Thursday, December 31, 2015

Week 17 picks

The last post of 2015.  We fell apart in 2015, and I blame Tyler.  2015 has been an interesting year.  I found out I don't like living in San Diego.  It's a great place to visit, but not to live. I found out that 3rd place in my big money fantasy league doesn't get you any money.  I found out that Bruce Jenner always wanted to be a chick. I found out ISIS is bad, but they are not good at using maps. I found out the French may be assholes, but sucks when they get attacked. I found out Black lives matter. I found out that protesting and rioting still happens and can be scary.  I found out the media likes to blow things out of proportion.  I found out that Donald Trump might be the most fun political candidate of all time.  but most of all, i found out that I don't know shit about anything.  Steph Curry, like whoa in 2015.  Mets and Cubs became real teams again.  Deflated footballs are a big deal, until they aren't.  Some people maybe used HGH.  Ronda Rousey is a fake.  Tiger Woods is done.  Peter Rose is still banned.  hockey something. the SEC is not great at football. Chip Kelly sucks.  your mom sucks.  H doesn't want as much attention anymore.  Keith is less of a smart ass.  Tem has no time for this shit (RIP TCS).  EP is worse than me at picking nfl games.  Jug is no longer an astronaut.  Meiz is good at trivia, until he's not. beth still exists (maybe). Tyler changed jobs and waited a long time for some tools to ship (via twitter, not LOV) And people who like star wars are nerds apparently.

On to the picks.  Last week I was 6-9-1 thank you very much.  Brings my annual total to 118-99-6 (.543).  El Padrino was 5-9-1 bringing his total all the way up to 102-98-6 (.510).  I don't know if he can catch me, it would involve math, and i'm not good at that.  I guess there is always the playoffs too.

Bills +3 vs Jets
It's so Jets to lose this game.  Classic.  Rex may have his team fired up for this game.  I mean it's still the team that fired him, and they have a chance to get to .500.  And spoil the Jets playoffs hopes.  It's a tsunami of positives for the Bills.  Jets probably blow this one because of the high they have coming off of beating the living tar out of New England.  Just classic Jets.  Bills win 17-14

Pats -11.5 vs Dolphins
Last game of the Dan Campbell era.  Interesting to see who the Dolphins get to come coach that team.  Pats still have something to play for, they have to win to keep from going to Denver in the playoffs.  Maybe Belichick doesn't care about home field, but I bet he does.  Pats jump out big and coast with Garapolo in the second half.  31-17.

Saints +4 vs Falcons
Falcons superbowl was last week.  Saints are just playing for pride, and could be the last game with the Saints for both Brees and Payton.  Or it could not be, who knows.  Anyway, i think the saints win this outright because the falcons are garbage.  Saints 31-28

Ravens +10 vs Bengals
one thing i learned last week, division rivalries are no gimme.  Even though the Bengals are far and away the better team, John Harbaugh will have his team ready to play and compete, and if they can go into 2016 having beat both the bengals and the steelers it will give them a ton of momentum for next year.  That being said, they won't win the game, but they'll keep it close.  AJ McCarron is not that great.  Look, they moved the ball in the first half against the broncos, but AJ Green and Marvin Jones each had about 3 or 4 catches on the sideline that were spectacular at keeping their feet in bounds to keep those drives alive.  It's not like AJ was shredding the defense.  Anyway, I like the bengals to win because they're the better team 24-17

Steelers -11.5 vs Browns
Another divisional game, pride on the line...etc.  The Steelers won't be fooled again. It just won't happen.  They need some help to get into the playoffs, but they have to take care of their own business first, and they'll do just that.  38-10 and the Mike Pettine era ends in Cleveland with a whimper.

Jags +7 vs Texans
I know Hoyer is going to play, but I just like Blake Bortles better.  Texans are probably going to win, have the better defense for sure.  But the Jags are no slouch, their coach is coming back next year, and they've done some decent things this year.  They haven't been good on the road though, and that's the sign of a young team.  I think the texans win 24-20 so won't cover that spread.

Colts (off) vs Titans
I'll take the colts here in the battle of who the fuck?  If Hasselbeck can't play, who knows who the Colts will throw out there at QB, but it's still better than Mettenberger.  a lot of talk about Chip Kelly going to the Titans next year, but doubtful.  I like either Adam Gase or Josh McDaniels there better than Chip.  Colts will be looking for a new coach too, and both Gase and McDaniels should be on their radar.  How about that for McD, if he were to go to the hated Colts organization.  Maybe there is too much hatred for that.  I don't know. either way, colts win 24-7

Skins +3.5 vs Cowboys
That line has to be wrong right?  Is it because the skins are bad on the road?  has vegas not been watching these two teams. Kirk Cousins keeps the mojo going, they win 24-14.

Eagles +3.5 vs Giants
One of those, our coach got fired, so now we're going to play really hard games.  Giants may be playing to save Coughlin's job.  I don't know, he's got 2 superbowls and who are you going to get that's better.  Giants did not look interested in playing at all last week, so no reason to think they'll be any better this week.  I'll take the points Eagles win 24-21

Lions (pick 'em) vs Bears
Lions are playing a lot better lately.  5-2 in their last seven games, and one was the stupid hail mary game, and the other was a bogus call against the seahawks or they've won seven straight.  Bears were hot for a bit in the middle of the season, but haven't finished strong.  I'm going with the hotter team right now.  This run may have saved Jim Caldwell for another year.  Lions win 31-24

Chargers +10 vs Broncos
Broncos shouldn't be giving 10 points to anyone. Will be interesting to see how short of a leash Osweiler is on, now that Manning is back as the backup.  Will he be looking over his shoulder after every poorly thrown ball?  I think the broncos win this game because of their defense, but unless they get at least 1 if not 2 defensive scores, they don't beat anyone by double digits.  This has the feel of a 17-10 game, so i'll take that for the broncos.

Panthers -11.5 vs Bucs
Panthers need this game to keep HFA throughout the playoffs. And they looked like stink last week, so they'll be focused and come out intense and ready to go.  I like what Winston has done, gotten a little better each week.  The only way the panthers don't cover is if they get way ahead, bring in derek anderson, and let the bucs get a late TD to cover in garbage time.  Which could happen.  but i'm betting against it.  Panthers win 31-17.

Raiders +7.5 vs Chiefs
This is a game the Chiefs have to have.  They could move all the way up to the 3 seed and host a playoff game if they win and the Broncos lose.  So you know they'll come out motivated.  Raiders last game for Charles Woodson.  They'll play their asses off.  Plus it's a division rival, and you don't just roll over for them.  Raiders win and they get to 8-8, so you know the team wants to hit that magic .500 number.  Chiefs have been riding high, and I keep thinking they'll have an emotional let down and get bit eventually.  This is the week.  Raiders win, in shocking fashion on a Janikowski 58 yard FG in the snow 24-23.

Seahawks +7 vs Cardinals
I like how the NFL messed with the kickoff time of the Panthers and Chief's games so that nobody knows if they can just put it on cruise control and not play their guys.  Cardinals still have a shot at the #1 seed, so you expect them to come out and play hard.  Seahawks need to win so they have a shot at playing the Skins as opposed to going to Green Bay or Minnesota next week.  Plus the seahawks just got embarrassed last week.  They are a championship team, so they rebound hard.  Cardinals might be the best team in the NFC, but hawks win this one.  31-30

49ers +3 vs Rams
I'll take the home dog here.  No real reason.  49ers win 21-20

Vikings +3 vs Packers
Pack has dominated this series. A lot at stake for both teams here.  The winner gets to host a playoff game next week, loser goes on the road, maybe against this same team.  Weird scheduling for the packers if they win, they'll have played at Arizona, then home against the Vikings, then home again against the vikings, and if they win that game, go back to Arizona (assuming the cards don't get the #1 seed).  not much to say about this other than, the packers look awful at a time of year you shouldn't look awful.  Vikings had their best game of the season last week and have been clubbing fools the last few weeks.  I'll take the vikings in an upset here 21-17.


Thursday, December 24, 2015

Merry Christmas assholes (and picks) and more picks!

I say Merry Christmas, fuck happy holidays

Was thinking about this the other day.  What is your favorite sneaky xmas movie.  Like a movie that could be on any time of the year, but it also has a christmas theme, but not necessarily obvious.  Like Christmas vacation is great, but it's obvious it's a christmas movie, same with a christmas story...etc. Cmblue's favorite in this category is "love actually".  That's the example.  A movie that isn't necessarily about christmas, but takes place during christmas maybe.  My example, is die hard.  Anytime cmblue makes me watch love actually, we chase it with Die Hard.   Anyway, thought I'd kick that one out there to see if there are any other great ones i can't remember.

On to the picks:  Last week I went 11-4-1 it's a christmas miracle.  I am now all the way up to 112-90-5.  (.554).  That's a good enough week.  EP struggled along at 7-7-1 (not including his miss on thursday night).  Gets his season total up to 97-89-5 (.521).  Hopefully he'll break the 100 win mark this week.  Maybe?

Raiders -6 vs Chargers
Christmas Eve game.  Both teams are hoping santa brings them a new home next year. The Chargers blew their load last week.  Can't believe I missed the "last game in San Diego" undertones coming from that game, and should have known they'd come out fired up.  Rookie mistake.  Raiders played the Packers pretty tough.  Raiders are the better team, and here is to two teams that next year could be sharing a stadium.  Speaking of which, how shitty would it be if the NFL only allowed the chargers and rams to move, and the raiders were stuck in Oakland.  I'll take the raiders to win outright 36-24.

Redskins +3 vs Eagles
muy importante game for the nfc least.  skins win and it all but locks up a playoff spot for them.  or maybe it does lock up a playoff spot, i don't know.  Skins have been playing well the last few weeks and have figured it out a little bit on the road.  Desean Jackson always likes to play in Philly, and maybe kirk cousins is the new santa claus.  I'm riding the skins here because I haven't picked them right pretty much all season (you're welcome eagles fans) Skins win 31-28.

