Thursday, December 03, 2015

week 13 picks

The season is starting to wind down.  It's the final stretch, the countdown to the playoffs...all that jazz.

MLB hot stove is heating up, players nobody cares about are being signed or traded.  what a great time to be alive.

I know nobody cares, but Grayson Allen is 100% classic Duke guy.  White guy, douche, better than most everybody else, has no career after college.  Great guy to root against.

Steph Curry and the warriors, like whoa.  I usually don't pay attention to basketball until after the NFL season has wrapped, but jeez.  20-0, that's right, 20 and zero.  I'm probably jinxing them right here though, so there's that...sorry tem.  I would say the warriors have a legit shot of breaking the 72 win barrier.  If they haven't lost when Kerr comes back, and then they lose, does Kerr get fired? discuss...coffee talk.

on to the picks.  I had an OK week, while EP was in the shitter.  I needed some shitter weeks from him again, glad to see the old EP back.  I went 8-8 bringing my totals to 83-72-4 (.535) and Tony went 4-9 to drop to 77-65-4 (.542), so now it's a race down the stretch.  I'll have to take this serious from now on.

Packers -3 vs Lions
Lions have been playing better, the packers have been playing worse.  This is probably a dumb choice, but I also think the Lions get too excited about beating a shitty Eagles team and think now they can just show up.  The packers know they basically have to win out, just to get a home playoff game.  Playoffs start today for the pack, and rodgers comes through, double checking his way to 3 TDs.  Pack win 35-24.

Giants +1 vs Jets
I think the Jets are the better team, but the Giants are tough at home.  Oh wait, you tell me they're both at home?  If Revis were playing, i'd take the Jets here, but since he's not (probably avoiding getting lit up by OBJ), the giants are the play.  Playoffs start today for the Giants, if they can't win this game, they'll be one back (and 2 with the tie breaker) with 4 to play...tough.  I'll put my money on Coughlin and Eli.  24-20.

Rams +7 vs Cardinals
No CJ2K hurts the cardinals.  The rams are slightly better at home.  I think the cards can win this game, but the line is too big, if they can't cover 7 points against Blaine Gabbert, they can't cover 7 points against Todd Gurley.  Playoffs start today for the Rams, if they lose, they are out. And they will, Cards win but miss the cover 24-20.

Bucs -1 vs Falcons
Falcons are going in the wrong direction, Matt Ryan looks confused lately.  Everytime I pick the bucs to win, they lose, sorry Tem.  Playoffs start today for both of these teams, if the bucs win, they're right in the wildcard hunt, if the falcons lose, they've got no shot at the playoffs.  I like Jameis here, which is scary, 31-24.

Vikings pick'em vs Seahawks
Seahawks have been garbage on the road this year.  Their secondary is lost.  They really miss Dan Quinn.  No Jimmy Graham, back to trying to run the ball and grind it out.  It's going to be cold, and that means ADP will have a field day.  Seahawks run defense is stout, but ADP will dominate, this is where the playoffs start for both teams, and a loss for the 'hawks is crushing, but ADP owns December.  Vikings in a squeaker 21-20.

Bills -3 vs Texans
Playoffs start here for the bills.  The Texans don't need this win nearly as much, since they're in a fight for their division and still have a game left against the Colts.  Bills basically need to win out to get a wild card.  Rex should have the team fired up, and it will be cold.  I don't like warm weather or indoor teams, on the road in the cold in December, unless they're a really good team, and the Texans are not it.  I'll take the bills here, in grind it out fashion 17-13.

Dolphins -4 vs Ravens
Short week, quick turnaround for the Ravens.  The playoffs start here for both teams, if you lose (oh who am I kidding neither team has a shot) then you're out, win and there is still a glimmer of hope.  Dolphins get a bump from changing OCs again.  Ravens still don't have a QB.  Was anyone surprised that Schaub threw a pick 6 last week, nope, me neither.  I think the fish run the ball and control the clock.  Tannehill makes enough plays and they win 20-14.

