Friday, September 25, 2015

Pick(s)

Does Bruce still have to shave?  Or is their medicine for that.  I saw a transy on the train this morning.  The whole thing confuses the shit out of me.  Dude was dress like a girl and had tits? but facial hair. 

Unto the picks.

Falcons -1.5 over COWBOYS
I really am not sure about the Cowboys.  They beat the Giants and they beat the Eagles.  Two teams that beat themselves pretty much.  Jerry Jones called Weeden the most gifted passer in the league.  I mean Jesus.  He's definitely pro Trump right?  Cowboys really need to find that running game to sustain drives without Romo.  Falcons on the other hand are sporting a mean defense and a robot in Julio Jones.    Your 3-0 Falcons everyone. 

Colts -3 over TITANS
Was getting older the right call during the off-season?  Gore and Andre Johnson have so far been mistakes.  Pagano has to defend his comments every week and apparently the owner hates his guts.  Troubling.  I think they get off the schneid here though.  They are better than Tenneessee.  Plain and period.  Also were 0-2 last year for what it's worth.  Mariotta has been impressive even after getting molested last year by Pettine and his Browns.  He will be around awhile.

Raiders +3.5 over BROWNS
Either the Raiders played possum in Game one or they will be that hot/cold team.  So why pick them to win if this should be their cold week?  Because Josh McNown sucks donkey meat that's why.  Stop denying Cleveland the Johnny Football era Pettine.  Stick to defense loser.

Cincy +2.5 over RAVENS
Home cooking for Baltimore but home cooking doesn't suit up and play defense.  This Ravens team is flawed.  Before Suggs went down.  No weapons on offense.  No corners.  Undisciplined safeties.  This might be the first deep scar on John Harbaugh's record.  Might be a long season for Baltimore and their fans.  Is there a week that goes by which doesn't include A.J. Green on the injury report?  Fucking guy pays rent on that injury report.

Jags +14.5 over PATS
Pats win calm down H.  Just think the Jags are ok enough to cover.  They have played good football thus far.  This would be one of the easy suicide picks if you wish.

CAROLINA -3 over Saints
The Saints are a mess.  Blow it up.  Too bad the Benson's are too busy fighting over money and not paying attention to the job Mickey Loomis is doing.  He's had a rough three years.  I'm still scratching my head over the Graham trade.  Newton is playing on another level right now.  He is basically a one man band. 

JETS -2.5 over Philly
Can't pick Philly until I see Bradtard throw an accurate pass and a Philly RB make a positive gain.  I mean it's just been non-competitive.  Either it's taking a little longer to work or players are just executing poorly.  Not sure but the Jets are certainly not the defense I would want to figure it out against.

Tampa +6.5 over TEXANS
The Bucs will hang around here.  Too big of a spread for a team with a wet noodle at QB.  Watt is going to have to play QB pretty soon.  They need Arian Foster.

MINNY -1 over San Diego
1pm "East Coast" start rule.  Not sure why teams don't stick around instead of flying back and then back again.  East coast teams do that sometimes.  Never hear of west coast teams doing it.  Release Teddy Bridgewater from that straight jacket Norv, jesus.  Kid gloves huh?

Pit -1 over ST. LOUIS
I just love the Steelers this year.  Like I said in the preview.  Riding them all year.  Bell is back too.  I love that they figured out the two point system already.  Always go for two.  Especially if you can practice it.  Not only for times when you have to convert the extra two but when you are 3rd and 2 and need to convert a big third down those plays will just expand and make you a better football team.  Fuck kickers.  They are pussies.

ARIZONA -6 over San Fran
Can someone get Jim Tomsula some anti-perspiant and fucking gym towel?  Jesus he needs to rock the John Thompson towel over the shoulder.  He sort of looks like Ron Jeremey.  Meanwhile if Arians rocked the kangol on the sidelines I would love him forever.  That guy is nuts. 

Buffalo +2.5 over MIAMI
Not sure if Lamar Miller is playing.  Even if he does the Bills run D is stout.  Rex once again had to eat a bowl of his own crow this past week.  I guess he will never learn.  Let's see how Tyrod Taylor plays on the road.  You can bet Jarvis Landry will on the receiving end of some funny business by Buffalo's secondary.

SEATTLE -14.5 over Bears
This line seriously cannot be high enough.  I would consider laying three TD's including two pointers.  Especially with Kam back in the mix.  Here is the suicide lock of the week.  If I'm the Bears I give the ball to Forte 50 times at least.  And for fucks sake does Bevell know they traded for Jimmy Graham in the off-season?  Maybe the GM should let him know.

DETROIT +3 over Denver
The Lions schedule is brutal.  This is a must win game for them and I think they respond at home.  They have to run the ball to keep those pass rushers honest.  Stafford has been getting bludgeoned.  Ware and Miller will have a feast if they can guess passing downs.

GREEN BAY -7 over Chiefs
Night games at Lambeau.  Hard to pick against the Packers even when they stink.  They don't stink.  I expect Randall Cobb to be very busy.






