classic.  Rex may have his team fired up for this game.  I mean it's still the team that fired him, and they have a chance to get to .500.  And spoil the Jets playoffs hopes.  It's a tsunami of positives for the Bills.  Jets probably blow this one because of the high they have coming off of beating the living tar out of New England.  Just classic Jets.  Bills win 17-14

Pats -11.5 vs Dolphins
Last game of the Dan Campbell era.  Interesting to see who the Dolphins get to come coach that team.  Pats still have something to play for, they have to win to keep from going to Denver in the playoffs.  Maybe Belichick doesn't care about home field, but I bet he does.  Pats jump out big and coast with Garapolo in the second half.  31-17.

Saints +4 vs Falcons
Falcons superbowl was last week.  Saints are just playing for pride, and could be the last game with the Saints for both Brees and Payton.  Or it could not be, who knows.  Anyway, i think the saints win this outright because the falcons are garbage.  Saints 31-28

Ravens +10 vs Bengals
one thing i learned last week, division rivalries are no gimme.  Even though the Bengals are far and away the better team, John Harbaugh will have his team ready to play and compete, and if they can go into 2016 having beat both the bengals and the steelers it will give them a ton of momentum for next year.  That being said, they won't win the game, but they'll keep it close.  AJ McCarron is not that great.  Look, they moved the ball in the first half against the broncos, but AJ Green and Marvin Jones each had about 3 or 4 catches on the sideline that were spectacular at keeping their feet in bounds to keep those drives alive.  It's not like AJ was shredding the defense.  Anyway, I like the bengals to win because they're the better team 24-17

Steelers -11.5 vs Browns
Another divisional game, pride on the line...etc.  The Steelers won't be fooled again. It just won't happen.  They need some help to get into the playoffs, but they have to take care of their own business first, and they'll do just that.  38-10 and the Mike Pettine era ends in Cleveland with a whimper.

Jags +7 vs Texans
I know Hoyer is going to play, but I just like Blake Bortles better.  Texans are probably going to win, have the better defense for sure.  But the Jags are no slouch, their coach is coming back next year, and they've done some decent things this year.  They haven't been good on the road though, and that's the sign of a young team.  I think the texans win 24-20 so won't cover that spread.

Colts (off) vs Titans
I'll take the colts here in the battle of who the fuck?  If Hasselbeck can't play, who knows who the Colts will throw out there at QB, but it's still better than Mettenberger.  a lot of talk about Chip Kelly going to the Titans next year, but doubtful.  I like either Adam Gase or Josh McDaniels there better than Chip.  Colts will be looking for a new coach too, and both Gase and McDaniels should be on their radar.  How about that for McD, if he were to go to the hated Colts organization.  Maybe there is too much hatred for that.  I don't know. either way, colts win 24-7

Skins +3.5 vs Cowboys
That line has to be wrong right?  Is it because the skins are bad on the road?  has vegas not been watching these two teams. Kirk Cousins keeps the mojo going, they win 24-14.

Eagles +3.5 vs Giants
One of those, our coach got fired, so now we're going to play really hard games.  Giants may be playing to save Coughlin's job.  I don't know, he's got 2 superbowls and who are you going to get that's better.  Giants did not look interested in playing at all last week, so no reason to think they'll be any better this week.  I'll take the points Eagles win 24-21

Lions (pick 'em) vs Bears
Lions are playing a lot better lately.  5-2 in their last seven games, and one was the stupid hail mary game, and the other was a bogus call against the seahawks or they've won seven straight.  Bears were hot for a bit in the middle of the season, but haven't finished strong.  I'm going with the hotter team right now.  This run may have saved Jim Caldwell for another year.  Lions win 31-24

Chargers +10 vs Broncos
Broncos shouldn't be giving 10 points to anyone. Will be interesting to see how short of a leash Osweiler is on, now that Manning is back as the backup.  Will he be looking over his shoulder after every poorly thrown ball?  I think the broncos win this game because of their defense, but unless they get at least 1 if not 2 defensive scores, they don't beat anyone by double digits.  This has the feel of a 17-10 game, so i'll take that for the broncos.

Panthers -11.5 vs Bucs
Panthers need this game to keep HFA throughout the playoffs. And they looked like stink last week, so they'll be focused and come out intense and ready to go.  I like what Winston has done, gotten a little better each week.  The only way the panthers don't cover is if they get way ahead, bring in derek anderson, and let the bucs get a late TD to cover in garbage time.  Which could happen.  but i'm betting against it.  Panthers win 31-17.

Raiders +7.5 vs Chiefs
This is a game the Chiefs have to have.  They could move all the way up to the 3 seed and host a playoff game if they win and the Broncos lose.  So you know they'll come out motivated.  Raiders last game for Charles Woodson.  They'll play their asses off.  Plus it's a division rival, and you don't just roll over for them.  Raiders win and they get to 8-8, so you know the team wants to hit that magic .500 number.  Chiefs have been riding high, and I keep thinking they'll have an emotional let down and get bit eventually.  This is the week.  Raiders win, in shocking fashion on a Janikowski 58 yard FG in the snow 24-23.

Seahawks +7 vs Cardinals
I like how the NFL messed with the kickoff time of the Panthers and Chief's games so that nobody knows if they can just put it on cruise control and not play their guys.  Cardinals still have a shot at the #1 seed, so you expect them to come out and play hard.  Seahawks need to win so they have a shot at playing the Skins as opposed to going to Green Bay or Minnesota next week.  Plus the seahawks just got embarrassed last week.  They are a championship team, so they rebound hard.  Cardinals might be the best team in the NFC, but hawks win this one.  31-30

49ers +3 vs Rams
I'll take the home dog here.  No real reason.  49ers win 21-20

Vikings +3 vs Packers
Pack has dominated this series. A lot at stake for both teams here.  The winner gets to host a playoff game next week, loser goes on the road, maybe against this same team.  Weird scheduling for the packers if they win, they'll have played at Arizona, then home against the Vikings, then home again against the vikings, and if they win that game, go back to Arizona (assuming the cards don't get the #1 seed).  not much to say about this other than, the packers look awful at a time of year you shouldn't look awful.  Vikings had their best game of the season last week and have been clubbing fools the last few weeks.  I'll take the vikings in an upset here 21-17.