Bengals -10.5 vs Browns
Austin Davis?  c'mon man.  The playoffs start for the Bengals now, except they really don't, if they lose, they'll still make the playoffs, but they aren't going to lose this game.  They'll need to win out to get the 2 seed, including a big game against the Broncos in a couple of weeks.  The road gets tough for them starting now, and this is usually where bad Andy starts showing up.   Bengals 38-10

Jaguars +2.5 vs Titans
You know the titans haven't won a home game yet this year.  This should be a shootout, and the playoffs start now for the Jags.  Any hope of getting in and they have to win out, so they need to beat the bad teams when they have them on their schedule.  9-7 will win their division, so go win some games.  Jags win in a shocker 38-35.

Bears -8 vs 49ers
Bears still have a shot at the playoffs, but they'll probably have to win out for the most part.  They might could lose one more game and still get in, but it'll be tough.  10-6 guarantees them a spot.  I like how Foxy has this team playing right now, and I think they stomp this craptastic 49ers team.  '9ers are awful on the road.  Bears and Cutler roll 31-17.

Broncos -4 vs Chargers
Chargers tried the "we're going to fire someone to get the team excited" tactic this week, except they fired their special teams coordinator.  Why, are they not running enough touchbacks back for TDs?  Are they giving up too many special teams touchdowns.  I have no idea.  Broncos will run the ball and control the clock.  the Bears game wasn't as close as the score, the NE game was probably a fluke, but playoffs start now for the broncos.  The chiefs are right behind them, they've got a legit shot at the #1 if not the #2 seed in the playoffs, so get on your horse and ride the brock train, for at least one more week.    Broncos 28-17.

Chiefs -2.5 vs Raiders
I really like the raiders, and this is really a playoff game for them.  If they lose this, they can kiss the postseason good bye.  I think they're ahead of schedule though and getting to 8-8 would be huge for them going into next year.  The chiefs, i hate.  There isn't one player on that team that I like, not one.  I wouldn't fuck them with Meiz's dick.  But you know what, somehow Andy Reid has them figuring this out enough.  They've won 5 in a row which is the longest streak in the NFL (if you don't count the panthers), and seem to be playing really well.  I'll take the chiefs on the road in the Black Hole 31-28.

Saints +7.5 vs Panthers
There is something to be said about the pride of Drew Brees and the saints here.  Panthers are coming off an ass kicking on national TV, have extra time to prepare...etc, but I think the Panthers are one of those teams that needs people to not believe in them.  I think the Saints pull a shocker here, and win the game, breaking the streak, and the champagne pops.  Playoffs start this week for the Saints, and drew brees comes through, 24-20.

Pats -11 vs Eagles
This is more about how awful the eagles are than how good the pats are.  Yeah, i know, Tom Brady is pissed, he's angry, whatever.  They don't have any weapons on offense...boo hoo.  Guess what, the Eagles have given up 45 points in back to back weeks, and neither QB was anywhere near as good as Tom Baby.  The playoffs start today for the Eagles, if they don't win (which they won't) then they don't have a shot of catching the red hot Redskins for the division lead.  So the pats will get even this week 45-17

Steelers (off) vs Colts
Playoffs start today for both teams, but really the steelers.  Because the colts have a shit for brains division.  I think Ben will play.  Which makes this game infinitely more watchable.  Although, I think the steelers win this game in a blowout.  38-17, and the matt hasselback legend dies.

Redskins -4.5 vs Cowboys
The skins are really good at home.  I mean there is no two ways around that.  Kirk Cousins plays like he's Dan Marino when they're home, but like Ryan Leaf on the road.  Cowboys are keeping their playoff options open by not putting Romo on IR.  Well if you're going to win the division, then guess what the playoffs start today, basically the cowboys have to win out, and they won't they are like 0-7 without Romo this year, so why would this be any different.  Skins in a rout 31-10.