Thursday, September 24, 2015

Week 3 Picks

Not to toot my own horn but somebody last week said "the only way the Broncos win is if they get a defensive TD and a few key turnovers." Well Toot-toot, 5 turnovers including 2 in the redzone, and the back breaker that was the fumble returned for a TD. That's about all that went right last week, and I still missed on that pick.  9 Wins last week, so i'm roughly .500, i'll take it, especially since EP was 7-8 on only picking 15 games.  So i'm 1.5 games up.  Also, i realized I made you read the paragraphs to see who I picked, so i'll fix that this week.  I'm about efficiency.

before I get started: a couple of "unbelievables" from the first 2 weeks.  

unbelievable that the raiders not only covered against the ravens, but flat out beat them.  maybe it's because the ravens spent the week hanging out with all the chins in the bay area instead of going home.

unbelievable that the rams looked so awful. i mean awful awful.  Maybe the skins are that much better but I doubt it.  when you build your team around your defensive line (Rams), getting run on for 182 yards

unbelievable that the bucs beat the saints.  I think this might be sean payton's last year. I thought the bucs would hang in there because of pride, you know, but didn't expect them to go into the dome and actually win.  It also makes me laugh because all of the ESPN fantasy geeks were loading up their teams with Saints players, so that happened.

unbelievable that Andrew Luck is 0-2, and they look awful (two sexy analyst superbowl picks, ravens and colts, are a combined 0-4)

On to the picks:

Skins +4 vs G-MEN
So i was completely wrong about the redskins, or maybe the rams, but not at all wrong about the shitty giants.  Outside of OBJ, they have nothing...NOTHING.  Skins can run the ball, and will run it all the way down wall street (or whatever roads they have in New Jersey).  Thursday night road games suck though, and I like the home teams to win ugly games on Thursdays.  Giants probably win, but only by 1 point, 16-15

Falcons (off) vs Cowboys
No Romo, no dez, no witten, no fucking chance.  Matty Ice lucks out here.  The falcons defense has looked pretty decent in the first 2 weeks.  Playing again on turf, and mostly inside, they should have another good showing.  Without even looking at the line or anything, how much would you ever bet on Brandon Weeden?  If you were looking for your suicide pick this week, it's the falcons. Falcons win 22-11

Colts -3 vs Titans
At some point Andrew Luck has to win a game right?  He played against two of the better defenses in the first couple of weeks.  No need to hit the panic button for them, they play in a shitty division, they're only a game back, and thus can still win the division going 7-9.  Titans showed they can't cover the deep ballz, and TY and Luck like to go ballz deep. I also realize that i'm taking the road team so far in each of the first three games.  Colts win 29-18

Raiders +3.5 vs Browns
Shit I don't know, Raiders suck, Browns suck.  I'm going with the don't trust a west coast team playing the early game on the east coast rule (fuck ohio). Browns win a close one but don't cover, 19-17.

Ravens -2.5 vs Bengals
Flacco can't start 0-3, right?  Home opener for the ravens.  Bengals have had two easy games in the first two weeks, well maybe the Chargers weren't that easy.  I'm adding, never bet against a decent team that was embarrassed the week before, and is now having their home opener.  And I never want to bet ON andy dalton.  Ravens roll 26-19

Patriots -14.5 vs Jaguars
Jeez, that's a lot of points.  The jags are coming off a big win and are now the champions of Florida.  Still seems like a lot of points.  Tom Brady is playing ok, and the offense is doing well for the pats, but that's a lot of points to give.  Still not sold on their defense, but belichick has figured it out before, but 2tds is a lot to give up.  That's a lot of points though, and most NFL games are not double digit games.  This one i'm iffy on, no doubt the pats win the game, but do they have the venom in them to destroy the champions of Florida?  Pats win 30-11.

Panthers -3  vs Saints
Panthers D is playing well, but no Luke Keuchly again.  It will be the last season for the Sean Payton crew, if this game was in New Orleans, with a healthy Brees, i'd probably pick the saints, but it 'aint.  Panthers don't have much offense, or any really, it's a field position game for them, and get a couple of big plays and see what happens.  3 points is a lot for the panthers to cover, but i think they will.  22-17

Eagles +1 vs JETS
Why are the JETS only giving up one point here?  Short week I guess, maybe they'll be tired.  Ok you convinced me.  I don't think the Jets can count on forcing 5 turnovers every week, Decker might be hurt, i don't know.  Chip maybe figures it out, but I like the idea that the Jets on a short week against a fast break offense will be tired, so eagles 34-23

Holy jeez, are there always this many morning games?

