Thursday, September 24, 2015

Week 3 Picks

Not to toot my own horn but somebody last week said "the only way the Broncos win is if they get a defensive TD and a few key turnovers." Well Toot-toot, 5 turnovers including 2 in the redzone, and the back breaker that was the fumble returned for a TD. That's about all that went right last week, and I still missed on that pick.  9 Wins last week, so i'm roughly .500, i'll take it, especially since EP was 7-8 on only picking 15 games.  So i'm 1.5 games up.  Also, i realized I made you read the paragraphs to see who I picked, so i'll fix that this week.  I'm about efficiency.

before I get started: a couple of "unbelievables" from the first 2 weeks.  

unbelievable that the raiders not only covered against the ravens, but flat out beat them.  maybe it's because the ravens spent the week hanging out with all the chins in the bay area instead of going home.

unbelievable that the rams looked so awful. i mean awful awful.  Maybe the skins are that much better but I doubt it.  when you build your team around your defensive line (Rams), getting run on for 182 yards

unbelievable that the bucs beat the saints.  I think this might be sean payton's last year. I thought the bucs would hang in there because of pride, you know, but didn't expect them to go into the dome and actually win.  It also makes me laugh because all of the ESPN fantasy geeks were loading up their teams with Saints players, so that happened.

unbelievable that Andrew Luck is 0-2, and they look awful (two sexy analyst superbowl picks, ravens and colts, are a combined 0-4)

On to the picks:

Skins +4 vs G-MEN
So i was completely wrong about the redskins, or maybe the rams, but not at all wrong about the shitty giants.  Outside of OBJ, they have nothing...NOTHING.  Skins can run the ball, and will run it all the way down wall street (or whatever roads they have in New Jersey).  Thursday night road games suck though, and I like the home teams to win ugly games on Thursdays.  Giants probably win, but only by 1 point, 16-15

Falcons (off) vs Cowboys
No Romo, no dez, no witten, no fucking chance.  Matty Ice lucks out here.  The falcons defense has looked pretty decent in the first 2 weeks.  Playing again on turf, and mostly inside, they should have another good showing.  Without even looking at the line or anything, how much would you ever bet on Brandon Weeden?  If you were looking for your suicide pick this week, it's the falcons. Falcons win 22-11

Colts -3 vs Titans
At some point Andrew Luck has to win a game right?  He played against two of the better defenses in the first couple of weeks.  No need to hit the panic button for them, they play in a shitty division, they're only a game back, and thus can still win the division going 7-9.  Titans showed they can't cover the deep ballz, and TY and Luck like to go ballz deep. I also realize that i'm taking the road team so far in each of the first three games.  Colts win 29-18

Raiders +3.5 vs Browns
Shit I don't know, Raiders suck, Browns suck.  I'm going with the don't trust a west coast team playing the early game on the east coast rule (fuck ohio). Browns win a close one but don't cover, 19-17.

Ravens -2.5 vs Bengals
Flacco can't start 0-3, right?  Home opener for the ravens.  Bengals have had two easy games in the first two weeks, well maybe the Chargers weren't that easy.  I'm adding, never bet against a decent team that was embarrassed the week before, and is now having their home opener.  And I never want to bet ON andy dalton.  Ravens roll 26-19

Patriots -14.5 vs Jaguars
Jeez, that's a lot of points.  The jags are coming off a big win and are now the champions of Florida.  Still seems like a lot of points.  Tom Brady is playing ok, and the offense is doing well for the pats, but that's a lot of points to give.  Still not sold on their defense, but belichick has figured it out before, but 2tds is a lot to give up.  That's a lot of points though, and most NFL games are not double digit games.  This one i'm iffy on, no doubt the pats win the game, but do they have the venom in them to destroy the champions of Florida?  Pats win 30-11.

Panthers -3  vs Saints
Panthers D is playing well, but no Luke Keuchly again.  It will be the last season for the Sean Payton crew, if this game was in New Orleans, with a healthy Brees, i'd probably pick the saints, but it 'aint.  Panthers don't have much offense, or any really, it's a field position game for them, and get a couple of big plays and see what happens.  3 points is a lot for the panthers to cover, but i think they will.  22-17

Eagles +1 vs JETS
Why are the JETS only giving up one point here?  Short week I guess, maybe they'll be tired.  Ok you convinced me.  I don't think the Jets can count on forcing 5 turnovers every week, Decker might be hurt, i don't know.  Chip maybe figures it out, but I like the idea that the Jets on a short week against a fast break offense will be tired, so eagles 34-23

Holy jeez, are there always this many morning games?

