Wednesday, October 28, 2015

rough loss (and picks for week 8)

Ouch..rough loss by the Mets last night.  The kind of loss that lingers with you for days, weeks, maybe even years.  I mean, you gave up an inside the park HR to start the game, and then fighting back to have a chance to close it out...and then Alex Gordon. Oh well.  cmblue made fun of Bartolo Colon too.  I guess baseball is the only sport (and maybe only pitchers) where nobody cares about physical fitness. Maybe kickers in football too.

NBA started last night, somebody won, somebody lost.  I'll let you know when the season actually starts in February.

Last week wasn't great for the pick train.  EP did ok with an 8-5 record, and I was 7-7, so at least it wasn't a losing week, but not great.  That brings me to 51-35-3 (.573) and EP is catching up 46-34-3 (.554).

Patriots -8 vs Dolphins
I don't think i've picked a thursday night game correctly yet. (editor's note: blue is actually 1-5 in thursday night games) Forget about the spread, I can't even pick who wins the game straight up.  I watched the 1st half of the Pats game on Sunday, then I went to Legoland.  I had more fun at Legoland.  Brady didn't look great, but really lots of drops from his receivers.  The defense isn't very good.  But they still win.  Dolphins have rode the Dan Campbell wave of emotion for 2 weeks.  Ok, so they beat the shitty Texans and the shitty Titans.  Things get real this week, and no amount of inspiration and big speeches and emotions will help.  I don't think the Dolphins can hang, no real reason other than the Patriots are better.  Pats win this one going away 41-17.

Lions +4.5 vs Chiefs
Dude, another game in London. This is the third game, right, are there more? (editor's note: no, there are no more London games this year) I did watch some of the game on Yahoo last week, i wasn't too concerned about it.  Lions fired their OC right before they go to London, and Jim Bob takes over.  I think you'll see some improvement, just from the shake-up.  (see dolphins above).   Wait, how fucked do the Chiefs have to feel, they have one of the best home field advantages, and they have to trade a home game for a game in London..fuck you Goodell, why can't the Lions be the home team?  Anyway, all that leads to a Lions win 31-28.

Falcons -7.5 vs Bucs
That's a lot of points for a team that barely beat Zach Mettenberger.  I think they were embarrassed last week, and respond this week.  Their at home where they play well, and they actually played better but had a bunch of dumb penalties.   Bucs have to be distraught after blowing the big lead against the skins last week.  That's the type of loss that sticks with you.  Kind of like blowing a save on a HR in the ninth in the world series.  Falcons get right this week 31-21.

Cardinals -4.5 vs Browns
This is a line like the Falcons/Titans last week that didn't make any sense to me.  Although the browns have played just about everyone tough, i  think, I don't know, i'm not looking it up.  Apparently McNown is hurt but he's going to play because Johnny Football is awful or something.  At what point do you turn the keys over to Manziel.  I know McNown isn't the problem, but in the end, you should start making up your mind now if you need to draft another QB next year.  Cardinals outside on the road, in the eastern time zone, daylight savings, short week, lots of stuff.  I'll take the cardinals 43-25

Rams -9.5 vs 49ers
This is more about the 9ers being awful on the road, than it is about the Rams being good.  This line is too high, and will probably come down by kickoff because the Rams shouldn't be 9.5 point favorites over anyone, ever.  Rams do have a great running game, and Todd Gurley is the truth.  They have an awesome pass rush.  9ers have had some extra time to prepare, but last we saw them, they looked awful against an average seahawks team.  I've gone back and forth a bunch on this one, just because of the line, but I'll go with the Rams here 24-10.

Giants +3 vs Saints
Not sure why the saints are favored here.  I guess they've been better the past few weeks, but so have the Giants.  G-men are the better team, simply because the saints defense is awful.   i don't have much else to say about this.  Giants win 27-24

Bears (pick'em) vs Vikings
These are the types of games that the Vikings have to win if they want to be serious about the playoffs.  These are the types of games the Bears have to win to show they've improved some.  I like John Fox, and I like what the Bears have done the last few weeks.  Bears should have all their weapons back this week, and I like all their weapons better than the Vikings weapons.  This is the type of game that John Fox finds a way to win.  21-20 bears eek one out

Ravens -3 vs Chargers
Something's gotta give here.  The Chargers are 0-3 on the road, the Ravens are 0-2 at home, both teams are riduculously under achieving.  I give the Ravens the edge because of the east coast early game rule for west coast teams.  Phyllis Rivers has been pretty damn good, but he's throwing it like 70 times a game. (editors note: he's averaging 44 attempts per game this season, and 62 attempts per game the last 2 games)    Flacco on the other hand is throwing it a lot as well, and he doesn't have any wide receivers other than Steve Smith Sr, or jr or whatever.  (editors note: flacco is averaging 41 pass attempts per game). I don't know what any of this means, but i'll take the ravens 24-17

Bengals (pick'em) vs Steelers
Big Ben should be back, but will he be 100%.  He better be against a great defense like the Bengals.  I'd feel more comfortable about taking the steelers if Ben had a few games back under his belt.  Dalton is playing really well, and this doesn't have the feel of a collapse for them.  The Bengals are coming off the bye, should be ready and rested.  If the Bengals can win this game, it will essentially wrap up the division for them with a 4 game lead and all the tie breakers, which really make it a 5 game lead.  I like it.  Bengals win this one big time 31-20.

Titans (off) vs Texans
I guess there's no line because they aren't sure if Mariota is going to play?  Or are they waiting on news about TJ Yates?  I made a deal that I wasn't taking the Texans again this season and i'm sticking with it.  Titans win 10-9

Jets -1 vs Raiders
Jets have to fly cross country after a tough road loss last week.  Rumor has it that the Jets were pissed that they blew that game.  I didn't watch the 2nd half (legoland remember), but i heard that Brandon Marshall false started or something and the clock ran off when they were in position to tie the game.  And he dropped a pass, and now he doesn't like Greg Hardy.  So to recap, Jets maybe could have won, but I was at legoland.  The Raiders on the other hand, they look awesome.  They're young and so I expect them to be up and down a lot.  This will be a down week, just too tough of a defense, and I'd expect Revis to just take away Amari Cooper.  And with no Cooper, there is no bueno for Derek Carr.  Jets win this one pretty easily 28-17.