Bucs +7 vs Texans
Texans aren't as bad as they've looked.  Bucs aren't as good as they looked last week.  JJ Watt and Brian Cushing against Jameis Winston?  But Ryan Mallett?  ok, so this game sucks.  Texans probably win, but don't deserve to be 7 point favorites against anyone.  Final score Texans win 18-17

Chargers +1 vs Vikings
Again, not a fan of a team heading east and playing the early game, but I don't think the vikings defense is very good.  Phyllis has played really well the first two weeks, Teddy Bridgewater, not so much.  The vikings went back to just give the ball to AD, and lets see what happens.  Good plan.  Chargers are just too much, win 18-16

Steelers (even) vs Rams
Rams are good-ish at home, but fuck them.  If you can't stop the running game of the skins, how are you going to stop Leveon Bell.  Who is now back and fresh.  I'll miss deangelo williams because i picked him up and stole some good points in the first two weeks.  Steelers offense has looked good in each of the first two weeks, and the rams defense is too inconsistent at this point.  Gotta take the Steelers 24-9

49ers +7 vs Cards
Overreaction line of the week.  The 9ers played on a really short week across country.  They'll be better rested this week, and a divisional opponent.  I like the cards to win the game, but giving 7 is just too much.  Nothing has made me think that the cards who seem to get weird touchdowns every week, are for real.  No running game..etc.  I like Carson Palmer, I like the cards in the game, but no way they can cover this number.  Cards win 23-20.

Bills +2.5 vs Dolphins
What about the first two weeks has made you think the *fish, should be favored here?  While the Bills got bombarded by the pats, there were parts of the game where they were competitive, and it just got away from them.  Bills are the better team, they win this one 26-20


Seahawks -15.5 vs Bears
Line is too big here.  I know that Jimmy Claussen will be starting here. Hawks first home game, Kam bam is back.  That's a huge line, and if the Seahawks backs weren't against the wall, i'd take the points, but just too many colliding forces.  Bears will try and run the ball with Forte and control the clock, making this a low scoring game, but I don't see how they score any points.  Seahawks 19-0

Lions +3 vs Broncos
Broncos defense is tough.  Their offense sucks right now, and I think it may continue to suck.  This all depends on if Stafford is going to play, which i'm assuming he is.  If Dan Orlovsky or whoever their backup is plays, then I get the right to change this pick and i'm taking the Broncos.  I'm picking it both wayz, how you like them apples.  Stafford plays, Lions win 22-19, home opener, Broncos can't keep getting lucky with turnovers at opportune times.  Megatron gets behind the defense a couple of times.  If Orlovsky plays, Broncos win 19-13, just not enough firepower for the lions.

Packers -7.5 vs Chiefs
Chiefs have a pretty good defense, extra rest time. But they still have Alex Smith and Andy Reid.  Tough matchup here for the chiefs, and Aaron Rodgers doesn't lose at home.  Packers here in a rout...34-12.


I took too many road teams this week, but whatever.








Friday, September 18, 2015

PICKS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I need some intro music.  Wouldn't that be cool, like you refresh the page and some jingle starts playing?  Like the Sunday night song or the Inside the NFL jingle.  Sort of like a singing greeting card.

As usual do with these picks as you see fit.  I'm using the 5Dimes.com betting line.

CAROLINA -3 over Texans
I fear Bill O'Brien does not know what short leash means.  I love this matchup because I want to see JJ Watt vs. Cam Newton.  Did anyone read that article on Watt from MMQB site?  Pretty good stuff as far as how they game plan, how they use Watt.  Basically he lines up wherever the fuck he wants.  Wherever he thinks a play can be made.  Whether that's attacking a weak o lineman, rushing the edge on a passing down, lining up over the nose on a obvious run down, etc.  Or standing up.  No Luke in this one but won't matter, Ryan Mallet's middle name is mistakes.

STEELERS -6 over Niners
I love the home teams home openers in the early weeks especially after a loss and especially after a few extra days of coach work.  I think the Vikes poor showing had more to do than the Niners Monday night win that no one in the country watched.

Tampa Bay +11 over SAINTS
Well I'm a hypocrite.  Let me rephrase, I love the home teams home openers when the spread isn't retarded.  I'm not completely ready, just yet, to shit on the Bucs.  Even though the one Bucs fan I know is (TEMWR87).

VIKES -2.5 over Detroit
Have to think the Vikings play better this week.  Especially Peterson.  He knocked the rust off.  The over on this game (43) is a lock.  That's the better play.

BEARS +2 over Arizona
I saw some good things from the Bears loss last week.  Forte is the focal point which is good because he is their best player.  Cutler was into it.  The defense was not THAT bad.  Or as bad as some people thought.  The whole "I thought the Bears should have hired me story" Arinas came out with this week was strange.  Could be a motivator in that locker room for the owner.

BUFFALO over New England
Even spread.  So Vegas is even giving the Bills a shot.  Rex had some early success vs. the Pats and Brady when he was with the Jets.  First two seasons they had the edge and knocked them out of the playoffs.  Maybe there is some of that magic with here early too.  That crowd is pretty good too.  And sure Belichick probably has a master plan to destroy Tyrod Taylor but he can't plan for when the play breaks down and T Mobile scampers for 30.  Plus Taylor has studied with or was part of game planning for Pats often while with Baltimore.  That knowledge is key.