Thursday, December 24, 2015

Merry Christmas assholes (and picks) and more picks!

I say Merry Christmas, fuck happy holidays

Was thinking about this the other day.  What is your favorite sneaky xmas movie.  Like a movie that could be on any time of the year, but it also has a christmas theme, but not necessarily obvious.  Like Christmas vacation is great, but it's obvious it's a christmas movie, same with a christmas story...etc. Cmblue's favorite in this category is "love actually".  That's the example.  A movie that isn't necessarily about christmas, but takes place during christmas maybe.  My example, is die hard.  Anytime cmblue makes me watch love actually, we chase it with Die Hard.   Anyway, thought I'd kick that one out there to see if there are any other great ones i can't remember.

On to the picks:  Last week I went 11-4-1 it's a christmas miracle.  I am now all the way up to 112-90-5.  (.554).  That's a good enough week.  EP struggled along at 7-7-1 (not including his miss on thursday night).  Gets his season total up to 97-89-5 (.521).  Hopefully he'll break the 100 win mark this week.  Maybe?

Raiders -6 vs Chargers
Christmas Eve game.  Both teams are hoping santa brings them a new home next year. The Chargers blew their load last week.  Can't believe I missed the "last game in San Diego" undertones coming from that game, and should have known they'd come out fired up.  Rookie mistake.  Raiders played the Packers pretty tough.  Raiders are the better team, and here is to two teams that next year could be sharing a stadium.  Speaking of which, how shitty would it be if the NFL only allowed the chargers and rams to move, and the raiders were stuck in Oakland.  I'll take the raiders to win outright 36-24.

Redskins +3 vs Eagles
muy importante game for the nfc least.  skins win and it all but locks up a playoff spot for them.  or maybe it does lock up a playoff spot, i don't know.  Skins have been playing well the last few weeks and have figured it out a little bit on the road.  Desean Jackson always likes to play in Philly, and maybe kirk cousins is the new santa claus.  I'm riding the skins here because I haven't picked them right pretty much all season (you're welcome eagles fans) Skins win 31-28.

Pats -3 vs Jets
These games are usually close.  I wouldn't put it past belichek (i can never spell his name right), to throw this game just so the JETS can stay alive in the playoff hunt.  JETS have to win out to get in, and hope the Broncos, chiefs, Steelers, lose one more.  And since the chiefs and steelers aren't losing again, it would only be the Broncos that would get left out.  So do I think that Belichek knows this? of course I do.  Do I think he'd create some shenanigans to keep the broncos out of the playoffs, you bet he would.  All that being said, consipiracy theories abound, i'm still taking the pats 31-24.

Texans (off) vs Titans 
I'm guessing it's not on the books because nobody is sure if Hoyer will play.  Who do you hate more, Brandon Weeden or Zach Mettenberger.  I'm going with the team here that has something left to play for.  Also, I think Hoyer will play.  And the texans have a stout defense.  So that's my pick, who do you have?  Texans win 31-10

Chiefs -13 vs Browns
Never thought i'd lay 13 points with the chiefs.  Does Johnny Football have a miracle left in him?  Chiefs control their own playoff destiny.  Pretty sad that the wildcard teams in the AFC, even though on the road, will be favored no matter who their opponent will be.  Chiefs have opened up the offense, and all of a sudden Alex Smith thinks he's back at Utah.  Gary Barnidge rented out a theater for his teammates to watch Star Wars tonight (christmas eve) at 7:30.  Apparently, he invited anyone else who wants to come, on twitter, to join him and his teammates.  I'm sure this will go well.  This game won't be close, i'll take the chefs to win big 38-10.

Colts +2.5 vs Dolphins
No idea who is playing QB for the colts, doesn't matter.  Dolphins packed their season in a long time ago.  Pagano will be playing with his grandkids back in Idaho, this time next year.  I will take the colts in a rout.  17-10

49ers +10.5 vs Lions
Lions have been playing a lot better here in the second half of the season.  makes jim caldwell look all that much worse of a coach in the first half though.  49ers are what they are.  They're tough enough though that they keep games relatively close.  I'll give Tomsula credit for that, they haven't quit on the season yet.  I had this game picked the other way, then decided I can't lay that many points, so while I think the Lions win, it's only by a TD.  Lions 24-17

Cowboys +7 vs Bills
This is one of those games that neither team has anything to play for but pride. Bills seem to be in a little bit of turmoil here down the stretch, whereas the Cowboys are just trying to keep it together.  Shady McCoy is out for the Bills.  I give the advantage to the cowboys.  Kellen Moore will make his first NFL start, which shouldn't scare anyone, but he's gotta be better than Matt Cassell.  Cowboys win in a shocker 21-17

Bucs -3 vs Bears
Lovie will have his team fired up to beat his old team.  Bucs still playing to get to .500 which would be a great accomplishment.  I actually think the Bears are the better team, but for some reason they just can't figure it out.  I'll take Winston and his boys 24-20

Panthers -7 vs Falcons
I could see the panthers losing this game, but I can't see the falcons winning it.  i'm gonna ride the Cam Newton wagon until I fall off I guess.  My aunt has season tickets to the panthers so it's been insufferable to hear about how great they are.  Nobody has season tickets to the falcons, maybe they should move to LA.  Rumor started.  I think Cam and the boys get it done early and don't fall apart late like they did with the giants.  Panthers 38-21.