Seahawks -6 vs Cowboys
Matt Cassel.   Seahawks win 31-10

Packers -3 vs Broncos
This is not a reverse jinx business.  I think the Broncos have won games against a weak schedule and some really bad QBs.  It's one of those fools gold type of 6-0 runs, like they had the first year McDaniels was their head coach.  Not only have they played a bunch of weak QBs, but it's not like the defenses they've had to face have been much better.  The Vikings probably had the best defense they've faced so far this year. The broncos main problem has been lack of finishing off drives and having to settle for FGs.  Can't do that against Aaron Rodgers.  The schedule gets a lot tougher starting this week, and the Packer's defense is no joke.  I don't think the Pack's offense has looked that great, i mean Aaron Rodgers is still awesome, but the Pack has only been over 30 points in 2 games so far this season, so not putting up Pack like numbers.  I'll go with the averages here, I think the broncos keep it close but eventually lose this one to the Packers  27-23.

Colts +7.5 vs Panthers
Colts have been awful this year.  Panthers have been really good.  Colts can't run the ball, can't protect Andrew Luck, can't win games.  Panthers have run the ball, played great defense and have Cam.  I don't know why, but I just have a weird feeling about this game.  Colts backs are up against the wall.  Cam Newton is maybe too immature and the panthers are feeling too good about themselves.  I kind of like the colts in an upset with their season on the line.  Colts win 24-20.

Friday, October 23, 2015


Few things on the baseball stuff first.

The Cubs will be good for a few years so sorry Andy.  The lineup is boss.   

I think the Royals will be the more formidable opponent.  Because of their lineup depth.  And they have been the best team from start to finish.  They seem to grind out every at bat and just keep moving the line.  They single you to death.  Blue Jays are explosive but can be handled with the pitching the Mets have.  I don't care.  This had been so much fun whatever happens next I'm totally  fine with.  Obviously you want them to win it all but either way, I'm satisfied.  I can't stop thinking about how the future is looking too with this staff.  Even with Harvey leaving after his walk year they will have the goods for awhile if handled right.

Notice in baseball the head honcho is a manager but in all other sports he is the head "coach".

Baseball goes on way too long.  Can't they shave off all division games by 4?  What's the math on that if instead of 19 games they play 15 games vs. their division opponents.  162 down to ________.

Football now.

Cam Newton should have been a pitcher. He was throwing rockets last week.  No idea how WR's catch his balls.

How much easier would the Packers make it look with Jordy?  I really need to bet them by the quarter.  They are always up 14-0 after one.

Pete Carroll thinks they just are not getting the breaks they have gotten in the past.  Like can you be more specific?  The offensive line is a mess right now.  What does that have to do with the way the ball bounces?  Fucking eternal optimists.

Non football thoughts

I think it's gross to brush your teeth in the men's bathroom at work.  Or in any communal bathroom for that matter.  I got my dick in my hand bro.  There is fecal matter in the air.  And dick dander.  Now that's on your toothbrush. 

Seriously those Lincoln commercials are not starting to piss me off.  The bearded dude from Fan Duel is a close second.  Fuck that guy.

JAX +4 over Bills
Surprisingly enough scoring is not an issue for the Jags.  It's their leaky defense.  I don't think the Bills have enough healthy weapons to blow anyone out.  Rex keeps on insisting he can fix this, like as if he doesn't see this as a work in progress.  Relax man, no one thought this team would compete for a super bowl so chill out.  One week at a time.  He's got some issues.

SKINS -3 over Bucs
Is there still RGIII/Cousins talk?  How about both suck.  Just turn around and hand it off 50 times a game and play defense.  Man that HC job has to be one of the worst jobs in America.  My weekend in DC was splendid by the way.  Great town.  I could live there.

Falcons -4 over TITANS
Devonta Freeman runs possessed and Julio Jones is Calvin circa 2011.  Titans have no one on their roster that can stop either of them.  And there is no way they can match Atlanta score for score.  This line is silly to me.  I guess because the Saints trashed them on Thursday night.  I'm sure they have made some adjustment and/or just played poorly.  This is a blowout.

INDY -4.5 over Saints
Weirdest part about the fake punt, they were playing well and were still in the game.  Had a chance there to pin them deep (McAfee is solid) and force a three and out.  Who knows?  Just an awful decision by the head coach.  A "W" will make that shit go away. 

Minny -2.5 over DETROIT
Stafford is alive.  Vikes might have found a real WR.  I can't remember but doesn't Peterson usually strafe the Lions?  Who is the defensive coordinator for the Lions No One?  Play some fucking defense for crissakes.

Steelers over KC
No matter who throws for black and gold I don't like the matchups for KC.  One of the major problems with the Steelers the past few years was aging players.  They have pretty much taken care of that.  This Shazier kid is special.  The big lineman they have is great too.  Brown is a beast, Bell is their version of Forte but better I think.  This is the better football team.  KC is really struggling this year.

ST LOO -7 over Browns
Browns have been pesky no doubt.  I just don't like this matchup for McNown.  When he gets pressured he just turns the ball over.  And they have running game to lean on.

MIAMI -4 over Texans
4?  Remember in Scarface when Tony was hired to kill that politician in the beginning of the movie in that camp under a I-95 overpass in Miami?  Miami is Tony and that politician is the Texans.  Houston is going to get murdered.  And no the Dolphins aren't world beaters all of a sudden but they clearly underachieved during Philbin's time, I kept saying it, and they are light years better than the Texans.  4 points is an insult.  If I'm Campbell I would be saying behind closed doors that we should be favored by 20.

Jets +10 over PATS
Can't say the Jets always play the Pats tight but it sure seems that way.  At least during Rex's first few years they did.  Beat them a few times too.  Once in the playoffs.  This is always a huge game for both teams I think they both consider this their strongest rivalry in the division.  Bowles hasn't really been Belichik'd yet so we'll see.  I think they keep it close because they can pressure Brady with their front.  And Revis knows them intimately.

Oak +4 over SD
So is this a home team for both teams?  Are they in LA yet?  They should play this game in the Rose Bowl.  Would be cool.  Carr to Cooper is a years to come connection.  The Chargers are an unbalanced offense right now.  If I'm Del Rio I'm blitzing the shit out of Rivers.

Dallas +3.5 over GIANTS
I don't know what the Giants were last Monday.  That was putrid.  Dallas's pass rush is coming on and I'm afraid they will just have their way.  Giants are not healthy right now.  And Dallas might get Dez back.  Would really help Cassel.

CAROLINA -3 over Philly
Panthers comeback last week was very impressive.  Even if we all think Seattle lost their fastball.  Could they be 6-0 after only winning 7 games last year?  I think so.  Top 3 story in the NFL.  Rivera if officially off the hot seat.

Ravens +10 over ARIZONA
The Ravens are well on their way to a double digit losing season but I think they have some pride in them and make enough plays to hang around.  10 is a big number in the NFL.

Wednesday, October 21, 2015

Week 7 Pickers

Oh my what a weekend.  A couple of overtime games, a goal-line defensive stop to win the game (Packers), a last second TD to win on the road against the 12th man (Panthers), and the best/worst fake punt in history (Colts).