BENGALS -3 over Chargers
I'll give the edge to the home team.  In years past the Chargers haven't been very good on the road especially for the early matches.

Titans -1 over BROWNS
I love the home teams home openers when the spread isn't retarded and when the home team is not the Browns.  Gonna need a manifesto soon.

GIANTS -2.5 over Falcons
Somehow they put that debacle behind them and play well in front of the fans.  But I am leery of a bad Eli pick early unsettling everyone and boos rain down.  That's a Jet move but certainly in play here because of last week.  Philly seemed off last week and got emotionally ran out of that game early.   Different feel this week.  Road game, short week, Julio is a stud but already banged up a bit.

St. Louis -3 over SKINS
That d-line going to be in the backfield all day.  It's a nasty defense with Dr. Bounty calling the shots this might get ugly in DC quick.

JAX +7 over Miami
Miami was disoriented on offense last week.  They may eke out a win here but I don't expect them to blow out the Jags who at the least feel like a team that will compete.   Maybe even fall on the cover dogs list this year.  Is the 12th man in Everbank Stadium the pool?

Baltimore -6 over OAKLAND
I suspect Oakland will play better but you know Baltimore will be hard up for that first win.  and emotionally charged without their leader.

PHILLY -5 over Dallas
It's clear Dallas is a different team without Murray moving the chains and keeping defenses honest.  I don't read into anything from Monday night on the Eagles side with Murray because they were down 20-3 before you knew it.  So let's give it a few games.  Philly's home opener after a loss seems like a safer bet than Dallas's first road game after a miracle.

GREEN BAY -3.5 over Seahawks
Uh oh.  0-2 for the NFC favorites.  2-0 for the other NFC favorites.  This Kam Chancellor holdout is taking the beginning of their season hostage.  Clearly they miss him.  Night game in Lambeau.  WAITING ALL DAY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

COLTS -7 over Jets
Rocking crowd, if Jets make a mistake early this will be over by dinner time on the West Coast.

Thursday, September 17, 2015

NFL Week 2 picks

I'm starting a new trend.  Every week on Thursday morning, i'm going to pick the games of the week in the NFL, and tell you who is going to win.  I'll keep track of my record, and at the end of the year, I will throw a party that you're all invited to, to celebrate how awesome of a season I had picking games.

Before I pick any games, I've got a beef.  Flat bill caps.  I know we've talked about this before, but if you're over the age of 18, flat bill cap look is awful.  I give a pass to athletes because they get a new hat every game/every day, so breaking in a new hat everyday would be inefficient.  But the guy who is 38 and wearing a flat bill cap with his 13 year old son, looks like a fool.  Look buddy, you're an adult, act like one.  This wasn't respectable when you were 13, so don't be that guy.

One other thing.  I thought of this while watching Matt Ryan monday night.  There are a lot of pretty good QBs right now who will probably never win a superbowl.  I can't remember in other eras, good QBs that didn't win Superbowls besides Marino.  I'm looking at Phyllis Rivers, Matt Ryan, Carson Palmer, Tony Romo and knowing that they'll never even play in the Superbowl, let alone win one.  While shit QBs like Eli, Flacco, Roethlisberger (he was crap when he won his 2), all have wins.  More so than ever before, I think over the last 10-15 years proves that having a solid defense and enough supporting pieces wins championships, which gives me hope for the Broncos, because after this year, they'll have "just a guy" as QB, and hopefully enough pieces around him.  Or maybe they'll get Matt Ryan.

On to the picks (home team in Bold) (spreads by Bovada)

Chiefs(-3) vs Broncos
I'm a big believer on taking the home team on Thursday night games.  Especially if the home team is a division rival, and have a strong home field advantage.  KC's defense is pretty stout, good pass rush, and better in the secondary now that Eric Berry is back.   Broncos defense is for real, will be one of the best in the league this year, and will carry them in certain games.  This is one where the only way the Broncos win is if they get a defensive TD and a few key turnovers.  Old Man Manning on a short week, on the road, after he got beat the hell up last week, and hasn't looked good in the new system yet...can't take the broncos...Chefs beat the Broncos 17-13 this week.

Patriots (-2.5) vs Bills
I like the pats here.  I think the worst thing that happened to Buffalo and Rex Ryan was that they destroyed an average Colts team last week.  Now they believe they are better than they really are.  Buffalo is a tough place to play, and their defense is for real.  The pats defense is awful, but the offense is going to score enough points most games to win.  H, get used to watching shootouts this year.  Shady McCoy might be done, and I like Tyrod Taylor, but the Bills don't have enough firepower.  maybe if this was week 12, and we had more of a sample size from Tyrod, but I gotta lay the points and take the Pats 31-24.

Cardinals (-2.5) vs Bears
Carson Palmer just wins with Bruce Arians.  I thought the cards were just smoke and mirrors 2 years ago. I thought they were overrated last year.  They're not exciting, they're not great in any one area, but they are solid across the board.  That being said, i'm picking the bears and Cutler in this one.  I like John Fox, he's good until he wears out his welcome.  I was encouraged that the Bears stayed in the game with Green Bay all the way to the end.  I don't like the cards on the road, outside, in the wind and muck of Chicago.  Taking the Bears for the straight up win  24-21.