Pats -3 vs Jets
These games are usually close.  I wouldn't put it past belichek (i can never spell his name right), to throw this game just so the JETS can stay alive in the playoff hunt.  JETS have to win out to get in, and hope the Broncos, chiefs, Steelers, lose one more.  And since the chiefs and steelers aren't losing again, it would only be the Broncos that would get left out.  So do I think that Belichek knows this? of course I do.  Do I think he'd create some shenanigans to keep the broncos out of the playoffs, you bet he would.  All that being said, consipiracy theories abound, i'm still taking the pats 31-24.

Texans (off) vs Titans 
I'm guessing it's not on the books because nobody is sure if Hoyer will play.  Who do you hate more, Brandon Weeden or Zach Mettenberger.  I'm going with the team here that has something left to play for.  Also, I think Hoyer will play.  And the texans have a stout defense.  So that's my pick, who do you have?  Texans win 31-10

Chiefs -13 vs Browns
Never thought i'd lay 13 points with the chiefs.  Does Johnny Football have a miracle left in him?  Chiefs control their own playoff destiny.  Pretty sad that the wildcard teams in the AFC, even though on the road, will be favored no matter who their opponent will be.  Chiefs have opened up the offense, and all of a sudden Alex Smith thinks he's back at Utah.  Gary Barnidge rented out a theater for his teammates to watch Star Wars tonight (christmas eve) at 7:30.  Apparently, he invited anyone else who wants to come, on twitter, to join him and his teammates.  I'm sure this will go well.  This game won't be close, i'll take the chefs to win big 38-10.

Colts +2.5 vs Dolphins
No idea who is playing QB for the colts, doesn't matter.  Dolphins packed their season in a long time ago.  Pagano will be playing with his grandkids back in Idaho, this time next year.  I will take the colts in a rout.  17-10

49ers +10.5 vs Lions
Lions have been playing a lot better here in the second half of the season.  makes jim caldwell look all that much worse of a coach in the first half though.  49ers are what they are.  They're tough enough though that they keep games relatively close.  I'll give Tomsula credit for that, they haven't quit on the season yet.  I had this game picked the other way, then decided I can't lay that many points, so while I think the Lions win, it's only by a TD.  Lions 24-17

Cowboys +7 vs Bills
This is one of those games that neither team has anything to play for but pride. Bills seem to be in a little bit of turmoil here down the stretch, whereas the Cowboys are just trying to keep it together.  Shady McCoy is out for the Bills.  I give the advantage to the cowboys.  Kellen Moore will make his first NFL start, which shouldn't scare anyone, but he's gotta be better than Matt Cassell.  Cowboys win in a shocker 21-17

Bucs -3 vs Bears
Lovie will have his team fired up to beat his old team.  Bucs still playing to get to .500 which would be a great accomplishment.  I actually think the Bears are the better team, but for some reason they just can't figure it out.  I'll take Winston and his boys 24-20

Panthers -7 vs Falcons
I could see the panthers losing this game, but I can't see the falcons winning it.  i'm gonna ride the Cam Newton wagon until I fall off I guess.  My aunt has season tickets to the panthers so it's been insufferable to hear about how great they are.  Nobody has season tickets to the falcons, maybe they should move to LA.  Rumor started.  I think Cam and the boys get it done early and don't fall apart late like they did with the giants.  Panthers 38-21.

Steelers -11.5 vs Ravens
Lots of home dawgs this week.  or maybe just two in a row, I don't know.  That's a lot of points for two divisional rivals who usually play tight close games.  But the Steelers are just that much better right now.  Ravens don't even have a QB.  Maybe Mallet, maybe Flacco, maybe schaub.  who knows.  Steelers were impressive last week against the broncos.  Honestly broncos should have won that game, can't seem to figure out how to move the ball in the 2nd half of games though.  Steelers passing game is pretty frisky, but really it's just AB.  the other two are jokers.  I'll take the steelers 38-10

Jags (off) vs Saints
I'm guessing brees doesn't play.  Why would he.  If you're hurt, just heal up man.  I'll take the young upstarts in Jacksonville.  And the end of an era in New Orleans.  I'm betting no Payton and either no Brees, or a really reduced priced Brees, next year.  Jags win 28-17

Rams +14.5 vs Seahawks
Seahawks have been red hot, like fire.  But don't have a running back. and play against a division opponent with a good enough defense.  I still like the Seahawks to win the game, but the rams and headCase Keenum keep it close enough.  Seahawks 31-17.

Cardinals -4.5 vs Packers
How is this not the SNF game of the week?  I'm guessing this was a game that Fox protected or something.  I'm not believing in the Pack.  While I almost took the packers because of the veteran experience in games like this, and usually a let down when a young team clinches a playoff spot (cards), i'm still believing that the packers really suck, and have been staying afloat with smoke and mirrors for the last 3 weeks.  In the end, where there's smoke, there isn't fire, just mirrors, so i'll take the Cards 31-24

Vikings -5 vs Giants
I guess everyone figured out, you can get into OBJ's head.  What a fucking douche man.  Totally a horrible representation out there last week.  Guess what, now that you've taken him away, the Giants literally have no offense.  Giants can't stop the run, can't stop the pass.  It was a hell of a comeback last week, but the vikings are playing for their playoff lives.  (or have they already clinched, i don't know).  Maybe they'll have already clinched by the time they play though.  I do think they're trying to play up and get to that 5 seed though, so they have to keep winning.  I'd rather play the skins in DC than the Packers again in Lambeau.  Although that would make next week interesting considering it would be a preview of the following week.  or it would make it awful to watch.  Anyway.  I'm taking the vikings 31-17.

Broncos -3 vs Bengals
Broncos might need to be ahead by 40 points at halftime.  Fuck, not sure what happens to them in the second half.  I guess that's a sign of piss poor coaching if you can't make adjustments in the 2nd half, or don't expect the other team to adjust.  Frustrating part is that their defense is rock steady (except for covering Antonio Brown), and all they need from their offense is some continuity in the second half.  Just quit going 3 and out.  Fuck.  Vernon Davis has a huge drop in the last two games that would have kept big drives alive.   Osweiler can't throw the ball 45-50 times and expect to win, not at this stage in his career, so they've got to pound the rock.  Miraculously, they've still got a shot at the #1 seed in the AFC.  All they need to do, is win out, and hope that Belichek is playing possum and throws the game against the jets, and then pats get upset in week 17 against the dolphins....so you're saying there's a chance.  Most likely, this game is for the 2 seed in the AFC.  Although if the broncos lose, they could be in trouble making the playoffs, as discussed earlier.  So in conclusion, AJ McCarron sucks donkey dick.  I'll take the broncos 42-7.  Merry Christmas

El Pad
Wash +3
NE -3
Hou -3.5
KC -11
Indyy +2.5
SF +11
Dal +7
TB -3
Car -7
Pit -10
NO -3
SEA -12
GB +4.5
MIN -7
DEN -3

Saturday, December 19, 2015

Picks

Jets -3 over DAL
Something keeps telling me Dallas is going to win because the Jets need to win. But common sense says there is no way Dallas is going to be able to move the ball enough to win.

MIN -5.5 over Bears
The Bears are not very good, nobody thought they would have the amount of wins they have so it's over. Party over you proved your point, no go quietly into the off-season there are teams that actually need these wins.

JAX -3 over Atl

ooopph. 5-0 to being the underdog vs. the Jaguars. Yikes.

Hou +1 over IND
Just add these two teams to the NFC East

Car -4 over NYG
Cam is gonna destroy the Giants defense. Worse defense I've ever seen the Giants have.

Ten +14 over PATS

Why not.

Buf -2 over WASH
Vegas is sneaky.

Kay Cee -7 over BAL
Don't worry the Chiefs WILL lose soon. Round 1.

SEA -15 over Browns
The way Seattle has been playing I would be ok laying 21

OAK +3 over Green Bay
Love home dogs. Especially a cocky young home dog.

Den +7.5 over STEEL CITY
That's a lot of points to give to a defense that travels. Osweiller will put up points, the Stillirs are terrible in pass defense.

Mia +1.5 over SD
The real interview for Dan Campbell, can he keep the team motivated when all hope is lost. On the road, long trip. Short week.

Cincy -5.5 over SF
Plenty of weapons for two time national champ AJ McCarron.

az -3.5 over PHILLY
19-3 when Palmer is the QB - cool stat

NO -3 over Lions
Wow another Monday night banger.

Wednesday, December 16, 2015

Week 15, you mad bro?

You mad bro is still one of the funniest things to me.  Maybe i'm juvenile.  Probably

I wanted one of those hoverboard things, but now you can't buy them because they all catch on fire or something.  The danger and intrigue makes them more desirable.  I won't get one this year for christmas.  Santa is afraid of fire danger toys i guess

I will say it's very odd getting ready for christmas and it's 70 degrees everyday.  going looking for a christmas tree in shorts and a t-shirt just feels wrong.

Company christmas party tonight.  Time to get wicked smashed.  or not, i've got to drive like 30 miles home afterwards.  In my younger days that wouldn't have scared me off, but i'm not younger anymore.  I will report back with any cool pictures or interesting food offerings.

I tried to watch the GOP debates last night. It's hard, not that it's any worse than the democratic ones either, just watching debates is hard.  It's hard not to laugh at the idiotic ideas.  It's just hard.  So drink whisky and enjoy being alive, that's what I say.