5 Teams come into week 7 undefeated, which is the most in like 70 years or something.  Packers, Bengals, and Broncos are on a bye so the Dolphins won't be popping any corks this weekend, but week 8, I guarantee at least one of those 3 teams will lose.  You read it here first.  I'm not sure which team, but one of those three are guaranteed to lose in week 8.

That fake punt, unbelievable that you'd think you're going to trick the pats.  apparently they're supposed to look like they're running off the field to get the offense on, but then why is a WR playing center?  Stupid, dumb play.

unbelievable 4th quarter from Cam Newton, just owned the seahawks.  This is a team that won 7 games last year.  They lost all of their weapons and now they've already won 5.

unbelievable that the colts hung with the pats.  Game wasn't really that close, but I expected a much bigger blowout.  I guess it gives the rest of the NFL hope that the pats maybe aren't invincible. (TBD)

On to the picks.  I went 7-6-1 last week, and EP was 7-5-1.  Total for the year is a respectable 44-28-3 for me, and 38-29-3 for EP.  Also, it's too late now, but you should have bought McDonald's stock about a month ago. Everyone loves all day breakfast. (Beast)  And if you're looking for a buy low option, Chipotle is dropping and will come back, same with Tesla.

49ers +6.5 vs Seahawks
I'm not a fan of this game, all thursday night games suck.  Seahawks got embarrased at the end last week, and the wheels are starting to come off the defense.  This is what happens when you have a lot of loud overconfident guys, when it starts going bad, they're not afraid to turn on each other.  The 49ers are a mess, but they've been ok at home.  I like them to keep it close enough.  The seahawks don't score enough points really to blow this one open.  Seahawks win, 21-17.

Jaguars +7 vs Bills
I guess this is a home game for the Jags.  At least they're used to playing in London, so they've got that going for them.  I can't figure out the Bills, they're hot one week, then cold the next.  2 of their 3 losses are against teams that are undefeated, so the schedule hasn't been kind.  I like what i've seen out of Jacksonville's offense lately.  They can toss it around, and having Julius Thomas helps Bortles out a ton.  I think the bills win, but don't cover.  Although, i wouldn't be shocked if the Jags won this game.  Bills win 28-24.

Redskins -3 vs Bucs
The skins are another of those conundrum teams.  Sometimes they surprise you and are super tough, other times they just get their doors blown off.  The bucs aren't that bad, but their two wins have come against an awful Saints team, and a really bad Jags team.  The skins are better than both of those teams.  I think the skins run the ball, control the clock, and win the game 17-13.

Falcons -4 vs Titans
Titans might be without Mariota.  Not sure yet.  I'd sit him if i'm the whisenhunter, because why risk more injury to your future.  The Titans have played teams tough, but haven't been able to hold on and win games late.  They very well could be maybe a little better than their record suggests.  The falcons are coming of a Thursday night embarrassment.  Dan Quinn is going to get in their faces this week.  They'll blitz the heck out of Mariota or Mettenberg, and should win this one by 10 points or so.  If not, the falcons are not for real.  Falcons 24-14.

Colts -4.5 vs Saints
So that fake punt.  I guess that's the play you call when you're the coach and you hate your owner and GM.  I know it wasn't supposed to be snapped.  I know it wasn't supposed to whatever...but c'mon.  You can't trick the tricksters.  You'd have been better off, running a real fake punt.  Especially after the onside kick fail, you know the Pats were on high alert then.  If you can't line up and just beat them, then they're already in your head, and they've won.  All that being said, the Colts finally started to look like a decent team.  The Saints are not.  Colts at home against a horrible defense 38-21.

Vikings -2.5 vs Lions
I think the Lions are a better team.  I think they have the better offense, the better QB, the better defense.  But in the end the Vikings seem to be better than the Lions in all the ways I just mentioned. Peterson has figured out this Norv Turner system.  Bridgewater has shown flashes, but he's struggling.  In the end, this Lions team is down, and their confidence is shot.  I like the vikings here, 24-21

Chiefs (off) vs Steelers
This is a pick'em because nobody knows who is going to play QB for the Steelers this week.  So i'm picking this both ways.  In this choice, i'm assuming Landry Jones is going to play, and i'll take the Chiefs in that case.  I think Landry at arrowhead, would be a huge mess.  In that case, Chiefs 21-17, if Roethlisberger plays, i'll take the Steelers on the road because they're the better team.  Steelers 24-21.

Browns +5.5 vs Rams
Browns offense isn't that bad,except that they can't run the ball. Having McCown try and throw for 400 yards every week probably isn't the best way to try and beat a rams team that has great pass rushers.  That being said, the rams are not that good either.  Nick Foles?  c'mon.  So while the Rams may win the game, they shouldn't be 5.5 point favorites.  I'll take the Rams to win at home but no cover 20-17.

Dolphins -4 vs Texans
I'm not taking the texans in another game this year (which didn't work for me last week).  Dolphins will ride this new coach bump for another week, then they'll be back to their old ways.  Dolphins 28-17.

Jets +10 vs Pats
It's just too many points.  I think the pats are the better team.  I think they'll do their patriot things.  The Jets are really good on defense, but they rely on the blitz a lot, and you can't really do that to Tommy.  We'll see what Todd Bowles has up his sleeve for Brady.  If this number was closer to 6 i'd probably take the Pats, but I can't drop 10 on this game because the Pats defense is just not that good.  Patriots win 31-24.

Raiders +4 vs Chargers
One of these teams will be in LA next year.  Maybe both, but not neither.  I just think the Raiders are the better team right now.  To be fair, i haven't watched one minute of the Chargers this season.  But i've watched the Raiders a couple of times.  Derek Carr is the real deal, they can run the ball fairly well.  Amari Cooper is a stud.  Rivers still has some of that gunslinger in him, and can go out and throw for 500 yards on any given weekend.  I'll take the Raiders to win outright 28-24

Giants -3 vs Cowboys
If the answer to the question is ever Matt Cassell, then it doesn't matter what the question is, your team is awful.  Cowboys are lucky that they're in a weak division, and maybe could still be in it when Romo comes back...maybe.  Giants are probably good enough to win this game by 3.  If I could guess a push, this would be the game (they need a .5 here to swing the betting).  Giants win 28-24

Panthers -3 vs Eagles
Eagles are starting to figure it out a little bit.  But honestly, the only "impressive" win they have was against the Jets.  Bradford is horrible.  If the Eagles can run the ball, they can stay in this game...but that's a huge if, i know.  Panthers just seem to get it done.  This could be a let down week for them.  Coming off a huge win, emotional, on the road....they could stumble, but i'm not counting against Cam here. Panther's defense is pretty good against the run. Panthers frustrate the Eagles, 24-17.