Bengals (-3.5) vs Chargers
I never take a west coast team, in an early game, on the east coast.  The time difference screws them up.  Bengals destroyed the Raiders last week, and I look for more of the same this week.  Maybe destroy is a tough word.  Bengals have a good running attack, Tyler Eifert looks fully healthy and is a solid weapon for Dalton.  I fucking hate red heads, but since this isn't the playoffs, I think Dalton does enough to win.  Phil Rivers showed that he's still a force to be reckoned with.  But if Detroit had just covered Keenan Allen, maybe one time, they win that game.  San Diego can't go on the road and beat a playoff team, not right now.  Bengals win 28-21

Titans (-1) vs Browns
I guess all it takes is one road win where your rookie QB looks like Dan Marino to start being the favorites on the road.  Granted they're playing the Browns, but i'm not sold on the Titans after one game.  On paper, the Browns are the better team.  Not sure if McCown is going to play, he probably shouldn't anyway.  Manziel makes too many mistakes, and this game is just a flaming pile of garbage.  I like Mariota, I liked him better than Winston before the draft, I still like him better, but one game doesn't put you in the HOF.  Lets pump the brakes here a little.  Cleveland has a better defense than Tampa, and should look to confuse the Flyin Hawaiian.  I'm taking Cleveland here, just because I don't think the Titans are there yet, but shit, this one is a toss-up.  Cleveland wins 17-14

Vikings (-3) vs Lions
I know the vikings opened against a decent defense on the road.  But holy shit they looked like crap.  There was no blocking for AP, Teddy looked uncomfortable the entire time, and I'm sick of Norv Turner already.  I know the Lions aren't a great road team, and hardly ever win outside, and megatron might be done.  But if you're giving me 3 points here i'm taking them.  Blair Walsh kicks like a girl, and they have no confidence in him, besides his name is Blair...what a pussy.  I think this comes down to a FG difference, but i'm going the other way and taking the Lions 27-24. (although 24 seems unlikely unless they score 3 TDS and go for 2 each time, because of Blair)

Saints (-10) vs Bucs
I know that winston looked bad.  I know that the saints are a much better team at home.  But I don't give anybody 10 points in week 2 unless the team giving the points maybe was a superbowl contender.  Saints have no weapons outside of Brandin Cooks.  This offense sucks, the defense can't stop anybody. I can't believe that Rob Ryan is still on the sideline for New Orleans, but I'm not sure it's his fault, they just don't have anything on that side of the ball. Bucs looked bad, got blown out at home by a rookie QB.  They are better than that, but I'm not sure how much better.  Lovie might not last the whole season if things continue like that.  Running game really never got going, and they didn't protect Jameis very well.  This week, they get some of that rolling, and Dirk Koetter starts to figure out how to not suck. I think NO wins the game but they don't cover.  Saints win 28-21.

Giants (-2) vs Falcons
Not sure how the g-men are favored here.  They shit the bed against the Cowboys.  They were actually dominated by the boys in that game so the fact that they should have won was amazing.  Falcons on the other hand, look like they really like Dan Quinn.  Kyle Shanahan has that offense humming along, and as long as Julio Jones stays healthy, this should be a competitive team.  I don't buy into the falcons on the road outside nonsense here.  Matt Ryan played at BC, he can handle the elements, plus it's fall in New Jersey, not winter in Buffalo.  Giants running game is atrocious, Eli will be Eli, and in the end the Falcons win this game 24-17.

Steelers (-6) vs 49ers
This is a matchup of two teams that probably aren't as good as the stats from last week told you.  Steelers played against an awful defense, and still couldn't figure out how to win.  9ers played against a horrible offense, so holding them to 3 points wasn't much of an accomplishment. I will say that the 9ers are imminently more fun to watch if you read the running diary of the Aussie reporter who is live blogging every game.  I think Australians are just funny anyway, but this guy describing american football is just hilarious.  I play the West Coast teams playing the early game on the east coast card here again.  Plus the 9ers played the really late game monday night, so somewhat of a quick turnaround for them.  I'll take the Steelers for the win here 28-13.

Rams (-3.5) vs Redskins
Spiff's skins actually looked pretty good last week.  If they had a real QB, they might have a shot at winning 7 games, but Kirk Cousins is a joke.  This Rams defense is for real, they will molest Kirk Cousins and make him look like he just ate an onion sandwich.  Skins o-line has probably the toughest first 2 weeks in the league between the Dolphins and now the Rams.  I think Nick Foles is better than people give him credit.  Rams should have Tre Mason and Todd Gurley this week.  I like the Rams to win the NFC west this year...I said it.  I think they win this game going away... Rams win 31-13.