On to the picks....last week I was 9-7 (again), not to shabby, EP started out weak 1-8, but finished strong in the afternoon games and SNF and MNF to finish 7-8.  What could have been a disaster was sorted out. Overall season i'm 101-86-4 (.540) and EP is 90-82-4 (.523).  So overall if you'd have bet based on all of our picks, you'd be in the money.  I take this very seriously, i don't want anyone to lose money.

Bucs +2.5 vs Rams
Sorry Tem.  I don't get the bucs.  How do you not hang 35 points on New Orleans at home?  Especially when there is an opportunity that you could still make the playoffs?  Well, that opportunity is gone now, so now you're just playing for crab legs. I guess they could still finish over .500 which would be quite the accomplishment, so not a bad season.  But the NO loss and the skins loss derailed what could have been.  Oh well.  Rams are a disaster.  Fisher is probably getting fired.  The team is moving to LA.  They don't have a QB.  I really think they aren't that far away from being competitive if they could just get some quality QB play.  Maybe they can trade for Johnny Football, or pick up Jimmy Claussen.  Bucs win the game 21-20, sorry tem

Oh by the way, I did win last week and made the final 4 in my big money fantasy league.  So I've got that going for me.  I'm glad I sat Amari Cooper.  I ended up not taking anyone's advice and played Ryan Mathews, since I know you're all interested.

Jets -3 vs Cowboys
On a saturday night?  I mean it's christmas come early.  Jets have been red hot the last few weeks.  You know that Brandon Marshall has a TD catch in 10 games this year. I know this because he's on my fantasy team...booyah.  He'll probably suck now though when I need to win to get in the money.  Eric Decker has like 9 games with a TD catch.  How about 2 former broncos doing it up nice in New York.  I like this Jets team, they could be sneaky good in the playoffs...but then I remember they have fitzpatrick.  Jets are playing for their playoff lives.  3 teams tied for 2 spots, it's sad that either the Jets, Chiefs, or Steelers won't get in the playoffs, but the Colts, texans or jags will.  Stupid. That's about all I have to say about the cowboys, other than Darren McFadden has been a great pickup in fantasy, but he's going to struggle this week.  Dez might explode after this game.  Like literally his head might just explode with brains and blood going everywhere.  Jets win 31-10.

Vikings -5.5 vs Bears
Vikings have had some extra time to prepare.  The vikings are pretty much locked into the playoffs.  Would have to be a disaster finish to not get a wildcard at this point.  That being said, they still need to keep winning.  If they can keep pace with the seahawks, then they'll get the winner of the NFC least as opposed to having to go to Lambeau.  I liked how they rebounded against the cardinals, even if they didn't get the W, they still kept it close.  Good teams like the vikings don't lose to the bears.  I like the Bears though.  Cutler has actually played pretty well.  It'll suck for him when Gase becomes the head coach of the Colts next year though.  (sorry jug).  Bears really need to overhaul that defense, and I see AP going off again for like 175 yards.  The game earlier this season was close.  But this one won't be.  Vikings win 31-20.

Falcons +3 vs Jags
I know the falcons have been bad lately, but c'mon, dogs to the jags?  You know the Jaguars technically could still make the playoffs?  I heard a stat that the Falcons haven't scored a rushing TD in like 7 straight games.  This all seems like bizarro world.  Matty Ice has thawed and now he's matty water or matty steam.  What's the opposite of having ice water in your veins? like you have shit in your veins, or drano or something.  Maybe he's Matty Drano now.  Either way, I like the Jags next year, but not this year.  Should be a shootout, except the falcons don't score a lot of points.  I don't know, i'm all over the place here.  I'll just say that the falcons finally do score a rushing TD or 3 and win the game 42-41.

Texans (off) vs Colts
TJ Yates vs Charlie Whitehurst.  How did this game not get flexed to SNF?  I mean the winner here has the inside track to the playoffs.  Colts win and they basically clinch the division, one game lead with the tie breakers with 2 to go.  I'm making this prediction assuming Luck doesn't play, which I think is a pretty strong assumption.  You know that the Colts haven't had a game where a back has rushed for over 100 yards since like 2012?  That's a real stat. JJ Watt didn't seem super comfortable with his broken hand.  I mean who would, but at least he played through it like a boss, instead of being a pussy (ahem...Andy Dalton).  Texans defense is the difference in this game.   I don't think that TJ Yates drops 51 on the colts like my man Blake Bortles did, but he'll put up 30, and that'll be enough. (by the way, how smart is Adam Gase to not take the 49ers job last year, and yes, he turned it down, now he could be coaching Andrew Luck next year, as opposed to Blaine Gabbert). Texans win 30-10.

Giants +5.5 vs Panthers
Giants seem to be a thorn in the side of undefeated teams.  Panthers have everything locked up, so motivation could be an issue.  Giants always seem to rise to the occasion here.  Giants beat the broncos in 1998 when they were 13-0.  Giants beat the Bears in 1985 when they were 12-0.  Giants almost beat, and then did beat the patriots when they were 18-0.  Actually if you go back the last 30 years, in almost every season, they've given a team their first loss.  So while none of that has any bearing on this game, it's a fun story to tell.  And I like the Giants.  Although, I do hope Josh Norman shuts down OBJ and keeps him to like one catch of 7 yards.  #fantasyplayoffreasons.  Panthers may win, but it's been coming too easy.  I like the Giants to actually pull off the upset, 24-20. (Sorry EP)

Pats +15.5 vs Titans
This one isn't even fair.  That's a gigantic number, but as I told you last week.  Mariota doesn't play well when he's pressured and against the blitz so far this year.  It hurts the pats to keep losing players some defensive tackle that I haven't heard of got hurt, and LG is out for the season now too.  But the pats are a masheen.  I trust in Belichick that he's gonna destroy a young QB.  Gronk is back-ish.  Pats have the #1 seed right in front of them, so I don't see them letting that slip away again.  Don't see how the pats don't steam-roll for this win.  42-10.

Bills (pick'em) vs Skins
Bills are just an up and down team.  One week they are great, the next they suck.  Last week was the suck week.  Skins to me are still smoke and mirrors, can't figure them out one bit.  They've been pretty good at home though, and Kirk Cousins has made him some money the last few weeks.  But I think Rex will try and confuse him some.  I don't have much else on this game except go Shady McCoy.  Throw it to him and let him run all over the skins.  I think the bills win this one straight up, 17-14.

Chiefs -7.5 vs Ravens
Chiefs are red hot right now.  Ravens are a red hot mess.  I think the seahawks killed the morale of the ravens last week, so I don't see the ravens bouncing back this week.  I'm secretly (or maybe openly) rooting for the Ravens to win this game, but that seems ridiculously unrealistic.  Chiefs offense has seemed to figure it out, unless they're in a driving rain storm.  This is a realistic AFC championship game team now that the bengals are going to go in the tank.  I'll lay the points here and let Alex Smith be the savior, 31-10 chiefs.

Browns +16 vs Seahawks
That number is just too high. I know the seahawks have been murdering fools lately.  But c'mon...that's a ridiculous number.  Seahawks are definitely hot, hottest team in football not named the Panthers.  Rounding into form to make another run.  Johnny Manziel actually can play.  He's not too awful when given the chance.  This is a little tougher game, going on the road against a much better defense, but I still think he can keep it kinda close.  maybe i'm wrong, maybe i'm right.  who knows.  Final score seahawks win but don't cover 35-24.

Packers -3 vs Raiders
I like the raiders, but don't love them.  They had no business winning that game last week against the broncos. Drop in the endzone by DT, and Osweiler missed a wide open Virgil Green in the EZ (threw it about 10 yards over his head).  Both of those convert and the broncos win by 8.  Lowest yardage total to win a game in like 20 years or something.  But i digress.  I feel like the Pack kind of figured things out last week.  They can run the ball and throw it to Randall Cobb, they'll be alright.  This is like a home game for Rodgers too, Northern California kid.  Bet you didn't know that, or you probably did.  I like Amari Cooper to have a big bounce back game, especially without a good CB on the packers.  Overall though, the packers are the better team and should win by a TD.  Pack win 24-17.

Dolphins +1 vs Chargers
Chargers shouldn't be favored against anybody.  The dolphins aren't that bad. Can't believe that the dolphins are in a tie game against the Giants on Monday night, and they only give the ball to lamar miller two times in the second half.  Twice?  seriously.  Anyway, McCoy is getting fired in San Diego.  The chargers are moving to LA (although i did hear a guy here suggest that when the chargers move to LA, the jags will move to San Diego).  You know the chargers have scored only 3 points in 3 of their last 4 games, I know that, and now you know, and I do know that you know that knowing is half the battle. So we've got that going for us.  Chargers could get the #1 pick, it's within their grasp.  Although I'm not sure who you take, apparently some defensive players (according to mcshay's first mock draft), but that's not really San Diego's problem (see the 3 points scored stat).  Anyway, dolphins have more talent and the better team...win the game 24-20.

Bengals -4.5 vs 49ers
AJ McCarron is good enough to beat the 49ers.  I like that he basically just looks to throw it to AJ Green.  There will be a lot of young player mistakes like the 2 INTs he threw last week.  But he was in a tough spot.  I mean, he compared himself to Tom Brady in the post game presser last week, so yeah.  I mean he's got confidence, which is not a great thing in a young QB, he thinks he's better than he is.  Fun stat, an Alabama QB hasn't won a start in like 25 years or something.  HA.  fuck alabama.  But that streak ends this week, because the 49ers are that bad, and the bengals have too much talent everywhere else.  Bengals win this game 31-17.