Cardinals -9 vs Ravens
That seems like a lot of points.  But the Cards got embarrassed last week.  They get to come home and right the ship.  They've been scoring a ton of points (up until last week), so I think they get back on the scoring wagon.  Their 4 wins, they've scored over 30 points, their two losses, they've been held under 23 points.  The Ravens have scored over 30, one time, against the Raiders in a loss.   All this adds up to a cardinals win, 35-24.

Friday, October 16, 2015


Oh my god. OH MY GOD!
If he homers off of Arrieta he will homer off of the three Cy Young candidates this year 

I'll never get the whole shift thing.  Why a pro hitter can't slap one the other way, in a crucial at bat, is mind bottling*.  Even when you get pitched inside it can be done.

Greinke was 19-0 in LA when given the lead.

Kershaw and Greinke 4 out of 5 games man.  And they got beat.  That's called beating the best.  It won't be tougher vs. Chicago.  The Cubs have a potent lineup, different challenge.  Rabid RABID crowd.  Will be a great series for America.  America wins.  MLB wins.  This is a lot of fun.

David Wright better get his shit together.

Keith Hernandez was giddy on the post-game show.  Wish those guys got to call these games (at least Darling does).  That must suck.  You are with the team all year long, calling all the games, sitting through the stinkers, the extra innings and then post-season comes and the corporations have their own guys.

Sorry Chicago, I know you haven't won shit in 100+ years but not on the Mets watch.   Thanks for shoving the Cardinals down a flight of stairs.

Obviously wasn't watching the Falcons game and didn't watch any highlights.  How did the Saints trash them?  Turnovers?  Those Thurs. night games are kooky.

Let's get to the picks I don't have all day. 

Blue tells me my record is good. I believe him.

JETS -7 over Skins
The defense should harass Cousins into turnovers.  Because I don't see them getting a change to establish the run on a rested defense who get back all-pro tackle Sheldon Richardson.  He who of fame from driving 120 mph with a kid in the car high as a kite.  But whatever you can do what you want when you can toss lineman around in football.

Az -3.5 over STEELERS
Just let Bell run the Wildcat half the game.  And Arians returns to the scene of the crime.

MIN -4 over Kc
KC was having a tough time winning games with Charles.  Now they have to try without him?  Andy Reid's play calling repertoire will be expanded this week.  Which is not a good thing for the Chiefs and Alex Smith.  Reid : "Let's throw a reverse bootleg with three down lineman as eligible receivers then reverse back and throw a screen to D'Anthony Thomas and have him lateral to Chandandrick West on three, ON THREE!"  Smith:  '**blank stare**

Bengals -3.5 over BUFFALO
I don't like the smell of EJ Manuel coming into this game when T-Mobile limps off halfway through the second quarter.  The Bills are awesome at home but only at full health.  Every important player is hurt.  The whole damn offense is questionable.  No thanks.  This would be ok if the Browns were in town not the Bengals and the red rifle.

DETROIT -3 over Bears
I like how Meiz projects on us that he is some sort of Lions insider.  You got a night job at the DFREEP?  Lions get off the schneid here.  This is their first break on the schedule.  If they go 0-16 I'll change my name to Andy and move to Wisconsin.

Broncos -4 over BROWNS
I thought the Raiders were winning that game.  Defense keeps bailing out Peyton and the offense.  What's going to happen when the weather starts to turn?  They need to get that running game going.  The Browns have been playing pretty well but not sure they have seen a defense this good since the Week 1 game vs. the Jets.  Even if Ware sits I like the Broncos.  Defense travels well.

JAX -1 over Texans
If Red Zone shows me one second of this game I'm going to be pissed.

Miami +2 over TITANS
Interim coaches, especially intimidating intense ones, always win the first game they coach.  Always.  Look it up.  Interim coaches are like 87-0 when coaching the first game.  The Dolphins will be flying all over the place and the oc will commit to the run early with Miller to set up the Tannyhill's.

Carolina +8 over SEAHAWKS
Pretty high line for a team with a lot of problems.  Leaky offensive line.  Cary Williams is getting abused opposite Sherman.  Jimmy Graham is an innocent bystander on offense.  Carolina has been a bit of a surprise although I'm not sure they really played a GOOD team yet.  So this is a nice test here on the road.  Off a bye, Cam got a chance to rest his body, I'll take him and 8 points to bank.

San Diego +11.5 over GREEN BAY
Good grief this is a high line.  I know I said last week I'll lay the points every week with the Packers but 11.5 to a pretty good team is a little much for me to risk. 

SF +1 over Ravens
This was a tough decision because both teams suck right now.  Question is who will suck worse on Sunday?  If  Flacco had any playmakers on offense I would take them but the pantry is bare.

PATS -10.5 over Colts
Well that line changed huh.  Was 8 yesterday.  Whatever like Blue said, which is an LP line, this line couldn't be high enough.  Remember this is Brady IDGAF campaign #2.  The last one was pretty damn impressive. 

Giants +4 over EAGLES
Could we talk about Eli's throw last week for a minute.  Not the boneheaded pick in the end zone wiseass.  The game winner.  That was a playoff throw.  His clutch throws never surprise me.  The dime to Manningham is probably the best throw I've ever seen and will ever see.  The Rothlisberger/Santonio Super Bowl throw is a close second.  Anyway who are the Eagles to give points?  Whether OBJ plays or not I think the Giants are in this one.

Wednesday, October 14, 2015

bam diggity (and week 6 picks)

So Lamar Odom likes brothels...join the club buddy.

Hillary looks like she might ruin EP's life for the next year or so.  His head my literally explode.

Baseball playoffs have been fun.  I've really enjoyed the cubs and the astros.

Picks have been good the last two weeks, i was 8-4-2 last week, EP was 7-4-2, bringing the total for me to 37-22-2 (i'm so money and i don't even know it), and EP up to 31-24-2.  Fucking ties. Stupid pushes, who sets a line without a half point anyway.  Vegas sucks, so does Reno, and laughlin.

Here are my unbelievables:
unbelievable that Todd Gurley is the second coming of AD.  If the Rams had a QB they'd be good.

unbelievable that I keep picking the texans and they keep letting me down.

unbelievable that Cutler has led two straight last minute drives to win games (where are his gut wrenching interceptions???)

unbelievable that the Lions are the only winless team...wouldn't have been in my first 20 picks of teams to be winless after 5 games.

