Thursday, October 08, 2015

Blue's choices

Well that was a historic week for me.  11-4 ATS, yahoo!.    EP was 7-7, bringing our totals for the year to 29-18 for me (that's pretty good) and 24-20 for EP, which is better than bad.  Honestly you could just fall into some of these picks, I mean, how does Vegas have all these big hotels if they can't even set the lines right.

(interrupted for baseball talk) The two road teams won the wild card play-in games.  Both had the better pitchers going.  Arrietta is just unbelievable, and Kuechel, well he's got a beard, he's named Dallas and he plays in Houston, so he's got that going for him.  Home field advantage is overrated in just about every sport other than football.  Football there has to be communication, so there is a distinct advantage to the home team when there is crowd noise.  Baseball, maybe it effects the hitters a little, but i'm not into that.  The one spot where it helps in baseball is comfort at the plate, that you're used to seeing the things you're seeing when you look out there beyond the mound, or defensively if you know the outfield wall, or whatever.  But for the most part it's overrated.  Basketball it's all about adrenaline, there really isn't an advantage other than yeah, whatever, Marty Mcfly already told us the Cubs win the World Series this year.

Back to the picks

Texans (-4.5) over Colts
Colts suck, and they won't have Luck again.  Colts should have lost their last two games and should be 0-4...but they aren't.  Hasselbeck gets the start, he's sick, on a short week, on the road, against JJ Watt.  My only concern with this line is whether or not the Texans can score enough points.  I'll take them here though, 17-10.

Bears (+10.5) over Chiefs
Arrowhead is a tough place to play, but that's way too many points for an average Chef's team.  Bears will have Cutler and Jeffery back, and are starting to put together enough pieces back on offense to keep this one close.  Chefs have their backs up against the wall, should come out swinging, and have a really good pass rush, but don't have enough firepower to drop 35 or 40 on the bears (they're still starting Alex Smith right?).  Foxy isn't afraid of arrowhead, or Andy Reid, and I would imagine they keep it close, but lose in the end.  I'll take the Chefs to win, but won't cover 24-20.

Seahawks (+3) over Bengals
I'm going to regret this one.  Bengals might be the most complete team in football.  They're at home against a West coast team in an early game (bad recipe for the seahawks) on a short week.  That defense though, starting to round into shape, having Kam back makes a ton of difference.  The bengals have a ton of weapons, and have been playing great.  I'm flip flopping back and forth on this one, but here's my tipping point.  Andy Dalton has been fantastic, he's looked awesome.  But, if you break it down, like I do, he's actually got the worst QBR in the league when facing pressure (it's true, look it up).  He just hasn't faced much pressure this year so far, and that's a small sample size. But, I think the seahawks bring the pressure.  They get to him a few times, knock him down a bunch, and he has an average game.  Final score, Seahawks 21-20.

Falcons (-8) over Redskins
This is a tough line.  I think the skins are better than being 8 point dogs. They run the ball and play great defense.  Atlanta at home against Kirk Cousins.  That running back kid the falcons has (Devonta Freeman) seems to score a lot of fantasy points, and Kyle Shanahan has this offense clicking.  The Falcons have had a really easy schedule, and this finishes out the 4 game NFC east sweep.  They are probably the most fake of the undefeated teams, but a win is a win, and looking at their schedule, they could easily be 9-0 before they play a "playoff team" (albeit one of the NFC east teams has to be a playoff team).  By the way, is there an easier schedule this year than drawing the NFC East and the AFC south, seems impossible to play two weaker divisions, add to that you get to play the bucs & saints twice each, and that's 10 wins without even breaking a sweat.  Falcons win this one 31-18.

Bucs (-2.5) over Jags
Look for Jameis to bounce back.  Jags are a hard luck team.  No real reason here, it's a toss-up and the winner gets to rule florida for the year.  Bucs 13-10.