Broncos +7.5 vs Steelers
This is a pretty high number for the steelers.  That defense that denver has is the real deal.  Will they completely shut down Big Ben?  Probably not, but they haven't given up a 300 yard passing day yet this year.  So there's that.  Believe it or not, the steelers defense isn't as good as the Raiders.  It's true.  True story.  If the broncos can run the ball and protect Osweiler (he can't throw it 51 times a game) they'll at least keep it close.  I'm going with the steelers to win here, but they won't cover.  Steelers 20-17. (and I really need Ben and Antonio Brown to have shitty games for fantasy playoff reasons)

Cardinals -3.5 vs Eagles
Eagles seem to think they've got something going.  rough deal for them.  Cardinals are just the better team, and they're hot (maybe with 2 t's?).  I think the cardinals could win the superbowl this year, that's how good they are.  Eagles suck.  Cards win this game 34-10

Lions +3 vs Saints
Lions 35-31 because nobody cares

Saturday, December 12, 2015

Picks

First my Xmas list.

Still need that taser.
Seriously need some sport socks, think the Korean lady is jacking them
Need like an active coat. Like a ski jacket or something
Kristaps Porzingis jersey
Would love 95 air max's og - neon yella, grey, black
Also would love Jordans, the oreo 5's
Need a sturdy 4 man person tent. Top of the line. Coleman?
Personal speakers for the desk at work or a mini dock for an I-pod (2nd generation)
CTshirts.com - 8 of them blues and whites
A mess of Bourbon, Makers 46, Hudson Baby Bourbon, Woodford Reserve and Russells Reserve single barrel
a case of J.Lohr Cab
Need a Rangers tshirt
hot glue gun
a real samurai sword
12" non stick frying pan, high end
Ninja food processor
Silicone baking sheets (Silkpat)
Cole Haan Pinch Penny Loafer and Cap Toe Oxford

Life talk

my wife wraps most of my kids gifts from santa, is she fucking retarded?
My oven is giving me problems, add that to the xmas list
Trump is walling son
Just made myself a triple decker grilled cheese with bacon......not feeling so well
I guess I will never see my abs again
Wanna grow a beard but everyone has one
and my wife wont touch me when I have it
so forget it
Need a vacation
or a blow job

PICKS

Buf +1 over Philly
Philly's ridiculous win was ridiculous. If they played the Pats 100 times that would be their only win. McCoy is going to shred that defense.

san fran +2 over BROWNS
Gabbert > Manziel - say what

Det -3 over ST LOO
Everyone knows the Rams are a one-dimensional on offense. Easy to stop. I would fire Fisher, 4 years is enough. Never had a wining record. USC should have considered him before locking into whoever that guy is (Clay?)

TAMPA -4.5 over Saints
Winston! Told you that boy can play. Him and Mariota. Both can play. Winston's awareness for his age is ahead of where I thought it would be. They are stacked with weapons too.

Titans +7 over NYJ
Because the Jets never cover. And Mariota is special.

Steelers +2.5 over BENGALS
Pittsburgh is pretty much in must win mode, the Bengals have not played a serious game in at least 2 weeks. Not sure they remember what it's like to get punched in the face. Steelers offense is what they call.. High Powered.

Indy over Jax
Don't care who throws Pagano will figure out how to stop Bortles.

KC -11.5 over Chargers
huge line but worth it. Rivers is wearing down, Chiefs are rolling towards playoffs

BEARS -3.5 over Skins
::blank stare::

CAR -7.5 over Atl
MVP MVP MVP - Matt Ryan is having a shitty year. Does he still get to be called Matty Ice?

Sea -13 over BAL
Seahawks are rolling towards the playoffs and Russ is playing out of his mind. Nothing Baltimore can do. Especially with the QB situation.

Oak +6.5 over DEN
Think off a crushing loss I like Denver but I just have a feeling the Oak defense will give Brock some fits to keep it close enough.....

GB -7.5 over Dal

Would consider giving 10-12 points. So I'm happy with 7.5

Pats -3.5 over HOU
Can't see the Pats losing three in a row. Can't

Giants over FINS

Ugly.





Thursday, December 10, 2015

Week 14 yo

Serial podcast started again today.  Interesting story.  would be interesting to hear if Jug were to listen if it would change his mind on the Bowe Bergdahl story, but only after the whole thing has come out. Anyhoo....

baseball trades and FA signings...maybe the rockies can get Jose Fernandez

Basketball, warriors are 23-0, I guess that makes them the best

Henry will probably win the heisman, but i'm not sure he deserves it more than McCaffery.  But then again, maybe people are making a big deal about McCaffery because he's from denver and a white runningback, so they aren't held to as high of standard/expectation..which seems racist.

Last week's picks....i went 9-7, respectable, and EP went 6-9...loser.  Bringing our season totals to 92-79-4 (.538) for me and 83-74-4 (.528) for him.  I'm gonna finish strong, and EP is going to fade in the last 2 minutes like the Giants.

Vikings +10 vs Cardinals
This is a big line.  I get that the seahawks just destroyed the vikings in Minnesota. It's almost like they didn't know that they playoffs started last week.  I get that if you stop AP then you stop the vikings.  But how often has he been shut down two weeks in a row?   Short week, and Zimmer is pissed because he only got one cheeseburger.   I like the vikes to keep it close enough, cards still win 31-24.

Bills (pick'em) vs Eagles
Shady McCoy is gonna run hard, and you know Rex is going to give him every opportunity to stick it to his old team.  Needs about 150 rushing and 2 TDs #fantasyreasons  Overall, the bills are the better team.  And people are jumping back on the eagles bandwagon, but they aren't going to get 3 return TDs every week.  If they do, they will win, but they won't so they won't.  Throw in the distraction of all the Demarco Murray crap, and this eagles team is going to the shitter.   Bills win 24-17

Browns (pick'em) vs 49ers
Johnny Football.  i don't know, this is the worst game of the season.  it'll have a viewership less than the friends re-runs on nick at nite.  In a situation like this, i'll take the home team.   Maybe the browns can move to LA, browns win 13-10.

Lions (pick'em) vs Rams
Lions have been playing way better the last few weeks.  I blame Jim Bob Cooter.  It will be interesting to see how they react after having their hearts ripped out by Rodgers to Rogers.  But the rams are quitting on jeff fisher.  They don't have a QB, and are so one dimensional on offense it's ridiculous.  I'll take the lions 24-20.

My hands smell like garlic and onions right now

Bucs -3.5 vs Saints
Bucs are riding at tidal wave of emotion right now.  They need to throw it to ASJ like 50 times this weekend #fantasyreasons.  Saints are ok, lost their best player though to IR though.  So now it's just Brees.  they played their supberbowl last week, and lost, so the playoffs ended for them, but are just beginning for the bucs.  The bucs may just be able to slip into the playoffs by winning out. I was completely wrong about winston, kid can play, and as long as he's not raping anyone, he's a good QB.  Sorry Tem.  Bucs win the game 31-18

Jets -7.5 vs Titans
I think that may be too many points, but the one thing the JETS do is blitz.  and the one thing that mariota has trouble with is pressure.  So bad combination of the two.  Marshall should catch a lot of passes and at least 2 TDs #fantasyreasons, Jets win 31-20

Bengals -2.5 vs Steelers
I'm probably rooting for the steelers here.  which means the bengals will win.  Interesting dynamic in the AFC, there are 3 really good teams, and everyone else, so there's a big fight for the first round bye.  Bengals control their own destiny, which is an oxymoron because if it's destiny it's already pre-determined, but semantics.  Bengals score a lot of points, steelers score a lot of points, that won't change, AJ Green needs to have 2 TDs at least #fantasyreasons, Bengals win 41-38

Colts (off) vs Jags
I'm assuming there isn't a line because they aren't sure if Luck is going to play.  I think if he plays they lose.  Jags are a stunner, and need to score a lot of passing TDs #fantasyreasons  but i don't think Luck will play so i'll take the hasselbeck's and the colts win to stay in the playoffs 31-28.

Chargers +11.5 vs Chiefs
This line is stupid.  Chiefs are playing great right now, but also against shitty shitty teams.  The chargers are still as shitty team, and I look forward to the chiefs destroying either the Colts or the Texans in the playoffs, but until then, i'm not laying that many points in a division game.  Chiefs win, 31-28.

Bears -3 vs Redskins
Skins are awful on the road.  Bears are awful at home (1-5? seriously), something's gotta give, and I think getting embarrassed by the 49ers is a bigger deal than losing to matt cassell because your best player decides to run backwards 20 yards and fumble.  Skins still have something to play for because the NFC lEast sucks so bad.  is this the year a team makes the playoffs at 6-10?  I think so.  Bears win 28-17

Panthers -8.5 vs Falcons
Panthers are undefeated at home this year.  Falcons can't get out of their own way in any aspect of the game.  I might think the falcons keep it close, but I might also think that doing crack is a good idea, but then I think...."better not".  I like the panthers in a rout to end any chance of the falcons making the playoffs 31-10.

Seahawks (off) vs Ravens
No idea why this doesn't have a line.  No question the seahawks are going to win.  The better question is will they get a pick six.  I think no, Matt Schaub will not throw a pick 6 this week, going out on a limb.  'Hawks win 35-10.

Raiders +8.5 vs Broncos
The Brock train rolls on, but the broncos don't blow anyone out. The only game that they blew somebody out was the packers on the night they put Mr. B into the ring of fame.  Other than that, it's been mostly a one score game.  Broncos D is stout, and tough and fast and whatever else you want to call it.  I think the broncos still win, but don't cover by 8.5, so they win 24-20.

Packers -7.5 vs Cowboys
I don't know, maybe that's too many points.  There are still a ton of flaws with this Green Bay team, but jesus the cowboys are awful.  You don't just go into Lambeau and win unless you're the lions (or the bears i guess), and the cowboys are no lions (or bears).  McFadden should have a great game though #fantasyreasons.  Pack win 31-17

Patriots -3 vs Texans
This is a more realistic line for the Pats.  I don't think the pats bad luck will continue.  Texans need this win to keep pace with the Colts, but that's not going to happen.  Pats D is really tough, texans O is floppy cock.  So i'm going with the pats.  28-24

Dolphins (pick'em) vs Giants
The "who cares bowl".  giants at least have something to play for, but will lose because they can't hold onto a lead in the last 2 minutes.  (you know they'd be like 10-2 if games were only 58 minutes long, but they're not, so they've got that going for them).  Who cares, dolphins win again 15-13.