Steelers -11.5 vs Ravens
Lots of home dawgs this week.  or maybe just two in a row, I don't know.  That's a lot of points for two divisional rivals who usually play tight close games.  But the Steelers are just that much better right now.  Ravens don't even have a QB.  Maybe Mallet, maybe Flacco, maybe schaub.  who knows.  Steelers were impressive last week against the broncos.  Honestly broncos should have won that game, can't seem to figure out how to move the ball in the 2nd half of games though.  Steelers passing game is pretty frisky, but really it's just AB.  the other two are jokers.  I'll take the steelers 38-10

Jags (off) vs Saints
I'm guessing brees doesn't play.  Why would he.  If you're hurt, just heal up man.  I'll take the young upstarts in Jacksonville.  And the end of an era in New Orleans.  I'm betting no Payton and either no Brees, or a really reduced priced Brees, next year.  Jags win 28-17

Rams +14.5 vs Seahawks
Seahawks have been red hot, like fire.  But don't have a running back. and play against a division opponent with a good enough defense.  I still like the Seahawks to win the game, but the rams and headCase Keenum keep it close enough.  Seahawks 31-17.

Cardinals -4.5 vs Packers
How is this not the SNF game of the week?  I'm guessing this was a game that Fox protected or something.  I'm not believing in the Pack.  While I almost took the packers because of the veteran experience in games like this, and usually a let down when a young team clinches a playoff spot (cards), i'm still believing that the packers really suck, and have been staying afloat with smoke and mirrors for the last 3 weeks.  In the end, where there's smoke, there isn't fire, just mirrors, so i'll take the Cards 31-24

Vikings -5 vs Giants
I guess everyone figured out, you can get into OBJ's head.  What a fucking douche man.  Totally a horrible representation out there last week.  Guess what, now that you've taken him away, the Giants literally have no offense.  Giants can't stop the run, can't stop the pass.  It was a hell of a comeback last week, but the vikings are playing for their playoff lives.  (or have they already clinched, i don't know).  Maybe they'll have already clinched by the time they play though.  I do think they're trying to play up and get to that 5 seed though, so they have to keep winning.  I'd rather play the skins in DC than the Packers again in Lambeau.  Although that would make next week interesting considering it would be a preview of the following week.  or it would make it awful to watch.  Anyway.  I'm taking the vikings 31-17.

Broncos -3 vs Bengals
Broncos might need to be ahead by 40 points at halftime.  Fuck, not sure what happens to them in the second half.  I guess that's a sign of piss poor coaching if you can't make adjustments in the 2nd half, or don't expect the other team to adjust.  Frustrating part is that their defense is rock steady (except for covering Antonio Brown), and all they need from their offense is some continuity in the second half.  Just quit going 3 and out.  Fuck.  Vernon Davis has a huge drop in the last two games that would have kept big drives alive.   Osweiler can't throw the ball 45-50 times and expect to win, not at this stage in his career, so they've got to pound the rock.  Miraculously, they've still got a shot at the #1 seed in the AFC.  All they need to do, is win out, and hope that Belichek is playing possum and throws the game against the jets, and then pats get upset in week 17 against the dolphins....so you're saying there's a chance.  Most likely, this game is for the 2 seed in the AFC.  Although if the broncos lose, they could be in trouble making the playoffs, as discussed earlier.  So in conclusion, AJ McCarron sucks donkey dick.  I'll take the broncos 42-7.  Merry Christmas

El Pad
Wash +3
NE -3
Hou -3.5
KC -11
Indyy +2.5
SF +11
Dal +7
TB -3
Car -7
Pit -10
NO -3
SEA -12
GB +4.5
MIN -7
DEN -3

Saturday, December 19, 2015

Picks

Jets -3 over DAL
Something keeps telling me Dallas is going to win because the Jets need to win. But common sense says there is no way Dallas is going to be able to move the ball enough to win.

MIN -5.5 over Bears
The Bears are not very good, nobody thought they would have the amount of wins they have so it's over. Party over you proved your point, no go quietly into the off-season there are teams that actually need these wins.

JAX -3 over Atl

ooopph. 5-0 to being the underdog vs. the Jaguars. Yikes.

Hou +1 over IND
Just add these two teams to the NFC East

Car -4 over NYG
Cam is gonna destroy the Giants defense. Worse defense I've ever seen the Giants have.

Ten +14 over PATS

Why not.

Buf -2 over WASH
Vegas is sneaky.

Kay Cee -7 over BAL
Don't worry the Chiefs WILL lose soon. Round 1.

SEA -15 over Browns
The way Seattle has been playing I would be ok laying 21

OAK +3 over Green Bay
Love home dogs. Especially a cocky young home dog.

Den +7.5 over STEEL CITY
That's a lot of points to give to a defense that travels. Osweiller will put up points, the Stillirs are terrible in pass defense.

Mia +1.5 over SD
The real interview for Dan Campbell, can he keep the team motivated when all hope is lost. On the road, long trip. Short week.

Cincy -5.5 over SF
Plenty of weapons for two time national champ AJ McCarron.

az -3.5 over PHILLY
19-3 when Palmer is the QB - cool stat

NO -3 over Lions
Wow another Monday night banger.

Wednesday, December 16, 2015

Week 15, you mad bro?

You mad bro is still one of the funniest things to me.  Maybe i'm juvenile.  Probably

I wanted one of those hoverboard things, but now you can't buy them because they all catch on fire or something.  The danger and intrigue makes them more desirable.  I won't get one this year for christmas.  Santa is afraid of fire danger toys i guess

I will say it's very odd getting ready for christmas and it's 70 degrees everyday.  going looking for a christmas tree in shorts and a t-shirt just feels wrong.

Company christmas party tonight.  Time to get wicked smashed.  or not, i've got to drive like 30 miles home afterwards.  In my younger days that wouldn't have scared me off, but i'm not younger anymore.  I will report back with any cool pictures or interesting food offerings.

