Thursday, September 17, 2015

NFL Week 2 picks

I'm starting a new trend.  Every week on Thursday morning, i'm going to pick the games of the week in the NFL, and tell you who is going to win.  I'll keep track of my record, and at the end of the year, I will throw a party that you're all invited to, to celebrate how awesome of a season I had picking games.

Before I pick any games, I've got a beef.  Flat bill caps.  I know we've talked about this before, but if you're over the age of 18, flat bill cap look is awful.  I give a pass to athletes because they get a new hat every game/every day, so breaking in a new hat everyday would be inefficient.  But the guy who is 38 and wearing a flat bill cap with his 13 year old son, looks like a fool.  Look buddy, you're an adult, act like one.  This wasn't respectable when you were 13, so don't be that guy.

One other thing.  I thought of this while watching Matt Ryan monday night.  There are a lot of pretty good QBs right now who will probably never win a superbowl.  I can't remember in other eras, good QBs that didn't win Superbowls besides Marino.  I'm looking at Phyllis Rivers, Matt Ryan, Carson Palmer, Tony Romo and knowing that they'll never even play in the Superbowl, let alone win one.  While shit QBs like Eli, Flacco, Roethlisberger (he was crap when he won his 2), all have wins.  More so than ever before, I think over the last 10-15 years proves that having a solid defense and enough supporting pieces wins championships, which gives me hope for the Broncos, because after this year, they'll have "just a guy" as QB, and hopefully enough pieces around him.  Or maybe they'll get Matt Ryan.

On to the picks (home team in Bold) (spreads by Bovada)

Chiefs(-3) vs Broncos
I'm a big believer on taking the home team on Thursday night games.  Especially if the home team is a division rival, and have a strong home field advantage.  KC's defense is pretty stout, good pass rush, and better in the secondary now that Eric Berry is back.   Broncos defense is for real, will be one of the best in the league this year, and will carry them in certain games.  This is one where the only way the Broncos win is if they get a defensive TD and a few key turnovers.  Old Man Manning on a short week, on the road, after he got beat the hell up last week, and hasn't looked good in the new system yet...can't take the broncos...Chefs beat the Broncos 17-13 this week.

Patriots (-2.5) vs Bills
I like the pats here.  I think the worst thing that happened to Buffalo and Rex Ryan was that they destroyed an average Colts team last week.  Now they believe they are better than they really are.  Buffalo is a tough place to play, and their defense is for real.  The pats defense is awful, but the offense is going to score enough points most games to win.  H, get used to watching shootouts this year.  Shady McCoy might be done, and I like Tyrod Taylor, but the Bills don't have enough firepower.  maybe if this was week 12, and we had more of a sample size from Tyrod, but I gotta lay the points and take the Pats 31-24.

Cardinals (-2.5) vs Bears
Carson Palmer just wins with Bruce Arians.  I thought the cards were just smoke and mirrors 2 years ago. I thought they were overrated last year.  They're not exciting, they're not great in any one area, but they are solid across the board.  That being said, i'm picking the bears and Cutler in this one.  I like John Fox, he's good until he wears out his welcome.  I was encouraged that the Bears stayed in the game with Green Bay all the way to the end.  I don't like the cards on the road, outside, in the wind and muck of Chicago.  Taking the Bears for the straight up win  24-21.

Bengals (-3.5) vs Chargers
I never take a west coast team, in an early game, on the east coast.  The time difference screws them up.  Bengals destroyed the Raiders last week, and I look for more of the same this week.  Maybe destroy is a tough word.  Bengals have a good running attack, Tyler Eifert looks fully healthy and is a solid weapon for Dalton.  I fucking hate red heads, but since this isn't the playoffs, I think Dalton does enough to win.  Phil Rivers showed that he's still a force to be reckoned with.  But if Detroit had just covered Keenan Allen, maybe one time, they win that game.  San Diego can't go on the road and beat a playoff team, not right now.  Bengals win 28-21

Titans (-1) vs Browns
I guess all it takes is one road win where your rookie QB looks like Dan Marino to start being the favorites on the road.  Granted they're playing the Browns, but i'm not sold on the Titans after one game.  On paper, the Browns are the better team.  Not sure if McCown is going to play, he probably shouldn't anyway.  Manziel makes too many mistakes, and this game is just a flaming pile of garbage.  I like Mariota, I liked him better than Winston before the draft, I still like him better, but one game doesn't put you in the HOF.  Lets pump the brakes here a little.  Cleveland has a better defense than Tampa, and should look to confuse the Flyin Hawaiian.  I'm taking Cleveland here, just because I don't think the Titans are there yet, but shit, this one is a toss-up.  Cleveland wins 17-14