Thursday, December 03, 2015

week 13 picks

The season is starting to wind down.  It's the final stretch, the countdown to the playoffs...all that jazz.

MLB hot stove is heating up, players nobody cares about are being signed or traded.  what a great time to be alive.

I know nobody cares, but Grayson Allen is 100% classic Duke guy.  White guy, douche, better than most everybody else, has no career after college.  Great guy to root against.

Steph Curry and the warriors, like whoa.  I usually don't pay attention to basketball until after the NFL season has wrapped, but jeez.  20-0, that's right, 20 and zero.  I'm probably jinxing them right here though, so there's that...sorry tem.  I would say the warriors have a legit shot of breaking the 72 win barrier.  If they haven't lost when Kerr comes back, and then they lose, does Kerr get fired? discuss...coffee talk.

on to the picks.  I had an OK week, while EP was in the shitter.  I needed some shitter weeks from him again, glad to see the old EP back.  I went 8-8 bringing my totals to 83-72-4 (.535) and Tony went 4-9 to drop to 77-65-4 (.542), so now it's a race down the stretch.  I'll have to take this serious from now on.

Packers -3 vs Lions
Lions have been playing better, the packers have been playing worse.  This is probably a dumb choice, but I also think the Lions get too excited about beating a shitty Eagles team and think now they can just show up.  The packers know they basically have to win out, just to get a home playoff game.  Playoffs start today for the pack, and rodgers comes through, double checking his way to 3 TDs.  Pack win 35-24.

Giants +1 vs Jets
I think the Jets are the better team, but the Giants are tough at home.  Oh wait, you tell me they're both at home?  If Revis were playing, i'd take the Jets here, but since he's not (probably avoiding getting lit up by OBJ), the giants are the play.  Playoffs start today for the Giants, if they can't win this game, they'll be one back (and 2 with the tie breaker) with 4 to play...tough.  I'll put my money on Coughlin and Eli.  24-20.

Rams +7 vs Cardinals
No CJ2K hurts the cardinals.  The rams are slightly better at home.  I think the cards can win this game, but the line is too big, if they can't cover 7 points against Blaine Gabbert, they can't cover 7 points against Todd Gurley.  Playoffs start today for the Rams, if they lose, they are out. And they will, Cards win but miss the cover 24-20.

Bucs -1 vs Falcons
Falcons are going in the wrong direction, Matt Ryan looks confused lately.  Everytime I pick the bucs to win, they lose, sorry Tem.  Playoffs start today for both of these teams, if the bucs win, they're right in the wildcard hunt, if the falcons lose, they've got no shot at the playoffs.  I like Jameis here, which is scary, 31-24.

Vikings pick'em vs Seahawks
Seahawks have been garbage on the road this year.  Their secondary is lost.  They really miss Dan Quinn.  No Jimmy Graham, back to trying to run the ball and grind it out.  It's going to be cold, and that means ADP will have a field day.  Seahawks run defense is stout, but ADP will dominate, this is where the playoffs start for both teams, and a loss for the 'hawks is crushing, but ADP owns December.  Vikings in a squeaker 21-20.

Bills -3 vs Texans
Playoffs start here for the bills.  The Texans don't need this win nearly as much, since they're in a fight for their division and still have a game left against the Colts.  Bills basically need to win out to get a wild card.  Rex should have the team fired up, and it will be cold.  I don't like warm weather or indoor teams, on the road in the cold in December, unless they're a really good team, and the Texans are not it.  I'll take the bills here, in grind it out fashion 17-13.

Dolphins -4 vs Ravens
Short week, quick turnaround for the Ravens.  The playoffs start here for both teams, if you lose (oh who am I kidding neither team has a shot) then you're out, win and there is still a glimmer of hope.  Dolphins get a bump from changing OCs again.  Ravens still don't have a QB.  Was anyone surprised that Schaub threw a pick 6 last week, nope, me neither.  I think the fish run the ball and control the clock.  Tannehill makes enough plays and they win 20-14.

Bengals -10.5 vs Browns
Austin Davis?  c'mon man.  The playoffs start for the Bengals now, except they really don't, if they lose, they'll still make the playoffs, but they aren't going to lose this game.  They'll need to win out to get the 2 seed, including a big game against the Broncos in a couple of weeks.  The road gets tough for them starting now, and this is usually where bad Andy starts showing up.   Bengals 38-10

Jaguars +2.5 vs Titans
You know the titans haven't won a home game yet this year.  This should be a shootout, and the playoffs start now for the Jags.  Any hope of getting in and they have to win out, so they need to beat the bad teams when they have them on their schedule.  9-7 will win their division, so go win some games.  Jags win in a shocker 38-35.

Bears -8 vs 49ers
Bears still have a shot at the playoffs, but they'll probably have to win out for the most part.  They might could lose one more game and still get in, but it'll be tough.  10-6 guarantees them a spot.  I like how Foxy has this team playing right now, and I think they stomp this craptastic 49ers team.  '9ers are awful on the road.  Bears and Cutler roll 31-17.

Broncos -4 vs Chargers
Chargers tried the "we're going to fire someone to get the team excited" tactic this week, except they fired their special teams coordinator.  Why, are they not running enough touchbacks back for TDs?  Are they giving up too many special teams touchdowns.  I have no idea.  Broncos will run the ball and control the clock.  the Bears game wasn't as close as the score, the NE game was probably a fluke, but playoffs start now for the broncos.  The chiefs are right behind them, they've got a legit shot at the #1 if not the #2 seed in the playoffs, so get on your horse and ride the brock train, for at least one more week.    Broncos 28-17.

Chiefs -2.5 vs Raiders
I really like the raiders, and this is really a playoff game for them.  If they lose this, they can kiss the postseason good bye.  I think they're ahead of schedule though and getting to 8-8 would be huge for them going into next year.  The chiefs, i hate.  There isn't one player on that team that I like, not one.  I wouldn't fuck them with Meiz's dick.  But you know what, somehow Andy Reid has them figuring this out enough.  They've won 5 in a row which is the longest streak in the NFL (if you don't count the panthers), and seem to be playing really well.  I'll take the chiefs on the road in the Black Hole 31-28.

Saints +7.5 vs Panthers
There is something to be said about the pride of Drew Brees and the saints here.  Panthers are coming off an ass kicking on national TV, have extra time to prepare...etc, but I think the Panthers are one of those teams that needs people to not believe in them.  I think the Saints pull a shocker here, and win the game, breaking the streak, and the champagne pops.  Playoffs start this week for the Saints, and drew brees comes through, 24-20.

Pats -11 vs Eagles
This is more about how awful the eagles are than how good the pats are.  Yeah, i know, Tom Brady is pissed, he's angry, whatever.  They don't have any weapons on offense...boo hoo.  Guess what, the Eagles have given up 45 points in back to back weeks, and neither QB was anywhere near as good as Tom Baby.  The playoffs start today for the Eagles, if they don't win (which they won't) then they don't have a shot of catching the red hot Redskins for the division lead.  So the pats will get even this week 45-17

Steelers (off) vs Colts
Playoffs start today for both teams, but really the steelers.  Because the colts have a shit for brains division.  I think Ben will play.  Which makes this game infinitely more watchable.  Although, I think the steelers win this game in a blowout.  38-17, and the matt hasselback legend dies.

Redskins -4.5 vs Cowboys
The skins are really good at home.  I mean there is no two ways around that.  Kirk Cousins plays like he's Dan Marino when they're home, but like Ryan Leaf on the road.  Cowboys are keeping their playoff options open by not putting Romo on IR.  Well if you're going to win the division, then guess what the playoffs start today, basically the cowboys have to win out, and they won't they are like 0-7 without Romo this year, so why would this be any different.  Skins in a rout 31-10.

EL PAD PICKS

Real quick, mad busy yo.


NYG +2 over NYJ
Az - 4.5 over Rams
Tampa over Falcons
Seattle +1 over VIKES
Texans -3 over BILLS
MIA -3.5 over Bal
CLE +10.5 over Bengals
TEN -2.5 over Jax
SF +8.5 over Bears
Den -3.5 over SD
OAK -2.5 over Cheifs
Car -7 over SAINTS
NE -10.5 over Philly
Colts +7.5 over PIT
WASH -4 over Boys






Sunday, November 29, 2015

picks

Oak -1 over TITANS
Just think Oakland is better.  Throw out the 1pm thing for now.  Going to Minny Soda was a rough one but the Vikings are good.  The Titans aren't any good.  Amari Cooper with a ya huge day.


Buf +5 over KC
The Chiefs at home are tough to go against, especially when they are playing well but Baffalo is a time that can put that crowd on their shoulder like a chip and surprise some people.  I like the Bills in an upset to win. 


INDY -3 over Tampa
Tampa has been surprising but I think the Colts may have found something finally.  What division is worse?  AFC South or NFC East?


Giants -2 over WASH
Skins can jump back in the race with a win here.  Lol.  But the Culliver injury on Thanksgiving has to sting the nostrils.  Imagine how it's Thanksgiving, can't wait to eat grammas yams and pies OH GOD I TORE MY KNEE APART!  Man that sucks.  Plus ELI >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Cousins and you all know this.


Saints +3 over TEXANS
Can honestly see the Texans winning but and it's a minor but, the fact that this is indoors on turf.....close to home (short flight) I think the Saints have a shot here.  Typically the Saints on the road west of the Mississippi on grass are just awful but the elements here favor them and they are better, not sure what Romeo Crennel was able to use to motivate that defense but they are playing a lot better.  Real test today. 