EL PAD PICKS

Real quick, mad busy yo.


NYG +2 over NYJ
Az - 4.5 over Rams
Tampa over Falcons
Seattle +1 over VIKES
Texans -3 over BILLS
MIA -3.5 over Bal
CLE +10.5 over Bengals
TEN -2.5 over Jax
SF +8.5 over Bears
Den -3.5 over SD
OAK -2.5 over Cheifs
Car -7 over SAINTS
NE -10.5 over Philly
Colts +7.5 over PIT
WASH -4 over Boys






132 comments:

Keef said...

Moral of the story is that the playoffs start now apparently

Blue said...

yes

Blue said...

i didn't even include that the playoffs start this weekend for Collitch

MSU vs Iowa (playoff game)
Clemson vs UNC (playoff game)
Alabama vs Florida (playoff game, but not really for Florida, basically Ohio State gets in if Bama loses)

El Padrino said...

Ohio state won't get in. Even if bama loses. Cant get into playoff without a conf championship

Can you?

Blue said...

yep, you can

what are they going to put Stanford in? Florida?

no way

if you only have 3 strong conference champions and two that are shit, then you have to put in a second team from a power 5 conference

Blue said...

the point is moo anyway, because Alabama isn't going to lose to FU

Keef said...

Cant get into playoff without a conf championship

Can you?



It's never happened before.

Blue said...

this is true

Blue said...

i'd like it to blow up like that and clemson and bama not get in, so they have to move to an 8 team playoff

which it kind of is right now, right, with 3 games this weekend determining if you get into the playoff

Blue said...

it's like a 7 team playoff with Oklahoma having a bye

Meiz said...

Question.


When do the playoffs start?

Keef said...

He kept saying today, but there's only 1 game today.

El Padrino said...

Pack tonight

ToddPacker said...

"the point is moo anyway, because Alabama isn't going to lose to FU"

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

ToddPacker said...

I'm heading to Atlanta tomorrow for the beating on Saturday

ToddPacker said...

"what are they going to put Stanford in? Florida"

no chance for Florida, Stanford could get in over tOSU if the beat USC big, but chances are urb gets in if Florida wins

ToddPacker said...

tOSU gets in if UNC beats Clemson too, I don't think UNC will jump to the top 4 with a win

tem said...

Bengals won't cover

tem said...

If Clemson or Bama lose tOSU is in. They won't let anyone jump the defending champs.

tem said...

Especially if MSU beats iowa.

tem said...

Then they'd have by far the best loss.

Blue said...

I think UNC would get into the top 4 if they beat clemson

their only loss was in week 1 by 4 points to an SEC team, and you know even the bottom SEC teams are better than anybody in the big 10

Blue said...

i think the comittee looks at mSU as a two loss team

while they won, they really shouldn't have beat michigan, they weren't the better team

Keef said...

They also had something like a 40:00 to 20:00 TOP advantage against tOSU and could only manage a win on a last second FG

Blue said...

it's the eyeball test

Keef said...

If unc wins, they're in

Aitch said...

Ok, cooking experts, I have a question.

The last couple of times I've made steak on the stove, I've charred the outside, but gotten the perfect temp inside. I've just used a simple rub, hatred done oil in a pan until it's very hot, and put on the steak. What am I doing wrong?

tem said...

Too hot oil

tem said...

UNC isn't in unless they win by 21+

tem said...

UNC currently has about 0 good wins.

tem said...

tOSU destroyed a Michigan team people think is good. At michigan. They are the defending champs.

The committee will get them in if either Bama or Clemson loses.

Keef said...

Fuck off

Keef said...

LIONS!

Blue said...

Whoa

Aitch said...

Scott Weiland. Dead.

Aitch said...

Stone Temple Pilots singer, in case you didn't know. I'm guessing you all knew that one, though, unlike Dimebad Darrell.

tem said...

I had no idea who Scott Weiland was.