On to the picks
Falcons -3.5 over Saints
Falcons just keep finding a way to win.  Every game is tight, they've been behind in the 4th quarter of every game, and yet they're still undefeated.  Team of destiny?  probably not, eventually that evens itself out.  But it was encouraging to see the Falcons win when Matty Ice had a bad game.  Saints are garbage, their defense stinks, something is wrong with Brees, and they won't be able to keep it close.  Falcons 38-21

Broncos -4 over Browns
Browns offense hasn't been that bad really.  McCown put up some crazy numbers last week.  Well they have to play against a little better defense this week.  Broncos offense has been awful.  I can't describe how bad it's been, but kind of like the Falcons, the defense finds a way to make big plays and win in the end.  Broncos luck will run out soon enough, but not against the hapless Browns.  I don't like going east and playing an early game for the Broncos, and i'm probably jinxing them here, but I can't justify taking the browns.  Broncos 17-10.

Redskins +7 over Jets
I just think that's too many points for the Jets.  Jets are the better team, they'll harass Kirk Cousins into making mistakes for sure.  I think the skins run the ball and play clock management game and keep it low scoring and close.  Jets win in a skunk fest, 10-9.

Steelers +3 over Cardinals
Bruce Arians will have something special for the Steelers i'm sure.  But early game again, traveling east.  Steelers might have Ben back, doubtful, but maybe.  I still think the cardinals are not that good on the road i'm taking the steelers here, 21-20 on a leveon bell fake field goal

Vikings -4 over Chiefs
Chiefs season ended when Jamaal Charles went down.  Just pack it up and go home.  Try and get the first overall pick and draft a QB, or even get a top 3 pick, there should be enough good QBs.  I think you'll see a steady diet of AD this week for the Vikings.  They are sneaky good on defense and should be able to handle the chiefs no problem.  Vikings 24-10

Bengals -3.5 over Bills
I thought about this one a long time.  But in the end Cincy is the better team.  I wouldn't be surprised to see Buffalo win this game, they are awesome at home, but i'm riding this year's early season team of destiny (that's not named the patriots).  Bengals are the scariest team in the AFC, even though I think the Bills get to Dalton a few times, much like the seahawks did.  Bills won't have shady, they won't have Karlos, they may not have Tyrod, they probably won't have Sammy, who the heck do they have...because Percy Harvin can't be the answer.  Bengals 21-7

Lions -2.5 over Bears
Another tough one.  I think the Lions get it done this week though.  Finally a winable game for them, and while Cutler has been good enough the last few weeks, eventually he'll come back down to earth.  Bears defense just isn't good enough to keep the lions to 17 points that they'd need to win.  Lions win the game 24-18

Jaguars (pick'em) over Texans
I'm not picking the Texans the rest of the year.  Jags 28-24

Dolphins +1 over Titans
A winnable game for the Titans, but I think with a new coach the fins come out pissed and play their asses off.  It's embarrassing to get your coach fired 4 games into a season.  They have too much pride and talent.  They'll get a boost for a few weeks, but it will be fools gold.  Dolphins 28-21

Panthers +7 over Seahawks
The line just seems a little big.  Seahawks probably win the game.  Carolina just doesn't have enough on offense but a very stout defense.  Seahawks haven't blown anyone out other than the Jimmy Clausen led Bears so I think it'll be closer than the 7 points.  Beast Mode is back but so is CAM.  I'll go with the seahawks to win and not cover 21-20.

Packers -11.5 over Chargers
Not sold on this Chargers team, and think the packers bounce back at home this week.  A-Rodg can't be happy about the way he played.  They'll get Eddie Lacy involved and cram it down the chargers throat.  nothing about the chargers makes me think they can keep it close, and i usually don't give the double digit points in the NFL, but here's the exception.  Packers 35-21.

49ers +1 over Ravens
Both of these are teams I keep taking when I shouldn't and they keep letting me down.  I like the 49ers here, just because they are home dogs.  No steve smith for the ravens, no bueno.  49ers win to quiet the critics for a week, 24-20.

Patriots -8 over Colts
I don't think you could make this line big enough.  This is the epitome of the revenge tour.  It could be 20 and i'd lay the points.  Colts have been awful this year, and yet keep winning games somehow, pulling them out of their asses.  I think LG Blunt* has a big game again this year, and Brady has this game over by halftime.  I'm taking the Pats in a rout, 42-17.

Giants +4.5 over Eagles
This line boggles me.  Eagles are favorites because they looked good against the saints?  To heck with that.  Giants have been solid all year, probably should be 4-1 other than Eli and Coughlin losing their minds that first week against Dallas.  Eagles don't have anything worth a damn.  Chip Kelly could be coaching in Texas or South Carolina or Southern Cal next year.  He's probably already cleaning up his resume to circulate  Giants win 24-20.

Friday, October 09, 2015


I mean October baseball yes?


I love how Harvey has 65 starts under his belt and is already being treated like a 10 year veteran.  That guy has tremendous balls.

9:45 is late.  I'm old now.  Not sure I'll be able to keep the peepers open.  I might have to try cocaine.
Maybe a late night espresso w/zambuca

Blue seems to be doing well on his NFL picks.  Congrats Blue.  There is a spot for you at Stocks and Sports, LLC.  I'll even hire you a pretty chick with big hooters we can all sexually harass.

Matt Barnes seems like a reasonable person.

This Patrick Kane story is nutty. 

Stephen A Smith is still an asshole.  Man he is the worst.

Bears +10.5 over CHIEFS
It's both hilarious and gratuitous that this line is so high.  The combination of Forte/Jeffrey/Bennett keeps the Cutlers alive and well until a backbreaking turnover.  Bears cover, Chiefs win.

CINCY -3 over Hawks
Seattle is still out of sorts.  No Lynch potentially.  Deep funk.  Maybe it's because Russy is hitting skins now.  Remember everyone gets shittier when you start hitting steady pussy.  The Bengals at home, early start with Seattle coming off a short week in which they were handed a win by the refs = Yes please.  Also remember, Dalton won't start sucking until the back nine.

Redskins +8 over FALCONS
I think two things.  You can totally tell Quinn has his made an immediate impact on this team.  They are playing so well on defense, his calling card with Seattle.  Really well with not so much talent.  A testament to his coaching skill on that side of the ball.  Which makes their decision to wait for him post Super Bowl was smart.  Two : They have taken advantage of the shitty start by the NFC East teams and beat up on a future 4-12 team.  Playing their fourth NFC East team, Washington, I think the Skins will keep it close.  At least 8 points worth. 

TB -2.5 over JAX
Hamster time.

PHILLY -5 over Saints
Chip Kelly is a disaster.  Every week it's something else.  He is getting roasted.  But this feels like a game where DeMarco Murray finally gets his touches and blows by New Orleans on his own. 

Browns +7 over RAVENS
Who is playing WR for Baltimore? 

GB - 10 over St. Louis
Green Bay is going to end up going like 10-4-2 ATS this year, something like that.  So I'm just going to ride that.  For now.