Man, there are a lot of games you have to pick

Panthers (-3) vs Texans
These are two good defensive teams.  Although the texans are pretty weak in the secondary.  I enjoyed hard knocks and it made me hate JJ Watt even more than I already did.  Panthers might not have Kuechly this week which makes them not as tough defensively.  Texans are starting Ryan Mallett, who should be decent as long as he wakes up in time for the game.  Cam Newton doesn't have anyone, and I mean anyone, to throw the ball to.  I like the Texans here, backup QB and all.  Final score 21-20 Texans on a JJ Watt something play. (he might kick the game winning extra point, i don't know)

Ravens (-6) vs Raiders
Raiders are bad, even both starting safeties are now out for a long period of time.  Truth is that the safeties weren't that great (yes even charles woodson has lost a lot of steps), so the WAR or whatever statistic you have for replacement players isn't that big of a gap.  Ravens don't have any weapons on offense, none, not one.  Zero. I mean, not any.  Suggs is out because he's a big vagina with weak achilles.  Derek (not David) Carr might not play because of something wrong with his hand, Amari Cooper probably has a concussion from Pacman's bullshit.  (by the way, i get it's the heat of the moment and all that, but if somebody like Richie Incognito had done that, dude would be out of the league, why does Pacman get a pass?, and how do the Raiders players not do some crazy vigilante justice shit?  In my day, we'd have taken care of pacman a few plays later, backup TE would have cheap shotted him and sent him to the hospital, but I digress).  Ravens win 20-3

Dolphins (-6.5) vs Jags
How is this a "late game" on Sunday?  Did CBS say, boy we really want the "battle of florida" to be our marquee afternoon game in week 2?  Maybe CBS doesn't have the doubleheader this week, i don't know, i'm not columbo.  I don't know anything about the Jaguars, except that they have Blake Bortles, and he's the king of preseason.  Dolphins win 38-12.

Eagles (-5.5) vs Cowboys
I don't care that the cowboys don't have Dez.  I don't care that their running game is garbage right now.  I don't care that they should have lost to the Giants.  The eagles were a joke against a not great team last week.  How are they a) favored & b) favored by 5.5?  Bradtard didn't look great, and really the only reason the game was remotely close was that the falcons got tired.  Cowboys win 31-24

Packers (-3.5) vs Seahawks
Legion of boom isn't the same without the actual BOOM.  Seahawks miss Kam Chancellor, but that entire defense has lost it's swagger.  When was the last time the seahawks scored 31 and lost?  When was the last time they gave up 34?    Packers at home, sunday night, with a score to settle, give me the pack big, 27-13.  I think after this game if seattle doesn't pay Kam, they may not make the playoffs.

Colts (-7) vs Jets
All those analysts that were picking the colts as the hot team to win the AFC, wonder where they are right now. Colts looked awful.  They did a  better job of stopping the run, but Frank Gore looks old, Andre Johnson looks old, TY Hilton got hurt, their offensive line had all kinds of trouble.  I think the Colts get back on track this week at home, but probably don't cover.  Jets defense looks strong, they're going to blitz and blitz some more.  They have a great secondary, although not sure that cromartie will play this week.  I like the addition of Brandon Marshall for the Jets.  Decker is not good enough to be the #1 receiver, but with marshall that sets up a really good duo, and Decker becomes a great #2 (like poo).  I think the JETS keep it close and cover, but eventually fall to the Colts.  Final score 24-20



Friday, September 04, 2015

Footyball Preview 2015 - El Padrino

"When you jump and then land or begin to run, you need both the quadriceps muscle in front of your knee and your hamstring muscles in the back of your knee to fire at exactly the same time," said Dr. Robert Klapper, the chief of orthopedic surgery at the Cedars-Sinai Medical Group in Los Angeles. "If the hamstring is a fraction of a second off in firing, as you fire the quadriceps muscle, you are literally moving the tibia forward on the femur and it snaps the ligament." - Torn ACL

Welcome to preview. As always these thoughts are that of my own and should not be taken to a betting window or neighborhood bookie even though they are probably 85.8% accurate.

NFC EAST
I mean my god how fucked up are the Redskins. My thoughts on RGIII are, and they never changed, he has to learn to throw the ball from the pocket. Not the moving pocket, not on the run, not on a bootleg but in the pocket created by the line. And his second read decisions are trash. More than half of his picks, career picks, are thrown in the direction of his second progression receiver. I think he could be great. And not with the right coaching staff his arm talent is bonkers. Mentally, not sure he is there and playing for the Skins has just made that worse. Cowboys had a quiet off-season for the Cowboys no? See what happens when you win. Now keep it up. Giants offense is supposed to be great this year. I think that's the only thing you can point to though. Question marks everywhere else. Chip Kelly had a hell of an offseason didn't he? From being called racist multiple times to trading and signing marquee names all the while breaking in a talented but oft injured blue chipper qb to run his complicated fast system.

Eagles (10-6) - 3 seasons 30 wins. Will Bradford hold up? How many times can you tear a knee to shreds? Demarco Murray signing was huge. He's bigger than Shady and just as fast. The depth on this team at the skill position is better this year.