Minny +2.5 over FALCONS
Vikes bounce back, watched Green Bay shit the bed on Thursday helps motivate this team to rise up.  Falcons are trending downward.


St. Louis +9 over CINCY
9?  With Gurley and Aaron Donald on the other side?  This line is blasphemy.


JAX -4.5 over San Diego
Hello OVER46.5!  IF the Chargers can find a WR to dress that can actually play.  Poor Rivers.


NYJ -4 over Miami
I'm a -6 on the confident scale about this pick.  But I can't take Tannyhill in this spot.  Desperate team at home looking at today's game to spring them forward down the stretch. 


Az -9 over SF
Man what a mess left behind by poor management of this franchise.  You think Bill Parcells was easy to get along with?  You think Bob Ross didn't treat his production crew like shit?  I SAID YOU SHOOT THE PRETTY LITTLE TREES UNTIL YOU CAN'T STAND NO MORE SHITBAG!  Successful people are typically assholes.  It's ok, part of life.  Deal with it and shine the gold.  The hedgehog ain't a head coach man.  Cmon.  Shameful what happened in the bay.


Steelers +3.5 over HAWKS
Inconsistent defense/secondary facing a high powered offense.  What's the worst that can happen?  By the way when they are good they are called legion of boom, what about when they are bad? 


New England -2.5 over DEN
Would like to see Denver here knock them off just to hear a week's worth of sportstalk about manning / osweiller controversy but I don't see it.  It will be Brandon LaFell or Brandon Bolden or some jerk we never heard of.  It's the system guys, not the players.


BROWNS -3 over Ravens
No one cares. 





Thursday, November 26, 2015

Thanksgiving day picks

Happy thanksgiving, looking forward to some crazy football and lots of beer today.

Black Friday has lost its luster to me.  Maybe it's because I already have everything I want, but for the most part, the deals just seem stupid anymore.  I'm not going out at 6pm or 8pm tonight to get call of duty for $7 cheaper.  If you don't have a TV by now, you don't deserve one even if it's super cheap.

Last week was a much better week for me, I went 9-5 and moved my record up to 75-64-4.  EP did not have a good week going 3-10, but overall is still better winning percentage wise at 73-56-4.  I'm thankful that I now have more wins again, even if it took me 10 more games.

Eagles +2.5 vs Lions
I don't think the eagles are as bad as they looked last week, and I don't think the lions are that good either.  Lions used to have an advantage playing at home on Thanksgiving day, but now everybody plays on thursdays at some point during the week, so everybody had their thursday prep schedule.  Sanchez will look to atone for his last thanksgiving debacle, so I give them the best chance in winning this game.  They'll take this one 27-24.

Panthers +1 vs Cowboys
In what world is a 10-0 team the underdog against a 3-7 team.  That's just stupid.  I've seen a lot of people taking the cowboys this week, but that's because Romo is back, and they barely beat the dolphins last week.  Panthers have Cam, and a great defense.  Should win this one pretty easily 28-10.

Bears +8.5 vs Packers
Packers at night at home, is a very good play.  I don't think the Bears can win this game, but 8.5 is just too many points.  The Bears have played everyone tight lately, and I like what Cutler has going.  Not sure why Fox moved away from langford last week, but I think he has a big day.  Packers win by a FG 27-24.

Raiders (pick'em) vs Titans 
I'll take the raiders here for no reason other than I think they're due.  Titans are better than their record, but the raiders are the better team.  Should win this one pretty easily.  I like Derek Carr to throw 4 TDs and get the ship headed in the right direction.  Raiders win 34-27.

Bills +7 vs Chiefs
Bills only lost to the Pats by 7 in New England.  So the line setters think the Chiefs are as good as the pats, got it.  This is a stupid line.  The chiefs have been playing better, but against a bunch of shitty teams.  The bills get right and maybe they don't win, but they at least keep it close.   Hell I'll take the bills to win.  24-23.

Bucs +3 vs Colts
Bucs are playing really really well.  The colts should not have won last week, if it wasn't for Matt Ryan and the entire Falcons team imploding, the colts don't win.  Winston has started to really prove he was worth that first pick, and other than the fact you're always afraid he's going to make a big mistake, he's got some really good weapons around him.  Dirk Koetter has done a great job of setting him up for success.  Bucs win 31-24

Giants -2.5 vs Skins
G-men are better than the skins.  That's all i've got.  Giants 27-14.

Texans -3 vs Saints
This is probably wrong, Saints defense will probably be better with Dennis Allen calling the signals, although the raiders defense wasn't much to right home about when he was there.  Texans defense has been playing better, and I said I wouldn't pick the texans again this year, so there's that.  Texans win this one  38-21.

Vikings (pick'em) vs Falcons
I'm off the falcons forever I think.  The vikings are coming of an ass beating, and are a much better team than they showed last week.  They'll get back to feeding the machine, and playing good defense.  The falcons just find new ways to lose every week.  Vikings win 24-21.

Bengals -10 vs Rams
prayers for steadman bailey.  Feel bad for the dude, very lucky he isn't dead.  You can take the kid out of the ghetto, but whatever the rest of that goes.  At some point, you think these millionaires would learn they can't hang with the hood rats anymore.  but i digress, it's not his fault, nobody deserves to get shot in the head, except maybe Aaron Hernandez.    Bengals have been frustrated the last couple weeks, and should get back on track.  Throw it to AJ green when in doubt.  Rams are a mess, and they let their QB finish the game last week when he couldn't even stand up.  Bengals win big at home 42-20.

Jaguars -4 vs Chargers
Chargers are too one dimensional right now.  Jags are playing really well lately.  This one is probably wrong too, but early game, eastern time zone wins out over the jags maybe not being the better team.  Jags win 31-20.

Jets -3 vs Dolphins
Jets have been a huge disappointment the last few weeks.  I don't have a strong feeling either way about this game, so i'll take the home team and lay the points.  Jets win 24-20

Cardinals -11.5 vs 49ers
Cardinals are probably the most impressive team in the NFC right now.  49ers are still starting Blaine Gabbert right?  2 TD win for the cards here, 28-14

Seahawks -3.5 vs Steelers
This is a pretty close game.  rematch of a superbowl.  Seahawks need this game more than the steelers do.  I think home field makes the difference here, it may be a closer game but I think the seahawks win anyway, 24-20.

Patriots -2.5 vs Broncos
I wish this wasn't the case, but I don't trust Osweiler to beat Brady and Belichick.  A normal team, i'd say couldn't overcome losing Edelman, Lewis, and possibly Amendola, but Brady and the pats are not a normal team.  Seems like this game is always in New England, so since its in Denver, the crowd should be raucous.  Pats defense is better than the Bears was last week, and Brady gets rid of the ball quick enough to neutralize the broncos pass rush.  I'll take the Pats 24-20.


Browns -3 vs Ravens
Ravens without flacco and forsett, really?  Browns have won games with McCown, and probably have more talent on offense than the ravens.  The Johnny football era has ended, and so has the Mike Pettine era in cleveland.  I'll take the browns to win big-ish, 28-10.




Friday, November 20, 2015

Picks

Amazing how Black Friday as evolved.  From an innocent way to categorize an especially profitable day in retail to running ridiculous sales a full week before Thanksgiving.  America is the best and the worst at the same time.


Singles Day in China is bigger by the way.


Fucking China


Are there any players in the NFL you miss?   I was thinking with Peyton on his way out, I'm going to miss watching him.  Started to think of other players I miss.  Steve McNair.  Tough dude.  I miss Warren Moon going back to my adolescent days watching with my Dad and Pop Pop.  Randal Cunningham even when he was killing my gmen.  Miss Mike Alstott because he was a wrecking ball.  Miss Easy Ed McCaffery.  Joy watching his son running in Stanford.  Miss Barry.  You know there was only one Barry.  Speaking of the Lions miss the Wayne Fontes firing clock, will they pull it out on Turkey day and save his job?  Enjoyed Willie Roaf Beef!  I can go on and on.


Big boxing match this weekend.


Props to Frank Beamer coaching his last game in Blacksburg this weekend.  Great leader.


I think Brian Windhorst smells like cold cuts.


Oak even over DET
We'll see if the Raiders are for real.  If they can't go on the road and beat the Lions then they are mediocre and not a playoff contender.


Colts +5 over ATL
If Atlanta had a pass rush I'd take them but I think because they don't it doesn't matter how old and not mobile Hassy is.  They keep it close.


Jets -3 over HOU
The Jets have matchups all over the place.  They should beat Houston pretty good.  That d line should be able to dominate up front and I'm sure Bowles will make it rain blitzes.


PHILLY -5.5 over Bucs
I thin Sanchez runs that offense better than Bradtard.


Denver even over BEARS
Cutty has been lights out.  No Ware but I think the Broncos have enough defense to really give that offensive line problems.  And I like Osweiller.  Think he'll be fine and I think they'll be able to open up the playbook a bit and call a more aggressive game.  There are throws Peyton just can't make anymore.


St Loo +2 over RAVENS
Baltimore got robbed but put themselves in that position with what I've been saying all year.  Horrendous secondary.  Once the Rams get their playmakers going the Flacco's won't be able to keep up.


Dallas even over MIAMI
Romo makes all the difference in the world.  Boys get off the schneid.


Skins +8.5 over CAR
The later it gets, the tougher it gets.  Margins become less and less.  Give me those points.  If Kirk Cousins scores and does that Cam dance, the internet will fall apart.


SD +3 over Chiefs
I'm zagging because everyone else is zigging.  Apparentely KC is bout to go on a run straight to a division playoff game because they have an easy schedule and they have been playing well as of late.  One more tidbit, retiring of Tomlinson's jersey at halftime. 