I have heard of Stone Temple Pilots. Have they been relevant in the last 10 years?

tem said...

Seems like I remember hearing about them when I was in college but haven't heard anything since.

That says little about their relevancy or popularity though.

tem said...

I thought UFC aldo vs mcgregor was this weekend but it is not. sad.

Keef said...

STP was like 20 years ago.

tem said...

That's like college time so Yay for my memory.

Aitch said...

They broke up in 2003. He also fronted Velvet Revolver with the former members of Guns n Roses

Blue said...

shocked by the weiland news. I mean, he was never into drugs, rehab, didn't have problems with addiction. I would have never guessed this would happen to him


(S)


Blue said...

I thought STP got back together recently, or at least they were touring or something


Keef said...

Just got an email from an agent...

"In regards to part of our conversation, we have a claim issue we need to nip in the bucket."



That might be my new favorite HDH

Blue said...

nip that bucket

Blue said...

is that agent named Craig Foster?

Keef said...

No

Blue said...

because that would be ironic

Keef said...

Uncle Joey

Aitch said...

Drugs are bad

Blue said...

drugs are only bad if you take them

Blue said...

that rodgers heave, made me a winner winner last night

Blue said...

flies in the vasaline we are

Blue said...

sometimes it blows my mind

Blue said...

keep getting stuck here all the tiiiiiiiiime

Meiz said...

I don't know if I can or can't believe Calvin wasn't in on defense for the hail mary. Randy Moss is ashamed of him.

Blue said...

would have been dumb

if he'd have gotten hurt trying to defend a hail mary, people would be outraged

Meiz said...

Then get Ebron in there.

Blue said...

why rush anyone, why not have a no man rush and put 11 guys back to cover 5 guys

Blue said...

hey isis, you weren't even close if you were coming after me, chumps

read a map bro

Keef said...

Made me lol

Meiz said...

"why rush anyone, why not have a no man rush and put 11 guys back to cover 5 guys"

Because Caldwell thought they were going to do the lateral play again.

Meiz said...

That's NS, by the way.

Blue said...

fyi, to the packer guy, the lateral play doesn't work when you throw it to the guy the farthest back and everyone else is 20 yards downfield

worst lateral ever

worked out for them, but worst ever.

if i was going to do the lateral play, no way my QB is even out there.

Keef said...

Free-agent pitcher Zack Greinke has agreed to a deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks, according to multiple reports.


Did not see that one coming

Blue said...

Rockies missed out again

El Padrino said...

updated blues post with picks instead of a new one, quick and dirty

no time for this shit

tem said...

I saw it coming

Aitch said...

What a shitty game by the Patriots

Blue said...

Fuckjng referees right h?

Aitch said...

Fucking special teams breakdowns.

tem said...

Chip won't get fired now

tem said...

Keith....ASU vs wvu hat bet or some other kind of bet?

Keef said...

Mos def

Keef said...

What kind of hat am I going to owe you?

Keef said...

Just noticed that I posted that 1 minute after your question. Total coincidence.

Keef said...

I'll take this hat if ASU wins. But they won't, so it doesn't matter.

Blue said...

seahawks played like the playoffs started yesterday

Meiz said...

Guys, Xanax is a solid A. Would recommend and have again.

Blue said...

yeah, so is cocaine, doesn't mean i'm taking any

Blue said...

fox news guy called obama a pussy


hilarity

Blue said...

i think this ecoli outbreak at chipotle is somehow tied to ISIS...bastards

I'm still getting my burrito, terrorists will not deter me

Keef said...

Blue, playing with fire. Take two. And, action.

Keef said...

I didn't know Stacey Dash was on foxnews

El Padrino said...

You watch fox news?

Keef said...

No, saw some tweet about her being suspended

tem said...

http://www.lids.com/NCAA/West-Virginia-Mountaineers/20509515

that one

Meiz said...

Job applicating has begun again.

Ridiculous job I've applied for, assistant library director.