Cowboys (9-7) - Joseph Randle? Cmon son. Running backs grow on trees in this league. But the drop off from what Murray gave them to what Randle and DMC is going to give them is a big gap. Romo needs the running game to produce. I see a slip in production and the Scandrick injury was big.

Giants (7-9) - So long Tom Coughlin. It's been real. You are a hall of famer in my book. And I fucking love you. You hear me? I FUCKING LOVE YOU DAD. BWAHHHAHHHA please don't go. *HEAVY SOBBING*

Teams will prepare for Beckham, Cruz will not be Cruz until Week 8, Randle sucks, the offensive line is still not there, the defense continues to have an alarming number of injuries and Spagnuolo doesn't have Strahan, Pierre Paul and Justin Tuck. Jerry Reese has an uneven record drafting and signing players. I think he's gone too.

Skins (3-13) - This team will be brutal. What they need to do is run Alfie Mo 400 times, blitz a lot and play the field position game. Something tells me that is not Jay Gruden's style.

NFC North
DA NORRIS DIVISION. Fucking Berman. Everyone and their crack mama's are calling this for the Packers. NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND. Corso that bitch. When Corso strokes out and dies I will be mucho sad. Anyway the Vikings are going to feature a power running game, a couple of burners on the outside and two underneath threats for 2nd year pro Teddy Bridgewater. If I said I like the Vikings over team total wins of 8 (vegas line) more than I like my own set of nuts it would be a major understatement and I LOVE MY NUTS. Mike Zimmer can flat out coach a defense. They will be flying around. Packers have always had a hard time containing AP as do many other teams, including the Bears and Lions. Oh yeah the Lions. 11-5 last year yes? What are they dog shit? Because Suh left they regress you think? MMMMM. I don't know. Only the Bears are the clear cut "I know what that record will be" team.

Vikings (11-5) - Remember when Jordan took some time off and came back to win championships? Peterson is of that mold. Purple is the new black.

Lions (10-6)
- This offense is still loaded. Good line, borderline great QB, GOAT WR, good secondary wr's, plenty of tight ends, good backs. Defense will be fine, just not as stingy. I see no reason to grade this team lower than last years 11-5 team. Just throwing in a bad loss for mathematical purposes.

Packers (8-8) - This is my shocking entry. Like I said at the top everyone is picking the Packers even after Rodgers lost his best weapon. McCarthy not calling plays, pretty much delegating them to a guy who will be overridden by Rodgers anyway. The defense is eh. The Vikings are better. The Bears will not be gimmes and the Lions are there as well. I'm also calling a Rodgers injury. Just a hunch.

Bears (4-12)
- John Fox means nothing to me. Without Peyton and the weapons there that first year in Denver would have not been successful. He is fine tuning this roster along with their new GM.

NFC South
I never know what to make of the Panthers. They are either 8-8 or 12-4. It seems that way anyway. The Saints will never go back to those high powered years. I actually think Brees is on the decline. As I write this they are losing their top defensive player at least for 6 weeks (Keenan Lewis). Perfect storm for Dan Quinn in Atlanta. No expectations. A 4-12 year while not optimal will not get you fired unless insubordination is rampant. I think with the pieces he is slowly putting together they will be solid real soon. What to make of Winston. He's super talented. Not quite as dumb as people may think. Actually has a real good concept of the game. Interesting division. Here's how I see it.

Falcons (9-7) - Should be pretty good on offense. Better than anyone else in the division. I mean the Falcons will probably score more points in the first quarters of weeks 1-6 then the Panthers will score all year. Under a new defensive regime, catch a few breaks, this team should be in the hunt.

Bucs (7-9) - Growing pains but flashes of greatness from Jameis. I think he has it all. Pushing the off the field stuff aside including the sexual assault stuff I mean he's so young. I was an asshole when I was young too. Without all the distractions. Two really good WR's. A nice back, few good defensive pieces. Good steady coach. Weak division.

Saints (6-10) - Just not seeing it. Brees in decline. No Graham. Still no defense. When are they going to address that defense? Bring bounties back or something. There is no talent. Mickey Loomis is overrated. They also have a dark cloud coming from ownership hanging over the franchise. Shit is ugly.

Panthers (4-12)
- Turn out the lights Ron Rivera. Cleary regressed from two years ago they went 7-8-1 last year and sneaked into the playoffs. They can't score. For years now they do not score. They never draft anyone sure fire or sign anyone that can change definetly that. I will never understand this. Never.

NFC WEST
So long San Fran. Nice knowing you. Seahawks all day nothing to see here.

Seahawks (12-4) - Right there. With or without Kam Chancellor. Team is still intact and they added a weapon at tight end. Secondary will be fine.

Rams (9-7) - Is this Fisher's first winning season here? I think so. Well if I'm right. Foles gives them some stability on offense and their defense is still very good.