I tried to watch the GOP debates last night. It's hard, not that it's any worse than the democratic ones either, just watching debates is hard.  It's hard not to laugh at the idiotic ideas.  It's just hard.  So drink whisky and enjoy being alive, that's what I say.

On to the picks....last week I was 9-7 (again), not to shabby, EP started out weak 1-8, but finished strong in the afternoon games and SNF and MNF to finish 7-8.  What could have been a disaster was sorted out. Overall season i'm 101-86-4 (.540) and EP is 90-82-4 (.523).  So overall if you'd have bet based on all of our picks, you'd be in the money.  I take this very seriously, i don't want anyone to lose money.

Bucs +2.5 vs Rams
Sorry Tem.  I don't get the bucs.  How do you not hang 35 points on New Orleans at home?  Especially when there is an opportunity that you could still make the playoffs?  Well, that opportunity is gone now, so now you're just playing for crab legs. I guess they could still finish over .500 which would be quite the accomplishment, so not a bad season.  But the NO loss and the skins loss derailed what could have been.  Oh well.  Rams are a disaster.  Fisher is probably getting fired.  The team is moving to LA.  They don't have a QB.  I really think they aren't that far away from being competitive if they could just get some quality QB play.  Maybe they can trade for Johnny Football, or pick up Jimmy Claussen.  Bucs win the game 21-20, sorry tem

Oh by the way, I did win last week and made the final 4 in my big money fantasy league.  So I've got that going for me.  I'm glad I sat Amari Cooper.  I ended up not taking anyone's advice and played Ryan Mathews, since I know you're all interested.

Jets -3 vs Cowboys
On a saturday night?  I mean it's christmas come early.  Jets have been red hot the last few weeks.  You know that Brandon Marshall has a TD catch in 10 games this year. I know this because he's on my fantasy team...booyah.  He'll probably suck now though when I need to win to get in the money.  Eric Decker has like 9 games with a TD catch.  How about 2 former broncos doing it up nice in New York.  I like this Jets team, they could be sneaky good in the playoffs...but then I remember they have fitzpatrick.  Jets are playing for their playoff lives.  3 teams tied for 2 spots, it's sad that either the Jets, Chiefs, or Steelers won't get in the playoffs, but the Colts, texans or jags will.  Stupid. That's about all I have to say about the cowboys, other than Darren McFadden has been a great pickup in fantasy, but he's going to struggle this week.  Dez might explode after this game.  Like literally his head might just explode with brains and blood going everywhere.  Jets win 31-10.

Vikings -5.5 vs Bears
Vikings have had some extra time to prepare.  The vikings are pretty much locked into the playoffs.  Would have to be a disaster finish to not get a wildcard at this point.  That being said, they still need to keep winning.  If they can keep pace with the seahawks, then they'll get the winner of the NFC least as opposed to having to go to Lambeau.  I liked how they rebounded against the cardinals, even if they didn't get the W, they still kept it close.  Good teams like the vikings don't lose to the bears.  I like the Bears though.  Cutler has actually played pretty well.  It'll suck for him when Gase becomes the head coach of the Colts next year though.  (sorry jug).  Bears really need to overhaul that defense, and I see AP going off again for like 175 yards.  The game earlier this season was close.  But this one won't be.  Vikings win 31-20.

Falcons +3 vs Jags
I know the falcons have been bad lately, but c'mon, dogs to the jags?  You know the Jaguars technically could still make the playoffs?  I heard a stat that the Falcons haven't scored a rushing TD in like 7 straight games.  This all seems like bizarro world.  Matty Ice has thawed and now he's matty water or matty steam.  What's the opposite of having ice water in your veins? like you have shit in your veins, or drano or something.  Maybe he's Matty Drano now.  Either way, I like the Jags next year, but not this year.  Should be a shootout, except the falcons don't score a lot of points.  I don't know, i'm all over the place here.  I'll just say that the falcons finally do score a rushing TD or 3 and win the game 42-41.

Texans (off) vs Colts
TJ Yates vs Charlie Whitehurst.  How did this game not get flexed to SNF?  I mean the winner here has the inside track to the playoffs.  Colts win and they basically clinch the division, one game lead with the tie breakers with 2 to go.  I'm making this prediction assuming Luck doesn't play, which I think is a pretty strong assumption.  You know that the Colts haven't had a game where a back has rushed for over 100 yards since like 2012?  That's a real stat. JJ Watt didn't seem super comfortable with his broken hand.  I mean who would, but at least he played through it like a boss, instead of being a pussy (ahem...Andy Dalton).  Texans defense is the difference in this game.   I don't think that TJ Yates drops 51 on the colts like my man Blake Bortles did, but he'll put up 30, and that'll be enough. (by the way, how smart is Adam Gase to not take the 49ers job last year, and yes, he turned it down, now he could be coaching Andrew Luck next year, as opposed to Blaine Gabbert). Texans win 30-10.

Giants +5.5 vs Panthers
Giants seem to be a thorn in the side of undefeated teams.  Panthers have everything locked up, so motivation could be an issue.  Giants always seem to rise to the occasion here.  Giants beat the broncos in 1998 when they were 13-0.  Giants beat the Bears in 1985 when they were 12-0.  Giants almost beat, and then did beat the patriots when they were 18-0.  Actually if you go back the last 30 years, in almost every season, they've given a team their first loss.  So while none of that has any bearing on this game, it's a fun story to tell.  And I like the Giants.  Although, I do hope Josh Norman shuts down OBJ and keeps him to like one catch of 7 yards.  #fantasyplayoffreasons.  Panthers may win, but it's been coming too easy.  I like the Giants to actually pull off the upset, 24-20. (Sorry EP)

Pats +15.5 vs Titans
This one isn't even fair.  That's a gigantic number, but as I told you last week.  Mariota doesn't play well when he's pressured and against the blitz so far this year.  It hurts the pats to keep losing players some defensive tackle that I haven't heard of got hurt, and LG is out for the season now too.  But the pats are a masheen.  I trust in Belichick that he's gonna destroy a young QB.  Gronk is back-ish.  Pats have the #1 seed right in front of them, so I don't see them letting that slip away again.  Don't see how the pats don't steam-roll for this win.  42-10.