Vikings (-3) vs Lions
I know the vikings opened against a decent defense on the road.  But holy shit they looked like crap.  There was no blocking for AP, Teddy looked uncomfortable the entire time, and I'm sick of Norv Turner already.  I know the Lions aren't a great road team, and hardly ever win outside, and megatron might be done.  But if you're giving me 3 points here i'm taking them.  Blair Walsh kicks like a girl, and they have no confidence in him, besides his name is Blair...what a pussy.  I think this comes down to a FG difference, but i'm going the other way and taking the Lions 27-24. (although 24 seems unlikely unless they score 3 TDS and go for 2 each time, because of Blair)

Saints (-10) vs Bucs
I know that winston looked bad.  I know that the saints are a much better team at home.  But I don't give anybody 10 points in week 2 unless the team giving the points maybe was a superbowl contender.  Saints have no weapons outside of Brandin Cooks.  This offense sucks, the defense can't stop anybody. I can't believe that Rob Ryan is still on the sideline for New Orleans, but I'm not sure it's his fault, they just don't have anything on that side of the ball. Bucs looked bad, got blown out at home by a rookie QB.  They are better than that, but I'm not sure how much better.  Lovie might not last the whole season if things continue like that.  Running game really never got going, and they didn't protect Jameis very well.  This week, they get some of that rolling, and Dirk Koetter starts to figure out how to not suck. I think NO wins the game but they don't cover.  Saints win 28-21.

Giants (-2) vs Falcons
Not sure how the g-men are favored here.  They shit the bed against the Cowboys.  They were actually dominated by the boys in that game so the fact that they should have won was amazing.  Falcons on the other hand, look like they really like Dan Quinn.  Kyle Shanahan has that offense humming along, and as long as Julio Jones stays healthy, this should be a competitive team.  I don't buy into the falcons on the road outside nonsense here.  Matt Ryan played at BC, he can handle the elements, plus it's fall in New Jersey, not winter in Buffalo.  Giants running game is atrocious, Eli will be Eli, and in the end the Falcons win this game 24-17.

Steelers (-6) vs 49ers
This is a matchup of two teams that probably aren't as good as the stats from last week told you.  Steelers played against an awful defense, and still couldn't figure out how to win.  9ers played against a horrible offense, so holding them to 3 points wasn't much of an accomplishment. I will say that the 9ers are imminently more fun to watch if you read the running diary of the Aussie reporter who is live blogging every game.  I think Australians are just funny anyway, but this guy describing american football is just hilarious.  I play the West Coast teams playing the early game on the east coast card here again.  Plus the 9ers played the really late game monday night, so somewhat of a quick turnaround for them.  I'll take the Steelers for the win here 28-13.

Rams (-3.5) vs Redskins
Spiff's skins actually looked pretty good last week.  If they had a real QB, they might have a shot at winning 7 games, but Kirk Cousins is a joke.  This Rams defense is for real, they will molest Kirk Cousins and make him look like he just ate an onion sandwich.  Skins o-line has probably the toughest first 2 weeks in the league between the Dolphins and now the Rams.  I think Nick Foles is better than people give him credit.  Rams should have Tre Mason and Todd Gurley this week.  I like the Rams to win the NFC west this year...I said it.  I think they win this game going away... Rams win 31-13.

Man, there are a lot of games you have to pick

Panthers (-3) vs Texans
These are two good defensive teams.  Although the texans are pretty weak in the secondary.  I enjoyed hard knocks and it made me hate JJ Watt even more than I already did.  Panthers might not have Kuechly this week which makes them not as tough defensively.  Texans are starting Ryan Mallett, who should be decent as long as he wakes up in time for the game.  Cam Newton doesn't have anyone, and I mean anyone, to throw the ball to.  I like the Texans here, backup QB and all.  Final score 21-20 Texans on a JJ Watt something play. (he might kick the game winning extra point, i don't know)

Ravens (-6) vs Raiders
Raiders are bad, even both starting safeties are now out for a long period of time.  Truth is that the safeties weren't that great (yes even charles woodson has lost a lot of steps), so the WAR or whatever statistic you have for replacement players isn't that big of a gap.  Ravens don't have any weapons on offense, none, not one.  Zero. I mean, not any.  Suggs is out because he's a big vagina with weak achilles.  Derek (not David) Carr might not play because of something wrong with his hand, Amari Cooper probably has a concussion from Pacman's bullshit.  (by the way, i get it's the heat of the moment and all that, but if somebody like Richie Incognito had done that, dude would be out of the league, why does Pacman get a pass?, and how do the Raiders players not do some crazy vigilante justice shit?  In my day, we'd have taken care of pacman a few plays later, backup TE would have cheap shotted him and sent him to the hospital, but I digress).  Ravens win 20-3

Dolphins (-6.5) vs Jags
How is this a "late game" on Sunday?  Did CBS say, boy we really want the "battle of florida" to be our marquee afternoon game in week 2?  Maybe CBS doesn't have the doubleheader this week, i don't know, i'm not columbo.  I don't know anything about the Jaguars, except that they have Blake Bortles, and he's the king of preseason.  Dolphins win 38-12.