Buffalo -1 over TITANS
Remember when Pettine blitzed the shit out of Mariota?  Yeah that.

Arizona -2.5 over DET
My god Detroit has a schedule from hell.  Man AZ is gonna wipe the floor with Detroit.  Boo City.

NE -10 over DALLAS
Man 10 point dogs in their own building.  That has to be a Jerry's World record. So much for Brandon Weeden being the most gifted passer alive.  Off a bye week New England is like 7898780-2 against the spread.  I wonder if Brady is pissed everyone is fawning over his supermodel wife?  Good grief.

OAK +4.5 over Broncos
Raiders win outright.  WRITE IT DOWN.  Carr is going to be flinging that thing all over the O.CO with quickness to negate the pass rush.  You think they scrubbed that Jack Del Rio DNA off that team yet?  No way.  Del Rio goes deep son.  DEEP.

San Fran +7 over GIANTS
Kaperdick missed daddy Harbaugh big time.  I think the Giants shouldn't give anyone points.  When the Giants are expected to do great things they fall flat.  They need to be written off and discarded to win.  Spags is doing wonders by the way with that defense.  Especially when you consider they have no pass rush.  Jason Pierre Claw is the best fantasy name I've ever seen.  Also shame on the NFL for depriving the Giants of a west coast team, 1pm victim.  As Stephanie Tanner would say, How Rude!

SD -3 over Pittsburgh
Poor Steelers.  I don't think they will win a game until Big Ben comes back.  What a difference man. By the time he does they might be out of the playoff picture.  Backups are hard to come by too.  I mean half the league is starting a backup.  Where have all the QB's gone?  College is not producing.  Time to start a developmental league in America.  NFL needs a farm system.  This college kids that put up large numbers are all products of quirky systems. 

Thursday, October 08, 2015

Blue's choices

Well that was a historic week for me.  11-4 ATS, yahoo!.    EP was 7-7, bringing our totals for the year to 29-18 for me (that's pretty good) and 24-20 for EP, which is better than bad.  Honestly you could just fall into some of these picks, I mean, how does Vegas have all these big hotels if they can't even set the lines right.

(interrupted for baseball talk) The two road teams won the wild card play-in games.  Both had the better pitchers going.  Arrietta is just unbelievable, and Kuechel, well he's got a beard, he's named Dallas and he plays in Houston, so he's got that going for him.  Home field advantage is overrated in just about every sport other than football.  Football there has to be communication, so there is a distinct advantage to the home team when there is crowd noise.  Baseball, maybe it effects the hitters a little, but i'm not into that.  The one spot where it helps in baseball is comfort at the plate, that you're used to seeing the things you're seeing when you look out there beyond the mound, or defensively if you know the outfield wall, or whatever.  But for the most part it's overrated.  Basketball it's all about adrenaline, there really isn't an advantage other than yeah, whatever, Marty Mcfly already told us the Cubs win the World Series this year.

Back to the picks

Texans (-4.5) over Colts
Colts suck, and they won't have Luck again.  Colts should have lost their last two games and should be 0-4...but they aren't.  Hasselbeck gets the start, he's sick, on a short week, on the road, against JJ Watt.  My only concern with this line is whether or not the Texans can score enough points.  I'll take them here though, 17-10.

Bears (+10.5) over Chiefs
Arrowhead is a tough place to play, but that's way too many points for an average Chef's team.  Bears will have Cutler and Jeffery back, and are starting to put together enough pieces back on offense to keep this one close.  Chefs have their backs up against the wall, should come out swinging, and have a really good pass rush, but don't have enough firepower to drop 35 or 40 on the bears (they're still starting Alex Smith right?).  Foxy isn't afraid of arrowhead, or Andy Reid, and I would imagine they keep it close, but lose in the end.  I'll take the Chefs to win, but won't cover 24-20.

Seahawks (+3) over Bengals
I'm going to regret this one.  Bengals might be the most complete team in football.  They're at home against a West coast team in an early game (bad recipe for the seahawks) on a short week.  That defense though, starting to round into shape, having Kam back makes a ton of difference.  The bengals have a ton of weapons, and have been playing great.  I'm flip flopping back and forth on this one, but here's my tipping point.  Andy Dalton has been fantastic, he's looked awesome.  But, if you break it down, like I do, he's actually got the worst QBR in the league when facing pressure (it's true, look it up).  He just hasn't faced much pressure this year so far, and that's a small sample size. But, I think the seahawks bring the pressure.  They get to him a few times, knock him down a bunch, and he has an average game.  Final score, Seahawks 21-20.

Falcons (-8) over Redskins
This is a tough line.  I think the skins are better than being 8 point dogs. They run the ball and play great defense.  Atlanta at home against Kirk Cousins.  That running back kid the falcons has (Devonta Freeman) seems to score a lot of fantasy points, and Kyle Shanahan has this offense clicking.  The Falcons have had a really easy schedule, and this finishes out the 4 game NFC east sweep.  They are probably the most fake of the undefeated teams, but a win is a win, and looking at their schedule, they could easily be 9-0 before they play a "playoff team" (albeit one of the NFC east teams has to be a playoff team).  By the way, is there an easier schedule this year than drawing the NFC East and the AFC south, seems impossible to play two weaker divisions, add to that you get to play the bucs & saints twice each, and that's 10 wins without even breaking a sweat.  Falcons win this one 31-18.

Bucs (-2.5) over Jags
Look for Jameis to bounce back.  Jags are a hard luck team.  No real reason here, it's a toss-up and the winner gets to rule florida for the year.  Bucs 13-10.

Eagles (-4.5) over Saints
Another blockbuster game. Two coaches who will probably both be looking for work at the end of the year.  They can fight over the Texas job (hook 'em horns).  Eagles suck, saints suck.  Eagles at home I guess.  Saints defense is so bad, that even bradtard can have a good game.   Eagles 31-17

Ravens (-7) over Browns
The NFL schedule makers must have hated this week.  Another awful game.  Browns have been close in every game, but the JETS.  At some point don't you just have to start Johnny Football and say to hell with it.  I get you think that McCown gives you a better chance to win, but he won the one game he started, so I think Pettine doesn't get it.  Pettine is probably fired after this season.  Ravens 17 - 9

Packers (-10) over Rams
Is there a more sure thing than the packers at home.  Rodgers has been unreal at Lambau, and I don't believe Nick Foles has a chance in hell here.  Rams jumped up and surprised another super red-hot QB last week, so it's not out of the realm of possibility here if they can run the ball and...who am I kidding.  Packers 28-17

Bills (-1) over Titans
Titans are home dogs.  I think that Rex will just have too much for Mariota.  If the bills can stay out of their own way, then maybe they win this game.  Funny story about how rex is making guys do pushups in practice for penalties.  I'd laugh my ass off if in the game somebody pulled a Willie Mays Hayes.  Guy gets flagged for PI, and just drops down and starts doing pushups.   In the end, this might be a fun game to watch.  I like Mariota, and Whisenhunt has kept it simple enough (2 reads) for mariota to be successful.  So, the Titans keep it close, but can't get the win  Bills 23-20

Cardinals (-2.5) over Lions
Will the Lions win a game?  Tough schedule for sure to start the season.  This is an afternoon game, so it must be the FOX game of the week, no other explanation.  Cardinals bounce back from a tough division loss, and their CP3 gets back on track this week.  Cards are built for the dome, and Ford field is not a tough place to play.  Cards 37-8.