Bills (pick'em) vs Skins
Bills are just an up and down team.  One week they are great, the next they suck.  Last week was the suck week.  Skins to me are still smoke and mirrors, can't figure them out one bit.  They've been pretty good at home though, and Kirk Cousins has made him some money the last few weeks.  But I think Rex will try and confuse him some.  I don't have much else on this game except go Shady McCoy.  Throw it to him and let him run all over the skins.  I think the bills win this one straight up, 17-14.

Chiefs -7.5 vs Ravens
Chiefs are red hot right now.  Ravens are a red hot mess.  I think the seahawks killed the morale of the ravens last week, so I don't see the ravens bouncing back this week.  I'm secretly (or maybe openly) rooting for the Ravens to win this game, but that seems ridiculously unrealistic.  Chiefs offense has seemed to figure it out, unless they're in a driving rain storm.  This is a realistic AFC championship game team now that the bengals are going to go in the tank.  I'll lay the points here and let Alex Smith be the savior, 31-10 chiefs.

Browns +16 vs Seahawks
That number is just too high. I know the seahawks have been murdering fools lately.  But c'mon...that's a ridiculous number.  Seahawks are definitely hot, hottest team in football not named the Panthers.  Rounding into form to make another run.  Johnny Manziel actually can play.  He's not too awful when given the chance.  This is a little tougher game, going on the road against a much better defense, but I still think he can keep it kinda close.  maybe i'm wrong, maybe i'm right.  who knows.  Final score seahawks win but don't cover 35-24.

Packers -3 vs Raiders
I like the raiders, but don't love them.  They had no business winning that game last week against the broncos. Drop in the endzone by DT, and Osweiler missed a wide open Virgil Green in the EZ (threw it about 10 yards over his head).  Both of those convert and the broncos win by 8.  Lowest yardage total to win a game in like 20 years or something.  But i digress.  I feel like the Pack kind of figured things out last week.  They can run the ball and throw it to Randall Cobb, they'll be alright.  This is like a home game for Rodgers too, Northern California kid.  Bet you didn't know that, or you probably did.  I like Amari Cooper to have a big bounce back game, especially without a good CB on the packers.  Overall though, the packers are the better team and should win by a TD.  Pack win 24-17.

Dolphins +1 vs Chargers
Chargers shouldn't be favored against anybody.  The dolphins aren't that bad. Can't believe that the dolphins are in a tie game against the Giants on Monday night, and they only give the ball to lamar miller two times in the second half.  Twice?  seriously.  Anyway, McCoy is getting fired in San Diego.  The chargers are moving to LA (although i did hear a guy here suggest that when the chargers move to LA, the jags will move to San Diego).  You know the chargers have scored only 3 points in 3 of their last 4 games, I know that, and now you know, and I do know that you know that knowing is half the battle. So we've got that going for us.  Chargers could get the #1 pick, it's within their grasp.  Although I'm not sure who you take, apparently some defensive players (according to mcshay's first mock draft), but that's not really San Diego's problem (see the 3 points scored stat).  Anyway, dolphins have more talent and the better team...win the game 24-20.

Bengals -4.5 vs 49ers
AJ McCarron is good enough to beat the 49ers.  I like that he basically just looks to throw it to AJ Green.  There will be a lot of young player mistakes like the 2 INTs he threw last week.  But he was in a tough spot.  I mean, he compared himself to Tom Brady in the post game presser last week, so yeah.  I mean he's got confidence, which is not a great thing in a young QB, he thinks he's better than he is.  Fun stat, an Alabama QB hasn't won a start in like 25 years or something.  HA.  fuck alabama.  But that streak ends this week, because the 49ers are that bad, and the bengals have too much talent everywhere else.  Bengals win this game 31-17.

Broncos +7.5 vs Steelers
This is a pretty high number for the steelers.  That defense that denver has is the real deal.  Will they completely shut down Big Ben?  Probably not, but they haven't given up a 300 yard passing day yet this year.  So there's that.  Believe it or not, the steelers defense isn't as good as the Raiders.  It's true.  True story.  If the broncos can run the ball and protect Osweiler (he can't throw it 51 times a game) they'll at least keep it close.  I'm going with the steelers to win here, but they won't cover.  Steelers 20-17. (and I really need Ben and Antonio Brown to have shitty games for fantasy playoff reasons)

Cardinals -3.5 vs Eagles
Eagles seem to think they've got something going.  rough deal for them.  Cardinals are just the better team, and they're hot (maybe with 2 t's?).  I think the cardinals could win the superbowl this year, that's how good they are.  Eagles suck.  Cards win this game 34-10

Lions +3 vs Saints
Lions 35-31 because nobody cares

Saturday, December 12, 2015

Picks

First my Xmas list.