Blue said...

Cmfost link

Meiz said...

And branch administrator for the local Ed Jones office in town.

Meiz said...

That's a bad hat, Tem.

tem said...

Ok meiz can pick one for me.

I don't wear hats. I don't know what the criteria is for a hat to be good.

Keef said...

That is a pretty gross hat. WADR

Jugdish said...

stick to your guns, tem

Keef said...

I probably shouldn't say anything because it costs less than the hat I want.

Meiz said...

Fly your fuckin' flag & put a Bucs or Rats hat on the board.

tem said...

It's a wvu vs ASU bet. I thought I had to go with wvu.

tem said...

It has 4.5 stars on its review.

tem said...

Meiz can pick a different hat for me or I'll just take the hat I cmfosted.

Keef said...

It's a wvu vs ASU bet. I thought I had to go with wvu.


You're right. Mize is lost in the pool.

Meiz said...

"It's a wvu vs ASU bet. I thought I had to go with wvu."


I didn't know there were constraints.

Meiz said...

Cumfast links on deck.


http://www.lids.com/NCAA/West-Virginia-Mountaineers/20799548

http://www.lids.com/NCAA/West-Virginia-Mountaineers/20786220

http://www.lids.com/NCAA/West-Virginia-Mountaineers/20756009 S

Blue said...

those hats are weak

i like the hat tem picked

solid hat

Blue said...

Tem should get this one

Blue said...

am i dumb to sit amari cooper in a bad matchup against the broncos

and play LG Blount against Houston?

If I win i'm in the playoffs, even if I lose and score more than the 5th place guy i'm in, but playing a guy in 2nd place.

this is my flex play and i'm on the fence

Keef said...

Jesus, mize. Those hats are awful. The only one that's better than the one tem picked is the middle one.

Keef said...

Cooper has been too hit or miss this year. Blount ain't doing shit either. James White ain't available in your league?

Blue said...

he is, i've got the #2 waiver spot so I might get him

Blue said...

good call, he's a much better play

that is, unless the pats decide to pound the ball on the ground

i basically hate all pats runningbacks in fantasy

Blue said...

i like amari a lot, but denver's D gave up 1 catch to a WR last week in San Diego


1


Meiz said...

"Jesus, mize. Those hats are awful. The only one that's better than the one tem picked is the middle one."

the flower one was a joke, Kev.

Keef said...

so you agree. Apology accepted

Keef said...

he is, i've got the #2 waiver spot so I might get him

Is it PPR? Even if he doesn't carry the ball, he'll have 6-10 catches

Blue said...

yes, it's PPR, so i'm hoping to pick him up

Blue said...

"Matt Schaub has had an interception returned for a touchdown in each of his past three games."

not sure why this is so funny to me, but it is

Jugdish said...

he had something like 4 or 6 games in a row with a pick six for the Texans one year.

Blue said...

i know, i guess that's why it's hilarity

Aitch said...

"i basically hate all pats runningbacks in fantasy"

This

Aitch said...

"e. Matt Schaub in a nutshell, from Michael David Smith of Pro Football Talk: Schaub has thrown a pick-six in six of his past nine games."

"Since 2013, Matt Schaub has thrown 13 touchdown passes to teammates and seven touchdown passes to defenders."

From MMQB and TMQ, respectively.

tem said...

Sounds like Denver is due to give up a big game to a WR.

tem said...

I'd play cooper.

Keef said...

wall

Blue said...

thanks Tem


so white is the play

Blue said...

makes me feel better about it

Keef said...

racist

Keef said...

Panthers QB Cam Newton says the accident a year ago today is a "constant reminder" to never take nothing for granted.



So...take everything for granted?

Blue said...

or something, or anything

Blue said...

herm edwards went OFF on NFL Live today

funny as hell

Blue said...

he's still got the fire

tem said...

What did he go off on? My hat selection?

Geez.

Blue said...

new picks

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