Pats (-10) over Cowboys
I hope Gisele does come to the game, she'll be leaving by halftime.  If there was another reason to poke the bear, jesus Greg Hardy.  Pats were already going to crush Weeden, and now...good god.  If I were a betting man, i'd say the Pats drop 40 on the hapless cowboys.  Pats 45-21.

Raiders (+4.5) over Broncos
Broncos just don't blow teams out.  Raiders should have won last week, heart breaking.  they've got some confidence, and there is nothing that Del Rio wants more than to shove it in Elway's face.  Del Rio knows the weaknesses of each of the individual guys on that Broncos defense (because he made them play like shit last year).  I still the broncos pull one out at the end, but it's closer than the spread.   Broncos 24-21.

49ers (+7) over Giants
Too many points for a not so great Giants team.  The Jim Tomsula watch is on though.  Kap will have a better week, and they travel cross country (but it's a night game).  I feel like Sunday Night Football might be stuck in the 90's cuz this would have been a great game then.  As it is, another week, I won't be watching.  Giants squeek one out 21-20

Steelers (+3) over Chargers
The chargers are not good.  The Steelers are good enough, no way they should be the dogs here.  Again, like last week.  The steelers still have Leveon Bell and Antonio Bryant.  Maybe this one is a shoot-out.  Maybe the steelers don't go stupid.  Maybe the steelers can make a field goal. Steelers will have had extra long to prepare after playing on a Thurdsay, so Vick should be a little more comfortable. Steelers win outright, 28-24.

Friday, October 02, 2015



If Trump was president that Joaquin would not get passed the wall.

Damn that NL Central is tragic. 

Do you celebrate getting to a one game playoff?  Should be much more muted than a division title right?

Go away Astros.  No one likes you.


Luck is looking like the hot chick you can't believe married you and now is a complete pshycho.  Luck is Gone Girl. 

I mean you can't be more of a dumpster fire now than the Lions.  Ravens are close but the Lions win.

Fuck London.  Told you Joe Philbin was a tool.

Clearly wrong about the Bengals.  Jesus.  As a side note Dalton looks like the red Angry Bird.

Why is Manziel being cock blocked?  The real reason.  This Pettine guy really can't believe McCown is better right?

Fins +1.5 over JETS
I really want to pick the Jets here but they haven't shown any semblance of a running game and their current RB's are banged up and/or garbage.  Fitzpatrick was a disaster last week.  Revis is not 100%.  On the other side the Fins are still picking up their collective teeth off the floor after the Bills went ahead and kicked them in last week.  Usually teams respond after those beatings.  I say the Jets lose, and use the bye week to prepare Geno.

Jax +10 over INDY
Only the Patriots go anal on this team.  10 is too high.

BUFFALO -5.5 over Giants
Bills are struggling with injuries but are home and can pressure the QB.  I think Tyrod Taylor, without Watkins, shreds the Giants weak secondary.

TAMPA +3 over Carolina
Love me some home dogs.  With Evans back in the mix the Bucs have more firepower than the Panthers.  The Panthers have won 3 in a row but all of them have been ugly and all of them have been against weak offenses.  This Tampa offense is pretty good.  If Mr. Winston can avoid the mistakes they should pull ahead late for the W.

WASH +3 over Eagles
Yum another home dog to eat.  Sloppy game, the field will be a mess, Bradford is a mess and the Skins will be able to run the ball.

Oak-3 over BEARS
This home dog does not look appetizing.  The Bears are trading away assets in between weeks 3-4 for future picks.  I would think that gives off a shitty vibe to the team. 

ATL -7 over Texans
Who is covering Julio Jones?  Here is your suicide pick.

CINCY -4 over Chiefs
Andy Reid is ruining this Chiefs team.  Stop calling cute swing passes to Jamal Charles.  Run the ball downhill with Charles and Davis, throw the ball to the TE and Maclin.  That's it.  Stop it already.  the globetrotters play in Harlem.  Dalton is playin like circa 2002 Farve.

SD -7.5 over Browns
I don't know why Manziel isn't playing.  McCown is a back up.  Not a sustainable option.  Shouldn't you be kicking the tires on Manziel the rest of the year to see if you need a QB this off-season?  Chargers are going to rip like 5 in a row starting this Sunday.  Just a hunch.  They've had a complicated stretch to open up.

Green Bay -9.5 over SF
Only the Pats are playing better right now.  Packers roll.

AZ -7 over Rams
Only the Pats and Packers are playing better right now.  That offensive line is banding together like Marines in a bunker to protect Palmer.

Min +7 over DENVER
First real road test for the Vikings.  I'm thinking Denver pulls one out but I think it will be a dog fight.  A running game on the road is so valuable.  Especially vs. the talent the Broncos have on the ends.  Zimmer will have some coverages and blitzes Peyton will struggle with.  The horses in a tight one.

Cowboys @ Saints
No line currently due to the fact that Brees is a game time decision.  I think the Cowboys win by a TD regardless.  The Saints suck.

Detroit +10.5 over SEA
Yes the Lions are a dumpster fire right now.  But 10.5?  The Seahawks have been sluggish thus far.  Lynch is nursing a hammy.  I don't like the line is all.  Extra days rest for Stafford.  Tate playing with all kinds of chips on his shoulders.  Again they have to run the ball.  Nobody runs the ball anymore.

Thursday, October 01, 2015

Week 4 Picks

Well week 3 was fun.  I went 9-7 again, bringing my total for the year to 18-14.  EP had a stronger outing going 10-5, so now he's 17-13.  We'll make you money

only a couple unbelievables this week.

unbelievable that the raiders are 2-1, maybe they are for real?  maybe we don't get too excited by beating a shitty browns team

cardinals are just plain unbelievable

unbelievable that both teams who had huge lines (over 2tds) this last week both covered...doesn't happen often, but around here we call it the blood moon.