Still need that taser.
Seriously need some sport socks, think the Korean lady is jacking them
Need like an active coat. Like a ski jacket or something
Kristaps Porzingis jersey
Would love 95 air max's og - neon yella, grey, black
Also would love Jordans, the oreo 5's
Need a sturdy 4 man person tent. Top of the line. Coleman?
Personal speakers for the desk at work or a mini dock for an I-pod (2nd generation)
CTshirts.com - 8 of them blues and whites
A mess of Bourbon, Makers 46, Hudson Baby Bourbon, Woodford Reserve and Russells Reserve single barrel
a case of J.Lohr Cab
Need a Rangers tshirt
hot glue gun
a real samurai sword
12" non stick frying pan, high end
Ninja food processor
Silicone baking sheets (Silkpat)
Cole Haan Pinch Penny Loafer and Cap Toe Oxford

Life talk

my wife wraps most of my kids gifts from santa, is she fucking retarded?
My oven is giving me problems, add that to the xmas list
Trump is walling son
Just made myself a triple decker grilled cheese with bacon......not feeling so well
I guess I will never see my abs again
Wanna grow a beard but everyone has one
and my wife wont touch me when I have it
so forget it
Need a vacation
or a blow job

PICKS

Buf +1 over Philly
Philly's ridiculous win was ridiculous. If they played the Pats 100 times that would be their only win. McCoy is going to shred that defense.

san fran +2 over BROWNS
Gabbert > Manziel - say what

Det -3 over ST LOO
Everyone knows the Rams are a one-dimensional on offense. Easy to stop. I would fire Fisher, 4 years is enough. Never had a wining record. USC should have considered him before locking into whoever that guy is (Clay?)

TAMPA -4.5 over Saints
Winston! Told you that boy can play. Him and Mariota. Both can play. Winston's awareness for his age is ahead of where I thought it would be. They are stacked with weapons too.

Titans +7 over NYJ
Because the Jets never cover. And Mariota is special.

Steelers +2.5 over BENGALS
Pittsburgh is pretty much in must win mode, the Bengals have not played a serious game in at least 2 weeks. Not sure they remember what it's like to get punched in the face. Steelers offense is what they call.. High Powered.

Indy over Jax
Don't care who throws Pagano will figure out how to stop Bortles.

KC -11.5 over Chargers
huge line but worth it. Rivers is wearing down, Chiefs are rolling towards playoffs

BEARS -3.5 over Skins
::blank stare::

CAR -7.5 over Atl
MVP MVP MVP - Matt Ryan is having a shitty year. Does he still get to be called Matty Ice?

Sea -13 over BAL
Seahawks are rolling towards the playoffs and Russ is playing out of his mind. Nothing Baltimore can do. Especially with the QB situation.

Oak +6.5 over DEN
Think off a crushing loss I like Denver but I just have a feeling the Oak defense will give Brock some fits to keep it close enough.....

GB -7.5 over Dal

Would consider giving 10-12 points. So I'm happy with 7.5

Pats -3.5 over HOU
Can't see the Pats losing three in a row. Can't

Giants over FINS

Ugly.





Thursday, December 10, 2015

Week 14 yo

Serial podcast started again today.  Interesting story.  would be interesting to hear if Jug were to listen if it would change his mind on the Bowe Bergdahl story, but only after the whole thing has come out. Anyhoo....

baseball trades and FA signings...maybe the rockies can get Jose Fernandez

Basketball, warriors are 23-0, I guess that makes them the best

Henry will probably win the heisman, but i'm not sure he deserves it more than McCaffery.  But then again, maybe people are making a big deal about McCaffery because he's from denver and a white runningback, so they aren't held to as high of standard/expectation..which seems racist.

Last week's picks....i went 9-7, respectable, and EP went 6-9...loser.  Bringing our season totals to 92-79-4 (.538) for me and 83-74-4 (.528) for him.  I'm gonna finish strong, and EP is going to fade in the last 2 minutes like the Giants.

Vikings +10 vs Cardinals
This is a big line.  I get that the seahawks just destroyed the vikings in Minnesota. It's almost like they didn't know that they playoffs started last week.  I get that if you stop AP then you stop the vikings.  But how often has he been shut down two weeks in a row?   Short week, and Zimmer is pissed because he only got one cheeseburger.   I like the vikes to keep it close enough, cards still win 31-24.

Bills (pick'em) vs Eagles
Shady McCoy is gonna run hard, and you know Rex is going to give him every opportunity to stick it to his old team.  Needs about 150 rushing and 2 TDs #fantasyreasons  Overall, the bills are the better team.  And people are jumping back on the eagles bandwagon, but they aren't going to get 3 return TDs every week.  If they do, they will win, but they won't so they won't.  Throw in the distraction of all the Demarco Murray crap, and this eagles team is going to the shitter.   Bills win 24-17

Browns (pick'em) vs 49ers
Johnny Football.  i don't know, this is the worst game of the season.  it'll have a viewership less than the friends re-runs on nick at nite.  In a situation like this, i'll take the home team.   Maybe the browns can move to LA, browns win 13-10.

Lions (pick'em) vs Rams
Lions have been playing way better the last few weeks.  I blame Jim Bob Cooter.  It will be interesting to see how they react after having their hearts ripped out by Rodgers to Rogers.  But the rams are quitting on jeff fisher.  They don't have a QB, and are so one dimensional on offense it's ridiculous.  I'll take the lions 24-20.

My hands smell like garlic and onions right now

Bucs -3.5 vs Saints
Bucs are riding at tidal wave of emotion right now.  They need to throw it to ASJ like 50 times this weekend #fantasyreasons.  Saints are ok, lost their best player though to IR though.  So now it's just Brees.  they played their supberbowl last week, and lost, so the playoffs ended for them, but are just beginning for the bucs.  The bucs may just be able to slip into the playoffs by winning out. I was completely wrong about winston, kid can play, and as long as he's not raping anyone, he's a good QB.  Sorry Tem.  Bucs win the game 31-18

Jets -7.5 vs Titans
I think that may be too many points, but the one thing the JETS do is blitz.  and the one thing that mariota has trouble with is pressure.  So bad combination of the two.  Marshall should catch a lot of passes and at least 2 TDs #fantasyreasons, Jets win 31-20

Bengals -2.5 vs Steelers
I'm probably rooting for the steelers here.  which means the bengals will win.  Interesting dynamic in the AFC, there are 3 really good teams, and everyone else, so there's a big fight for the first round bye.  Bengals control their own destiny, which is an oxymoron because if it's destiny it's already pre-determined, but semantics.  Bengals score a lot of points, steelers score a lot of points, that won't change, AJ Green needs to have 2 TDs at least #fantasyreasons, Bengals win 41-38

Colts (off) vs Jags
I'm assuming there isn't a line because they aren't sure if Luck is going to play.  I think if he plays they lose.  Jags are a stunner, and need to score a lot of passing TDs #fantasyreasons  but i don't think Luck will play so i'll take the hasselbeck's and the colts win to stay in the playoffs 31-28.