Eagles (-5.5) vs Cowboys
I don't care that the cowboys don't have Dez.  I don't care that their running game is garbage right now.  I don't care that they should have lost to the Giants.  The eagles were a joke against a not great team last week.  How are they a) favored & b) favored by 5.5?  Bradtard didn't look great, and really the only reason the game was remotely close was that the falcons got tired.  Cowboys win 31-24

Packers (-3.5) vs Seahawks
Legion of boom isn't the same without the actual BOOM.  Seahawks miss Kam Chancellor, but that entire defense has lost it's swagger.  When was the last time the seahawks scored 31 and lost?  When was the last time they gave up 34?    Packers at home, sunday night, with a score to settle, give me the pack big, 27-13.  I think after this game if seattle doesn't pay Kam, they may not make the playoffs.

Colts (-7) vs Jets
All those analysts that were picking the colts as the hot team to win the AFC, wonder where they are right now. Colts looked awful.  They did a  better job of stopping the run, but Frank Gore looks old, Andre Johnson looks old, TY Hilton got hurt, their offensive line had all kinds of trouble.  I think the Colts get back on track this week at home, but probably don't cover.  Jets defense looks strong, they're going to blitz and blitz some more.  They have a great secondary, although not sure that cromartie will play this week.  I like the addition of Brandon Marshall for the Jets.  Decker is not good enough to be the #1 receiver, but with marshall that sets up a really good duo, and Decker becomes a great #2 (like poo).  I think the JETS keep it close and cover, but eventually fall to the Colts.  Final score 24-20



38 comments:

Jugdish said...

I give a pass to athletes because they get a new hat every game/every day, so breaking in a new hat everyday would be inefficient.


that's what the clubhouse attendants are for.

Blue said...

they would just shrink them below NFL standards

Tyler said...

The Flatbiller trend originated from the Inland Empire. It's the highest form of douchebaggery.

Keef said...

TP

Blue said...

yeah, since i've moved to San Diego, flatbilling is out of control

Blue said...

i love that the murderer is on the front page picture with Urban meyer on that ESPN article

Meiz said...

Pic of JPP's hand is out. Gross.

El Padrino said...

Nice have another post scheduled for tomorrow didn't see this.

Meiz said...

Dueling NFL picks!

Blue said...

no posts for months, and then 2 in 2 days.

it's like old times again

Tyler said...

Wait, Blue moved to SD?

Blue said...

yes, blue lives in San Diego, for the time being

Tyler said...

Is it me or does Tyrod Taylor sound like a wrestler from the '80s or early '90s? Every time I hear someone talk about him, I imagine Vince McMahon announcing his entrance on Saturday Night's Main Event. "And here were go, this is TY-ROD TAY-LOR!"

Tyler said...

And his gimmick is he's a mechanic. Because he works on tie rods all day.

Tyler said...

Ok, good talk.

Blue said...

Pretty good gimmick for him

i imagine him as the lost son of Tim the toolman Taylor

Meiz said...

"Ok, good talk."

This is what you get these days.

Meiz said...

Blue & Tyler are practically neighbors now.

Keef said...

Wait, Blue moved to SD?


And mize is a manager or something. And jug is expecting a 3rd kid. And LP isn't great at anything anymore. And H drives for Lyft now. And I just got a $.75 raise at HD. And tem something something.

At least one of those things is made up.

Blue said...

yep, live about as close to each other as you and Tem

Blue said...

or H and EP

El Padrino said...

Jug hit another home run. Wtf

El Padrino said...

Blue we eerily have similar comments in our analysis. Should be fun.

Blue said...

so you copy and pasted

got it

Jugdish said...

"Jug hit another home run. Wtf"


"At least one of those things is made up."


Keef said...

LP really is the best

ToddPacker said...

"TP"

they should have waited until after they lose to Kentucky this weekend until running that article

Blue said...

""Jug hit another home run. Wtf""

??

El Padrino said...

Phew. 3 is fucking insane. Two is bonkers.

El Padrino said...

El pad doesn't have to copy and paste. He drops his own gems.

tem said...

Does blue know where temhio is?

tem said...

Good post. I will attend the party.

Aitch said...

Yea, I was wondering when they moved Cincinnati to the east coast.

El Padrino said...

Blue is correct. Chiefs are the play tonight. -3

tem said...

Cincinnati?

Aitch said...

"Bengals (-3.5) vs Chargers
I never take a west coast team, in an early game, on the east coast."

El Padrino said...

Love football but still not a fan of these Thu night games. They are just never good. Mad sloppy.

El Padrino said...

That was a brtual throw

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