Jersey Mike's makes the best subs

On to the picks

Steelers +3.5 over Ravens
Home game on a short week.  Ravens got beat up by Cincy, now have to travel.  I get that the steelers won't have rapelisberger, but last time I checked they still have antonio brown, and leveon bell.  So give them the advantage here, plus they're home on a short week.  Ravens looked like a dumpster fire, but not the cool kind of dumpster fire, the crappy ones.  If they couldn't cover AJ Green, imagine what Antonio is going to do to them.  Steelers 21-17.

Dolphins +1 over JETS
IN LONDON??!!! (joey tribiani voice).  This london shit is for the birds.  If I was a phins season ticket holder i'd be pissed, what do you mean they only get to have 7 home games.. fuck you NFL.  That being said, the game will be over before I wake up.  Dolphins got beat down, and typically I think decent teams respond the next week after a beat down.  Jets got beat down too, but they suck, so i'm taking the dolphins here 21-17

 Jags +10 over Colts
Jaguars got annihilated last week, should play better this week.  Colts still look like garbage, and now Andrew Luck's arm might be hurt, or some crap.  10 points is too much to be giving up when your team smells of foul goat's testicles. Somebody picked up Blake Bortles off the waiver wire in my FNFL league...serious. Jaguars keep it close, probably still lose though, but they'll cover.  Colts 21-17

Bills -5.5 over Giants
Bills are the best team in New York, no doubt about it.  But then again, they've been the best team in NY for the last 20 years or so, since the Giants and Jets are really in Jersey.  Tyrod Taylor has shown up.  Making Rex look like a genius again.  Shady McCoy is probably out this week, but not a big deal, they have Karlos.  I think Sammy Watkins is hurt too though..I don't know, research is for interns.  Giants should be well rested, and the NFC east is a toss-up right now with Romo out.  Maybe this is the division that a 7-9 team wins it.  Still i'm taking the Rex's at home in a rocking stadium for the battle of New York.  Bills win this one 21-14

Panthers -3 over Bucs
Can't believe that the Panthers are going to be 4-0.  Very unlikely 4-0 team.  Road game, schmoad game, i'll take Cam over Jameis right now.  The Texans ran all over the bucs last week, and the Panthers are much better running team.  It's that simple.  Panthers 21-17

Skins +3 over Eagles
Eagles should not be road favorites against anyone.  except maybe the bears, but that's not who they are playing.  Skins ground and pound.  They've had extra time to prepare.  They won't be tired.  They have the better defense.  Sam Bradford has a vagina....etc.  Skins in a rout  21-17

Raiders -3 over Bears
That just happened.  Not only are the raiders a road favorite, but I actually think they'll win.  Don't think the Bears get shutout this week though.  I wonder if Jay Cutler sat at home smoking his cigarettes and fucking his model wife, smirking, the entire game.  Who am I kidding, he didn't even watch the game last week, and neither did I.  I did watch the raiders some, and their offense is starting to be a little bit more explosive.  I got them in this one, Raiders 21-17 (by the way, raise your hand if you thought the raiders would be 3-1 through the first 4 games of the season.  Put your hand down Tyler, you liar)

Falcons -7 over Texans
I like the moxy that the falcons are playing with.  Came back strong on the road in the 2nd half against the Cowboys.  I bet that Dan Quinn went in at half time and realized they were playing against Brandon Weeden.  Guess what, this week its Ryan Mallett...ahahahahaha.  4-0 never felt so easy.  If this game was in Houston, i'd give the texans a shot, but it's not, and I liked hard knocks.  Maybe they shouldn't have cut the guy with the cool socks.  Falcons win 21-13

Bungles -4 over Chefs
This is a game where I don't like either team.  Cincy has looked damn good so far though.  They were champions of September this year.  Crown their asses.  Chefs haven't figured out that they can throw the ball further than 5 yards downfield.  Yes, the rules allow it.  I almost went with the Chefs here because of the decent team responding after a bad week (or 2), but decided I'd rather be right, that stick to that rule.  Bungles 21-16

Browns +9 over Chargers
9 points is just too much for a team that gone blown out in Minnesota.  Chargers can't stop the run.  Browns can't run the ball...something's gotta give this week!!!  In what will be the least watched game of the weekend (except that London crap), the Chargers roll to the win, but they can't cover 9 points.  Chargers 21-17.

Packers -9.5 over 49ers
Maybe the 49ers are just better at home,  but i'm completely off the bandwagon that I was never really on.  Do you think that Aaron Rodgers remembers that the '9ers took Alex Smith instead of him.  Aaron could have stayed home in the city by the bay, and been a cult hero.  Instead he's gotta go bang hot chicks in Wisconsin.  Nobody likes cheese that much.  He's going to destroy this team, big vendetta against them.  Packers roll in this one 21-10.

Cardinals -7.5 over Rams
Carson Palmer is on fire and Stan Kroenke wants out of St. Louis so bad he set the turf on fire last week.  Todd Gurley maybe had the worst game of his life.  Rams looked so good in week 1, what the hell happened.  They still have a stout defensive line, but apparently the only teams they can beat are the seahawks.  In case you missed it, Carson Palmer is on fire, might be a Rodgers/Palmer duel in the NFC championship this year.  How is that for making overly grand hyperbolic statements after 3 weeks.  Cards roll 21-13

Vikings +7 over Broncos
not a reverse jinx here.  I still think the broncos win this game, but nothing other than the defense, makes me anywhere remotely comfortable with giving up 7 points. That being said, Bridgewater has looked like crapola.  AP leads the league in rushing again, but Denver's D is ranked #1 in the league and only giving up like 80 yards rushing per game, and no points.  Broncos have given up 49 points so far this year, and 14 of those are off of pick 6's from manning, so in total the defense has actually only given up 35 points in 3 games.  I think that's ok.  All that crap being said, the offense is horrible (ranked 30th in the league, right behind Minnesota).  It's good enough to win at Mile High, but won't cover.  Broncos 21-17

Saints (off) over Cowboys
I'm assuming that Drew Brees plays.  I'm assuming that Tony Romo does not.  Even so, I like the Verizon commercial guy better than weeden.  Saints are too good to go 0-4, so i'll take them here in the upset.  21-17

Lions +10 over Seahawks
Nothing about the Seahawks offense makes me think they'll beat anyone by double digits.  Lions aren't as bad as they've shown.  This will be another tough game for the Lions, brutal schedule to start the season.  Lions probably need to call plays the defense doesn't know...because knowing is half the battle.   I see a lot of fieldgoals in this game, and Golden Tate hates the seahawks now, and russel wilson who was always sleeping with Tate's wife.  Fucking Dangerusswilson.  What kind of a douche has that as his twitter name anyway.  why not just Russell_Wilson_NFL.  or seabiscuit or something.  Anyway, hawks win but don't cover 21-17

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"Idiots with nothing better to do"

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