Chargers +11.5 vs Chiefs
This line is stupid.  Chiefs are playing great right now, but also against shitty shitty teams.  The chargers are still as shitty team, and I look forward to the chiefs destroying either the Colts or the Texans in the playoffs, but until then, i'm not laying that many points in a division game.  Chiefs win, 31-28.

Bears -3 vs Redskins
Skins are awful on the road.  Bears are awful at home (1-5? seriously), something's gotta give, and I think getting embarrassed by the 49ers is a bigger deal than losing to matt cassell because your best player decides to run backwards 20 yards and fumble.  Skins still have something to play for because the NFC lEast sucks so bad.  is this the year a team makes the playoffs at 6-10?  I think so.  Bears win 28-17

Panthers -8.5 vs Falcons
Panthers are undefeated at home this year.  Falcons can't get out of their own way in any aspect of the game.  I might think the falcons keep it close, but I might also think that doing crack is a good idea, but then I think...."better not".  I like the panthers in a rout to end any chance of the falcons making the playoffs 31-10.

Seahawks (off) vs Ravens
No idea why this doesn't have a line.  No question the seahawks are going to win.  The better question is will they get a pick six.  I think no, Matt Schaub will not throw a pick 6 this week, going out on a limb.  'Hawks win 35-10.

Raiders +8.5 vs Broncos
The Brock train rolls on, but the broncos don't blow anyone out. The only game that they blew somebody out was the packers on the night they put Mr. B into the ring of fame.  Other than that, it's been mostly a one score game.  Broncos D is stout, and tough and fast and whatever else you want to call it.  I think the broncos still win, but don't cover by 8.5, so they win 24-20.

Packers -7.5 vs Cowboys
I don't know, maybe that's too many points.  There are still a ton of flaws with this Green Bay team, but jesus the cowboys are awful.  You don't just go into Lambeau and win unless you're the lions (or the bears i guess), and the cowboys are no lions (or bears).  McFadden should have a great game though #fantasyreasons.  Pack win 31-17

Patriots -3 vs Texans
This is a more realistic line for the Pats.  I don't think the pats bad luck will continue.  Texans need this win to keep pace with the Colts, but that's not going to happen.  Pats D is really tough, texans O is floppy cock.  So i'm going with the pats.  28-24

Dolphins (pick'em) vs Giants
The "who cares bowl".  giants at least have something to play for, but will lose because they can't hold onto a lead in the last 2 minutes.  (you know they'd be like 10-2 if games were only 58 minutes long, but they're not, so they've got that going for them).  Who cares, dolphins win again 15-13.

Thursday, December 03, 2015

week 13 picks

The season is starting to wind down.  It's the final stretch, the countdown to the playoffs...all that jazz.

MLB hot stove is heating up, players nobody cares about are being signed or traded.  what a great time to be alive.

I know nobody cares, but Grayson Allen is 100% classic Duke guy.  White guy, douche, better than most everybody else, has no career after college.  Great guy to root against.

Steph Curry and the warriors, like whoa.  I usually don't pay attention to basketball until after the NFL season has wrapped, but jeez.  20-0, that's right, 20 and zero.  I'm probably jinxing them right here though, so there's that...sorry tem.  I would say the warriors have a legit shot of breaking the 72 win barrier.  If they haven't lost when Kerr comes back, and then they lose, does Kerr get fired? discuss...coffee talk.

on to the picks.  I had an OK week, while EP was in the shitter.  I needed some shitter weeks from him again, glad to see the old EP back.  I went 8-8 bringing my totals to 83-72-4 (.535) and Tony went 4-9 to drop to 77-65-4 (.542), so now it's a race down the stretch.  I'll have to take this serious from now on.

Packers -3 vs Lions
Lions have been playing better, the packers have been playing worse.  This is probably a dumb choice, but I also think the Lions get too excited about beating a shitty Eagles team and think now they can just show up.  The packers know they basically have to win out, just to get a home playoff game.  Playoffs start today for the pack, and rodgers comes through, double checking his way to 3 TDs.  Pack win 35-24.

Giants +1 vs Jets
I think the Jets are the better team, but the Giants are tough at home.  Oh wait, you tell me they're both at home?  If Revis were playing, i'd take the Jets here, but since he's not (probably avoiding getting lit up by OBJ), the giants are the play.  Playoffs start today for the Giants, if they can't win this game, they'll be one back (and 2 with the tie breaker) with 4 to play...tough.  I'll put my money on Coughlin and Eli.  24-20.

Rams +7 vs Cardinals
No CJ2K hurts the cardinals.  The rams are slightly better at home.  I think the cards can win this game, but the line is too big, if they can't cover 7 points against Blaine Gabbert, they can't cover 7 points against Todd Gurley.  Playoffs start today for the Rams, if they lose, they are out. And they will, Cards win but miss the cover 24-20.

Bucs -1 vs Falcons
Falcons are going in the wrong direction, Matt Ryan looks confused lately.  Everytime I pick the bucs to win, they lose, sorry Tem.  Playoffs start today for both of these teams, if the bucs win, they're right in the wildcard hunt, if the falcons lose, they've got no shot at the playoffs.  I like Jameis here, which is scary, 31-24.

Vikings pick'em vs Seahawks
Seahawks have been garbage on the road this year.  Their secondary is lost.  They really miss Dan Quinn.  No Jimmy Graham, back to trying to run the ball and grind it out.  It's going to be cold, and that means ADP will have a field day.  Seahawks run defense is stout, but ADP will dominate, this is where the playoffs start for both teams, and a loss for the 'hawks is crushing, but ADP owns December.  Vikings in a squeaker 21-20.