MIN even over Green Bay
Game of the week.  The Packers are really struggling, getting nothing from the RB position leaving it all on Rodgers.  WR's can't seem to get open consistently and the defense is on the field way too long.  Meanwhile Peterson is hitting his stride and that defense is big and nasty.  Changing of the guard.  I believe in purple.  Hope Kodiac130 is watching.


San Fran +13.5 over SEATTLE
It's like the handicappers WANT Seattle to be the Seattle of old at home.  They have been putrid at home.  Wildly inconsistent on defense and even more inconsistent on offense.  That offensive line is a problem.  I don't know how the Niners are going to score points but I think the spread is too high.  Would lay 8-10. 


ARI -4.5 over Bengals
The first flex of the season!  Remember when Carson Palmer quit on the Bengals?  That was fun.  I think the Cardinals secondary might be the best in football.  NS. The Red BB gun is going to struggle.


Buf 8.5 over NE
You think Amendola is a little pissed EVERYONE including Brady is all like well you can't replace a Julian Edelman.  He basically runs the same routes as Edelman.  If you didn't give them a name or number they would look like the same WR.  Maybe Edelman is quicker.  Anyway Rex has one less thing to worry about so he can maybe try and for real cover Gronk.  See what happens from there.  Problem is the Bills need to find out a way to score points.

Wednesday, November 18, 2015

woody the wood picks

I went 5-9 last week and I'm now 66-59-4.  don't listen to me anymore.  EP went 9-4,and is 70-46-4 listen to him.

Craziness all around. The stuff going on in Paris, heightened security at all sporting events, people are blowing up planes again.  People are threatening to blow up planes again.  The Lions are winning in Wisconsin. Tiger is coaching the Ryder cup.  and his blood is giving HIV to Charlie Sheen. Just a great time to be alive.  I'm probably in the minority here, but I think this is a case where genocide is actually justified.  It worked with the nazis (i think), so lets just wipe those fuckers completely off the planet.  Be done with it.  (not the packers and the lions, but i'm ok with all the others)

Also the NY attorney general sent me an email and asked me to cease and desist on DFS advise*.  Other than Langford, most of my advise* was awful anyway.


Jaguars -2.5 vs Titans
I like Blake Bortles.  I like Marcus Mariota.  This could be the best division in football in two years. If the Jags win, and the Colts and Texans lose (both likely), the Jags would suddenly be in 1st place. This is my sneaky favorite team to watch on Sunday Ticket...it's weird. Anyway, I think the Jags are the better team here, this will probably be a shootout, and i'll take the home team.  38-35

Broncos pickem vs Bears 
The Brock Osweiler era begins in Chicago, against John Fox and Adam Gase, and Jay Cutler.  I'm in the "I think he'll be OK" camp for Brock.  He's probably better than most backups.  Worst case scenario, he keeps it close.  They'll run the ball, the defense for the Bears isn't very good, so a good place to get your first start.  I've changed my answer on this one about 4 times now, so i'm going with the team that has the better defense.  In the end, I think the D gets it done.  I mean if Tebow can win games in the NFL, then Osweiler should be able to, right?  Broncos 17-10.

Raiders -1 vs Lions
Raiders are weird, they're good, and they're bad.  The Lions didn't look great against the Packers, but the packers looked awful.  So i'm going with the Raiders here.  I'm hoping the Raiders get back to running the ball, and using Amari Cooper.  I think they have enough this week though, 28-21.

Falcons -5.5 vs Colts
Colts will probably win this game because I can't pick anything right.  The falcons have been awful the last 4 weeks, the Colts had their biggest win of the season, and then a bye.  I like Hasselbeck, but he's like 43 years old.  I think the falcons figure it out 27-20

Jets (off) vs Texans
I doubt Hoyer is going to play, i don't pick the texans in any game anymore, which maybe burns me, but I hate them.  Your trash talk game is very weak, JJ Watt.  The jets have had a couple of bad performances in a row since playing the Pats pretty tough.  It's time they get back to running the rock and blastin fools.  And throw it to Brandon Marshall more #fantasyreasons.  Jets win in a low scoring affair.  15-12 (all field goals).

Eagles -5.5 vs bucs
I like Winston, he's got some moxie.  But it's tough for a young kid to win on the road, especially in philly.  Bradford probably won't play, but I think Sanchez is a very capable backup, and he's been in the system a while now.  Eagles will run the ball, Ryan Mathews actually is the better running back here, but they paid so much for Murray that Chip will keep forcing him the rock.  I think the eagles win this one going away.  31-17.

Rams +1 vs Ravens
Rams huh? Got your asses handed to you at home last week.  Now we're going to start Case Keenum.  Who wasn't awful when playing for the Texans in the past. The Ravens just don't have anything offensively or defensively.  They have a lot of pride, but I think that Gurley runs all over them, and Keenum does enough to win the game for the Rams, and that solid D-line.  Rams win 21-17

Cowboys pickem vs Dolphins
I guess Romo is coming back.  He'll make a difference for this team, he's gotta be better than Cassel or Weeden right?  Doesn't he have the worst directv commercials of all of them.  I mean, his aren't even funny.  Cowboys season is probably over already anyway, and the Dolphins will be after this game.  The fish just don't have it.  Cowboys win 24-23

Panthers -8.5 vs Redskins
Kirk Cousins won't have a perfect QB rating this week, guaranteed.  So you go from playing 7 on 7 to playing a panthers team that you can't complete a pass against.  Cousins will throw a couple of picks, and he always loses when that happens.  Panthers are sneaky good.  Their offense is under the radar, their defense is stout, their dancing is on point.  I'm going to go out on a limb here and say they could be in the NFC championship game.  Panthers win by scoring 4 tds, a FG and a safety and a 2 point conversion, 34-17

Chargers +3 vs Chiefs
I'm probably smoking crack here.  But the chiefs are feeling to good about themselves after beating the Broncos.  The Chargers are coming off a bye, and gotta be feeling the heat.  This is one of those games where I pick whoever is home, and that's the chargers.  31-28

Packers pickem vs Vikings
I sure won't be giving any points for the Pack.  It's gotten embarrassing there.  But their backs are up against the wall now, do you really think A-rodg is going to lose 4 in a row?  Me neither.  The vikings are due for a letdown.  Packers 26-17

Seahawks -13.5 vs 49ers
This is probably too many points, but I saw the Seahawks dismantle this team a couple of weeks ago.  Now they're at home, with their playoff lives hanging in the balance.  And Blaine Gabbert maybe for one week, but not on the road against a usually top notch defense. Last week was more about the cardinals than the seahawks, so i'm taking the home team here in a lot.  24-10.

Bengals +5 vs Cardinals
I probably would have picked this game differently had the cardinals lost and the bengals won last week.  Texans just seem to have Andy Dalton's number.  Bengals are too good to be getting 5 points. Too much talent on that team.  I'm not sure who is going to win, so I won't make a prediction, but i'll take the points.

Patriots -7.5 vs Bills
If this was a stupid line, i'd take the bills, but the Pats are really good at home.  And now they have a week to adjust to the Edelman injury.  I still think the OBJ catch in the endzone was a catch.  They need to just change the rule to say anybody who exhibits control over the football with 2 feet down, it's a catch.  Who cares if you take it to the ground, or if somebody strips you, or you have to make a football move, or any of that shit, just catch it, and it's a catch.  That has nothing to do with this game, but the Giants have a bye and I needed somewhere to bitch about it.  Bills aren't good enough to hang with the Pats this year.  34-20.

Saturday, November 14, 2015

Picks

Det +12 over GREEN BAY
Just too many points




Dal +1 over TB
Dallas's D has been losing these games not shitty back up QB's.




Car -4 over TITANS
Tennessee had the mojo last weekend.  Carolina don't need mojo.




STL -7.5 over Bears
Chicago hangs around but the Rams defense is scary and I bet they like their reputation.




SKINS @ pick em over Saints
I got nothing here.


Miami +7.5 over PHI
Like Lamar Miller being the offense for Miami, Bradford still doesn't look comfortable in this offense


PIT -5.5 over Browns
Don't matter if Big Ben out, Steelers D is playing really well and ranked in top ten.


Jax +4 over BAL
The Jags can spin the rock.  Baltimore's secondary is Jarlsberg.


OAK -2.5 over Vikes
Great game.  Two young up and coming squads.  Like the home team in evenly matched teams when it involves a time zone or two.


NYG +9 over Pats
Either the Gmen find a pass rush with smoke and mirrors or this is a rout.  My heart says they stay close.


DENVER -4.5 over Chiefs
Peyton rebounds, KC is all but done


AZ +2.5 over Hawks
Did Seattle get a new offensive line during the bye?  If not Arizona is better.


Hou +12.5 over BENGALS
Each win will be by less and less.  Winning =  Pressure...... Houston stinks but this is a mess of points.  Hoyer stable and I bet they fixed a thing or two on the defensive side.









Wednesday, November 11, 2015

nose picking

Obviously I'm not very good at this picking stuff anymore.  Two straight weeks with losing records.  Maybe I try and get too cute.  Maybe I don't know anything about football.  Maybe Paulie will let me keep my knees after this week.

Apparently daily fantasy is now illegal in New York, so if you are in New York, don't take any of this advise* and use it in any illegal gambling rings.  I'm not paid for these opinions (nobody would pay me, i tried) so FBI please leave LOV alone.

Unbelievable that i'm now worse in picks than EP.  I'm slipping

Unbelievable that the Broncos imploded twice with stupid penalties in the final minute of a game they could have/should have won.

Unbelievable that the Packers have been stomped two weeks in a row....R-E-L-A-X

Unbelievable that the sponsors for the cowboys haven't put pressure on them, like the ones did last year with the Vikings

On to the picks.  Last week I was 5-8, and overall record for me is 61-50-5 (.549)...keeping Paulie at bay for another week.  EP went 8-4 and after a couple of strong weeks is now 61-42-4 (.592), listen to his picks if you're going to illegally gamble at DraftKings or FanDuel in New York, not mine, i'm no good and not paid for this info or endorse gambling at all.