Bucs +7 vs Texans
Texans aren't as bad as they've looked.  Bucs aren't as good as they looked last week.  JJ Watt and Brian Cushing against Jameis Winston?  But Ryan Mallett?  ok, so this game sucks.  Texans probably win, but don't deserve to be 7 point favorites against anyone.  Final score Texans win 18-17

Chargers +1 vs Vikings
Again, not a fan of a team heading east and playing the early game, but I don't think the vikings defense is very good.  Phyllis has played really well the first two weeks, Teddy Bridgewater, not so much.  The vikings went back to just give the ball to AD, and lets see what happens.  Good plan.  Chargers are just too much, win 18-16

Steelers (even) vs Rams
Rams are good-ish at home, but fuck them.  If you can't stop the running game of the skins, how are you going to stop Leveon Bell.  Who is now back and fresh.  I'll miss deangelo williams because i picked him up and stole some good points in the first two weeks.  Steelers offense has looked good in each of the first two weeks, and the rams defense is too inconsistent at this point.  Gotta take the Steelers 24-9

49ers +7 vs Cards
Overreaction line of the week.  The 9ers played on a really short week across country.  They'll be better rested this week, and a divisional opponent.  I like the cards to win the game, but giving 7 is just too much.  Nothing has made me think that the cards who seem to get weird touchdowns every week, are for real.  No running game..etc.  I like Carson Palmer, I like the cards in the game, but no way they can cover this number.  Cards win 23-20.

Bills +2.5 vs Dolphins
What about the first two weeks has made you think the *fish, should be favored here?  While the Bills got bombarded by the pats, there were parts of the game where they were competitive, and it just got away from them.  Bills are the better team, they win this one 26-20


Seahawks -15.5 vs Bears
Line is too big here.  I know that Jimmy Claussen will be starting here. Hawks first home game, Kam bam is back.  That's a huge line, and if the Seahawks backs weren't against the wall, i'd take the points, but just too many colliding forces.  Bears will try and run the ball with Forte and control the clock, making this a low scoring game, but I don't see how they score any points.  Seahawks 19-0

Lions +3 vs Broncos
Broncos defense is tough.  Their offense sucks right now, and I think it may continue to suck.  This all depends on if Stafford is going to play, which i'm assuming he is.  If Dan Orlovsky or whoever their backup is plays, then I get the right to change this pick and i'm taking the Broncos.  I'm picking it both wayz, how you like them apples.  Stafford plays, Lions win 22-19, home opener, Broncos can't keep getting lucky with turnovers at opportune times.  Megatron gets behind the defense a couple of times.  If Orlovsky plays, Broncos win 19-13, just not enough firepower for the lions.

Packers -7.5 vs Chiefs
Chiefs have a pretty good defense, extra rest time. But they still have Alex Smith and Andy Reid.  Tough matchup here for the chiefs, and Aaron Rodgers doesn't lose at home.  Packers here in a rout...34-12.


I took too many road teams this week, but whatever.








16 comments:

Blue said...

first

Jugdish said...

Bears will try and run the ball with Forte and control the clock, making this a low scoring game


it'll be low scoring for the Bears, they've got that covered.

El Padrino said...

Suite.

El Padrino said...

Seahawk line couldn't be big enough

Keef said...

especially since EP was 7-8 on only picking 15 games.

LP picked the Chiefs too.

Keef said...

Blue takes Cleveland -3.5 and then says Browns win a close one but don't cover, 19-17.

Meiz said...

"i'd probably pick the saints, but it 'aint."


Misplaced apostrophe. Ain't.

Keef said...

I don't think two teams will end up with 11 pts this week

Blue said...

now that everyone is going for 2, 11 points is a regular score

Blue said...

fixed the browns game. I flip flopped a bunch on that one because who cares

Blue said...

all the scores I picked were weird scores, i'm not trying to pick the final score, just who wins against the spread

Meiz said...

I like Blue's picks columns

tem said...

Yes. Good

Meiz said...

FUCK

I'm now playing 9 vs 10 this week. FUCK.

Jugdish said...

Amazon Prime is $67 today

Aitch said...

I'm in the same boat, Meiz. Fucking Matt Jones

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