Bills -3 vs Texans
Playoffs start here for the bills.  The Texans don't need this win nearly as much, since they're in a fight for their division and still have a game left against the Colts.  Bills basically need to win out to get a wild card.  Rex should have the team fired up, and it will be cold.  I don't like warm weather or indoor teams, on the road in the cold in December, unless they're a really good team, and the Texans are not it.  I'll take the bills here, in grind it out fashion 17-13.

Dolphins -4 vs Ravens
Short week, quick turnaround for the Ravens.  The playoffs start here for both teams, if you lose (oh who am I kidding neither team has a shot) then you're out, win and there is still a glimmer of hope.  Dolphins get a bump from changing OCs again.  Ravens still don't have a QB.  Was anyone surprised that Schaub threw a pick 6 last week, nope, me neither.  I think the fish run the ball and control the clock.  Tannehill makes enough plays and they win 20-14.

Bengals -10.5 vs Browns
Austin Davis?  c'mon man.  The playoffs start for the Bengals now, except they really don't, if they lose, they'll still make the playoffs, but they aren't going to lose this game.  They'll need to win out to get the 2 seed, including a big game against the Broncos in a couple of weeks.  The road gets tough for them starting now, and this is usually where bad Andy starts showing up.   Bengals 38-10

Jaguars +2.5 vs Titans
You know the titans haven't won a home game yet this year.  This should be a shootout, and the playoffs start now for the Jags.  Any hope of getting in and they have to win out, so they need to beat the bad teams when they have them on their schedule.  9-7 will win their division, so go win some games.  Jags win in a shocker 38-35.

Bears -8 vs 49ers
Bears still have a shot at the playoffs, but they'll probably have to win out for the most part.  They might could lose one more game and still get in, but it'll be tough.  10-6 guarantees them a spot.  I like how Foxy has this team playing right now, and I think they stomp this craptastic 49ers team.  '9ers are awful on the road.  Bears and Cutler roll 31-17.

Broncos -4 vs Chargers
Chargers tried the "we're going to fire someone to get the team excited" tactic this week, except they fired their special teams coordinator.  Why, are they not running enough touchbacks back for TDs?  Are they giving up too many special teams touchdowns.  I have no idea.  Broncos will run the ball and control the clock.  the Bears game wasn't as close as the score, the NE game was probably a fluke, but playoffs start now for the broncos.  The chiefs are right behind them, they've got a legit shot at the #1 if not the #2 seed in the playoffs, so get on your horse and ride the brock train, for at least one more week.    Broncos 28-17.

Chiefs -2.5 vs Raiders
I really like the raiders, and this is really a playoff game for them.  If they lose this, they can kiss the postseason good bye.  I think they're ahead of schedule though and getting to 8-8 would be huge for them going into next year.  The chiefs, i hate.  There isn't one player on that team that I like, not one.  I wouldn't fuck them with Meiz's dick.  But you know what, somehow Andy Reid has them figuring this out enough.  They've won 5 in a row which is the longest streak in the NFL (if you don't count the panthers), and seem to be playing really well.  I'll take the chiefs on the road in the Black Hole 31-28.

Saints +7.5 vs Panthers
There is something to be said about the pride of Drew Brees and the saints here.  Panthers are coming off an ass kicking on national TV, have extra time to prepare...etc, but I think the Panthers are one of those teams that needs people to not believe in them.  I think the Saints pull a shocker here, and win the game, breaking the streak, and the champagne pops.  Playoffs start this week for the Saints, and drew brees comes through, 24-20.

Pats -11 vs Eagles
This is more about how awful the eagles are than how good the pats are.  Yeah, i know, Tom Brady is pissed, he's angry, whatever.  They don't have any weapons on offense...boo hoo.  Guess what, the Eagles have given up 45 points in back to back weeks, and neither QB was anywhere near as good as Tom Baby.  The playoffs start today for the Eagles, if they don't win (which they won't) then they don't have a shot of catching the red hot Redskins for the division lead.  So the pats will get even this week 45-17

Steelers (off) vs Colts
Playoffs start today for both teams, but really the steelers.  Because the colts have a shit for brains division.  I think Ben will play.  Which makes this game infinitely more watchable.  Although, I think the steelers win this game in a blowout.  38-17, and the matt hasselback legend dies.

Redskins -4.5 vs Cowboys
The skins are really good at home.  I mean there is no two ways around that.  Kirk Cousins plays like he's Dan Marino when they're home, but like Ryan Leaf on the road.  Cowboys are keeping their playoff options open by not putting Romo on IR.  Well if you're going to win the division, then guess what the playoffs start today, basically the cowboys have to win out, and they won't they are like 0-7 without Romo this year, so why would this be any different.  Skins in a rout 31-10.

EL PAD PICKS

Real quick, mad busy yo.


NYG +2 over NYJ
Az - 4.5 over Rams
Tampa over Falcons
Seattle +1 over VIKES
Texans -3 over BILLS
MIA -3.5 over Bal
CLE +10.5 over Bengals
TEN -2.5 over Jax
SF +8.5 over Bears
Den -3.5 over SD
OAK -2.5 over Cheifs
Car -7 over SAINTS
NE -10.5 over Philly
Colts +7.5 over PIT
WASH -4 over Boys






Top Of The Page Material:

"Idiots with nothing better to do"





"Most Boston sports fans are just douchebags. Because most people from New England are douchebags." - tem





"Obama got elected because of the Rooney rule" - Jug





"you should never let debt stop you from pro-creating anyway" - El Padrino





"If you agree with EP, change your opinion." - H





"i'm dumb and sensitive. basically i'm a woman" - L Padrino





"I'm so horny this morning. If there wasn't this sex offender list going around id grope bitches on the train this morning" - L Padrino