Arizona (6-10) - Lost Bowles who really coordinated a great defense last year. Continuity in this league is important. Palmer is back, for now that will help but no running game. Leaky offensive line and they have a brutal schedule. Brutal. Three cupcakes in a row then lights out after that.

Niners (2-14) - If you can have a worse off-season then the Niners you might be the Redskins. I mean jesus Christ. Police blotter, headlines, acrimonious split from success, weird promotions, terrible stadium planning, bad landscapers, blood-letting of roster and the Super Bowl site jinx. Forget it.

Division Winners
Vikings (BYE), Seahawks (Bye), Eagles, Falcons
Wild Card winners
Lions, Cowboys
Wild Card Weekend
Eagles over Cowboys
Lions over Falcons
Divisional Weekend
Eagles over Vikings
Seahakws over Lions
Championship Weekend
Seahakws over Eagles

Seahawks king of the NFC again. Three straight Super Bowl appearances.

AFC East
I mean Pats all day no? It's amazing the consistency they have been able to produce. Jets enter a new era but they are the Jets. They do not have a quarterback. The Dolphins are everyones other sleeper pick but is that Joe Philbin a winner? I don't know, I kind of just look at him and think "ordinary". He looks like a shitty doctor. Rex! I'm excited for the Tyrod Taylor era. I hope they start him.

Pats (12-4) - Garapolo is probably all like, yo that was close. Thank god. Pussy.

Bills (9-7) - Most exciting team no one will see.

Fins (6-10) - Fire Dr. Philbin already.

Jets (4-12) - Welcome to NY MR. Bowles.

AFC North
Another slobberknocker year for this division. A division that the Bengals have sort of dominated. Could it be they just wear out by the time January comes? No. This isn't a grind like baseball. They just never put together 4 quarters in any of those 1st round losses.  I think they crumble.  For no reason.  Some if it is on Andy but some of it is on the defense too. Rothlisberger is poised for a big time year. I think he leads the league in yards this year. Over 5K. The Ravens have a more balanced team this year. They are always hanging around. Poor Cle. If they were in the NFC south they'd have a shot.

Steelers (13-3) - Ben's best year. And once Bell returns they become borderline unstoppable on offense. Even with the poor play on defense and rash of injuries. Nothing is telling me this is a 13 win team but that's why I like the pick.

Ravens (10-6) - Ravens will be right there. Well coached. Consistency at QB.

Browns (5-11) - They won't win many contests but will be cover dogs.

Bengals (4-12) - Fuck Keef. Someone has to be 4-12. Might as well be them. Maybe they will get rid of Lewis now.

AFC South
I think the Colts have a real shot this year. They got slapped around pretty good in the deflategate game and still taste the blood. They need a defensive star to emerge. Hard Knocks went a little overboard with JJ but can you blame them? He's a super duper star. The Titans will be giving teams problems this year.

Colts (14-2) - Super bowl or bust. Will Pagano finally deliver a defense that can make stops when they have to?

Texans (9-7) - I watched Hard Knocks. Bill O B is hilarious. Just line up Watt anywhere and he'll dominate.

Titans (9-7) - Mariota wins ROY. Dr. Bounty has some fun with a top ten defense.

Jags (3-13) - In the middle of a major rebuild with two improving teams and one great one in their division. 0-6.

AFC WEST
On the heels of that ginormous contract it kind of feels like San Diego's year no? It does to me. Peyton stopped eating chicken parm so he will be spry in December/January. No worries. Oakland is improving to me and fast. I like Del Rio. Lasted a long time in that northern Florida shit hole. Maclin is just what the Dr. ordered in KC.

Chargers (12-4) - Gonna be one of those years where Rivers throws it on everyone and does that stupid trash talking thing he does.

Chiefs (10-6) - Returned all key spots. Have a real WR. They never turn the ball over.

Broncos (8-8) - It's over.

Raiders (6-10) - Growing pains but signs of life in the bay area. They will be better than the Niners at least.

Division winners
Pats, Steelers (BYE), Colts (BYE), Chargers
Wild Card Winners
Ravens, Chiefs
Wild Card weekend
Ravens over Pats, Chargers over Chiefs
Divisional Weekend
Steelers over Ravens, Colts over Chargers
Championship Weekend
Colts over Steelers

AFC Champ Colts

Luck vs. Wilson. Ugh so many stories that week.

Hawks return to glory. 36-24

Super Bowl champ Seahawks. But that's it. The entire defense holds out the next year, Carroll quits due to a sexual assault charge and the 12th man dies.

have fun boys





Top Of The Page Material:

"Idiots with nothing better to do"





"Most Boston sports fans are just douchebags. Because most people from New England are douchebags." - tem





"Obama got elected because of the Rooney rule" - Jug





"you should never let debt stop you from pro-creating anyway" - El Padrino





"If you agree with EP, change your opinion." - H





"i'm dumb and sensitive. basically i'm a woman" - L Padrino





"I'm so horny this morning. If there wasn't this sex offender list going around id grope bitches on the train this morning" - L Padrino