Eagles (-4.5) over Saints
Another blockbuster game. Two coaches who will probably both be looking for work at the end of the year.  They can fight over the Texas job (hook 'em horns).  Eagles suck, saints suck.  Eagles at home I guess.  Saints defense is so bad, that even bradtard can have a good game.   Eagles 31-17

Ravens (-7) over Browns
The NFL schedule makers must have hated this week.  Another awful game.  Browns have been close in every game, but the JETS.  At some point don't you just have to start Johnny Football and say to hell with it.  I get you think that McCown gives you a better chance to win, but he won the one game he started, so I think Pettine doesn't get it.  Pettine is probably fired after this season.  Ravens 17 - 9

Packers (-10) over Rams
Is there a more sure thing than the packers at home.  Rodgers has been unreal at Lambau, and I don't believe Nick Foles has a chance in hell here.  Rams jumped up and surprised another super red-hot QB last week, so it's not out of the realm of possibility here if they can run the ball and...who am I kidding.  Packers 28-17

Bills (-1) over Titans
Titans are home dogs.  I think that Rex will just have too much for Mariota.  If the bills can stay out of their own way, then maybe they win this game.  Funny story about how rex is making guys do pushups in practice for penalties.  I'd laugh my ass off if in the game somebody pulled a Willie Mays Hayes.  Guy gets flagged for PI, and just drops down and starts doing pushups.   In the end, this might be a fun game to watch.  I like Mariota, and Whisenhunt has kept it simple enough (2 reads) for mariota to be successful.  So, the Titans keep it close, but can't get the win  Bills 23-20

Cardinals (-2.5) over Lions
Will the Lions win a game?  Tough schedule for sure to start the season.  This is an afternoon game, so it must be the FOX game of the week, no other explanation.  Cardinals bounce back from a tough division loss, and their CP3 gets back on track this week.  Cards are built for the dome, and Ford field is not a tough place to play.  Cards 37-8.

Pats (-10) over Cowboys
I hope Gisele does come to the game, she'll be leaving by halftime.  If there was another reason to poke the bear, jesus Greg Hardy.  Pats were already going to crush Weeden, and now...good god.  If I were a betting man, i'd say the Pats drop 40 on the hapless cowboys.  Pats 45-21.

Raiders (+4.5) over Broncos
Broncos just don't blow teams out.  Raiders should have won last week, heart breaking.  they've got some confidence, and there is nothing that Del Rio wants more than to shove it in Elway's face.  Del Rio knows the weaknesses of each of the individual guys on that Broncos defense (because he made them play like shit last year).  I still the broncos pull one out at the end, but it's closer than the spread.   Broncos 24-21.

49ers (+7) over Giants
Too many points for a not so great Giants team.  The Jim Tomsula watch is on though.  Kap will have a better week, and they travel cross country (but it's a night game).  I feel like Sunday Night Football might be stuck in the 90's cuz this would have been a great game then.  As it is, another week, I won't be watching.  Giants squeek one out 21-20

Steelers (+3) over Chargers
The chargers are not good.  The Steelers are good enough, no way they should be the dogs here.  Again, like last week.  The steelers still have Leveon Bell and Antonio Bryant.  Maybe this one is a shoot-out.  Maybe the steelers don't go stupid.  Maybe the steelers can make a field goal. Steelers will have had extra long to prepare after playing on a Thurdsay, so Vick should be a little more comfortable. Steelers win outright, 28-24.


Keef said...

Jug is a white sox fan I thought

LP being LP

tem said...

Chargers are getting the Phillip Rivers just had a good game so he'll do it again points.

He probably won't.

Blue said...

chargers should have gone to OT against the browns, but the browns dude was offsides on the game winning FG attempt (that Chargers dude missed), he then calmly made the second attempt 5 yards closer in.

Blue said...

again, this is why pettine is getting fired

Blue said...


El Padrino said...

Dangerous team. Can see them playing for it all. Legitimate lineup. Stone cole ace. Great story. Rabid fans. Quirky manager the media slobs over. Its all there.

El Padrino said...

No bartman is key

El Padrino said...

Colts tonight.

Mallet sucks I'll take an old dude with a stomach virus over the mallet/hoyer combo all day

El Padrino said...

The real play is under 41.5

Keef said...

Can't wait for the 27-21 finish

El Padrino said...

Freak things would have to occur.

El Padrino said...

It sucks that Kershaw is due for some post season success.

Keef said...

He's not playing StL so he'll be fine.

Blue said...

he's the matthew stafford of MLB

Meiz said...

You mean Andy Dalton

El Padrino said...

I'm addicted to Buffalo chicken

tem said...

Kershaw has a touch of downs?

El Padrino said...

Freak play. Ridic. Exactly how not to defense a hail Mary. Unreal.

El Padrino said...

Lol hoyer

Aitch said...

"No bartman is key"

If the Cubs make it to the World Series™, the A.L. team should hand Bartman throw out the first pitch.

Aitch said...


Blue said...

fans started a go fund me site to send him to the wild card game in Pittsburgh and he turned them down

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