JETS -2.5 v Bills
This one could go anywhere.  I think that Rex typically gets his ass kicked when he starts running his mouth and doing stupid things, so that's why I pick the Jets, plus they're at home.  And the bills are a little banged up, and Revis OWNS Sammy Watkins.  Jets offense is a stinkfest right now, Bilal Powell might be your DFS play this week in this game, or Karlos Williams on the cheap.   Jets win 24-20

Packers -13 v Lions
How about a get right game for the pack?  How come the only team that fired a coach and hasn't seen improvement is the Lions?  Everyone else played better for at least a week.  Maybe with the bye last week, Jim Bob has created some new coolness.  DFS play here is Jimmy Starks, he's taken over the lead role for the packers, Lacy is hurt, and they should be ahead by 3 TDs by the middle of the 2nd quarter and can just run it the entire 2nd half.  Plus the lions run defense blows.  Pack win this one going away 35-13.

Bucs -1 v Cowboys
Not many games this year where the Bucs have been favored.  Not many games this year where the Bucs have the edge at QB.  My DFS play here is run DMC, if he's cheap enough.  Since taking over the starting spot, he's averaging 111 yards rushing per game, plus he's good for a few catches as well.  Jameis Winston might not be a bad DFS play either, he's quietly not thrown an interception in 4 straight games, and he hasn't raped anyone, stolen any crablegs, or yelled cunt in public all season, so that's a win.  I'm taking the bucs here 35-31.

Panthers -5.5 v Titans
Titans had their fun last week.  Panthers defense is about a google times better than the Saints though.  Google is a number, look it up, although i think it's spelt googol or something, but we're not about spelling here, just learnin. DFS pick here is Panthers defense.  Might be spendy, but they're gonna have a return or defensive TD this week.  Count on it, put it in stone.  Panthers should win easily and move to 9-0, bye* the score of 31-17.

Bears +7.5 v Rams
Rams defense is tough at home.  And they have Jim Brown as their running back.  he'd be a good DFS pick, but I can't find Jim Brown in the rosters, so whatever.  Bears have kept every game close.  Cutler doesn't look lost too much, sometimes, but not too much.  He makes sure and throw picks and bad decisions early so they can still catchup later in the game.  DFS pick here is Jeremy Langford (not sure if any of that name is right), but he looked great against a crappy chargers team, and I bet he's cheap.  If this rams pass rush gets going, you'll see a lot of dump off and screens to langford, and he probably marks the end of Matt Forte in Chicago.  he's getting wally pipped.  Rams probably win, but not by a lot, Rams 24-21.  (this is one where I get too cute and think i'm so smart, you should probably pick the other way)

Saints (pick'em) v Redskins
I'll take the team with the better QB because this is going to be a shootout.  I'm probably wrong on this one.  DFS says to pick Willie Snead, but he's too popular, Ben Watson is a good choice here.  The Saints have been using the TE, and figuring out how to live without Jimmy Graham.  Both defenses suck, and Drew Brees seems to have gotten some of his mojo back, so we shall see.  Saints win 42-41.

Dolphins (+7) v Eagles
I don't think the eagles have only won two games by 7 points or more (giants and saints and cowboys) editor's note: that's three.  blue's note: I said I don't think they've only won 2 games, so I was right.  Anyway, Dolphins front 7 will demolish the shitty blocking schemes that the eagles have going for them.  Not sure that the fish* have enough to win this game, but shouldn't be 7 point dogs.  DFS sneaky pick here is Ryan Mathews.  It's a gamble, I know, but then that's why it's illegal in New York.  Dolphins keep it close and win on a hail mary by tannehill to Mike Wallace, 35-31.  (I know mike wallace isn't on the team anymore, just replace that name with jarvis landry)

Browns +4.5 v Steelers
I've now picked 4 straight road teams, all unfavored.  This is why I suck.  I can't reasonably pick Landry Jones, and Deangelo Williams.  I just can't.  Even if they make me use Johnny Football this week, I just can't pick the steelers to win.  It's not possible.  Steelers are goodish at home.  Antonio Bryant is unhuman, not like a zombie, but like an alien.  are zombies considered human?  I mean maybe, but there could be zombie other species too right?  anyway.  DFS pick here is nobody, because this game licks balls.  If you're using somebody from this game it should only be Barnidge, and only if McCown is playing.  Browns win 41-10 (does the score really matter?)

Ravens -5.5 v Jaguars
Ravens coming out of the bye, they're about to reel off 8 straight wins and make the playoffs at 10-6, move on and win the superbowl.  book your tickets to Santa Clara now Flacco.  From a DFS perspective, I like Blake Bortles.  The guy puts up numbers.  Especially if you can get in a league where you don't get negative points for turnovers.  But he runs for more yards than you'd expect and throws for a lot and for TDs.  He's maybe a top 5 fantasy QB this year...i don't know, but it sounds good.  Ravens run the ball, control the clock, and start their 8 game streak here.  42-35

Raiders -3 v Vikings
Consider me a believer in the Raiders.  I'm not a believer in the Vikings.  I'm probably wrong on both accounts, but damn if the raiders haven't been impressive, maybe it's just that they're impressive because everyone thought they would suck, i don't know.  Is teddy ballgame playing?  Dude got knocked out cold, if the concussion protocol allows for him to play this week, well he should just apply for his payment from the NFL's class action lawsuit.  DFS play, if teddy ballgame plays, then lets got with Stefon Diggs.  If he doesn't, you can't go wrong with Michael Crabtree.  Teams are rolling coverages like crazy to try and contain Amari Cooper, and leaving the crabapple open a lot.  Old man still has a little left in the tank.

Patriots -8.5 v Giants
This game, I swear.  I want to pick the Giant so badly.  So so badly, but I can't.  There just isn't a reason other than "eli owns tom brady" or something to that effect.  "coughlin eats belichik's lunch" or some other stupid thing that doesn't make any sense.  Pats are gigantic, enormous chips on their shoulder for this game.  They won't sleep through this one, no way.  DFS play is probably LG Blount, but only because i'm going to sit him this week.  Dion Lewis gone for the season means LG gets a few more looks, but if the Pats determine it's a passing week (and why wouldn't you, did you see what Drew Brees did), then LG is maybe a 32 yards rushing guy.  I mean you could go OBJ or Gronk, but what fun is that, anyone can pick those guys.  In the end the pats have too much here.  49-7.

Broncos -5.5 v Chiefs
Chiefs coming off a bye after their trip to London.  Broncos coming off a stinkfest in Indy where they did everything possible to shoot themselves in the eye.  Broncos are the better team, Manning will break a couple of records for the home crowd this week, as opposed to the home crowd last week.  Broncos defense will be pissed, and the chefs still have Alex Smith, and no Jamaal Charles.  DFS pick here is Travis Kelce maybe.  I don't know, all the options in this game suck.  Broncos win 39-21

Cardinals +3 v Seahawks
Can't believe the seahawks are favored here.  Cardinals won in Seattle last year.  That might not be right, but i'm not looking it up.  They're the better team, the faster team.  The stronger team, the better team.  DFS Chris Johnson.  I'm running out of steam.  Cards win 31-17

Bengals -12 v Texans
Outside of the Patriots, most impressive team i've seen all year.  Also said I wasn't picking the Texans for the rest of the year.  I think this is the week Jeremy Hill gets it going, and rushes for about 150 yards, making him my DFS pick.  Bengals win in a blowout on Monday night, in all orange, or all black, or whatever they wear.  45-14.

On a side note, i've never played daily fantasy and have no idea how it works, so with all recommendations, it's buyer beware, almost like it's gambling (which is illegal in New York).

Friday, November 06, 2015

Picks

I like to dunk my kids leftover chicken nuggets in siracha.


and drink beers with that.


bought a BJ's sized bag of Pierogies and have been crushing them


pretty soon I wont be able to ride a motorbike


CAR +3 over Green Bay
I went back and forth on this but ultimately being underdogs at 7-0 is the chipiest chip on the Panthers shoulders who already had a thousand chips on them.  Does that make any sense?  Maybe not but I am legend.  Green Bay is not getting open.  Give home dog getting disrespected with a good defense any day of the week.


NE -15 over Wash
This is the part of the program where the Pats just whitewash everyone.


Ten +9 over SAINTS
New coach mojo.  Extremely bitter on line #2 for Matt Leinart! 


BUFF -2.5 over Miami
This usually plays out to the home and away series split.  Buffalo is home and gets some T-Mobile juice back.  I am worried Rex is looking ahead to Thursday night but think the crowd is that much of an advantage.  Even with Miami's time to prepare.


MINNY -1.5 over Rams
They are billing this as the Old AP vs. the New AP.  I wonder if Gurley knocks his kid around with tree branches?  Norv surprises everyone and leans on the Teddy to get it done.  Tem mentioned Whizzinator being one of those over his head coaches, like he's a great coordinator but not a good HC.  Agree, hundreds like this. I put Norv in that boat.  He's a hell of a play caller.


Jax +9 over JETS
NYJ shouldn't be giving any team that many points.  Especially after just getting smoked.


PIT -4 over Oak
Too young the Raiders to go on the road and get that 1pm victory.  The Steelers defense is coming around and they know how to play without Bell already.


Giants -2.5 over TAMPA
Think the defense bounces back, maybe get a lift from Jason Pierre Claw.  Also I sense the offense is hot, I called it last week.  I think it continues.  Even without Cruz


SF +7.5 over Falcons
Atlanta sucks.  Fuck them.  Fools gold ass niggas.


Manning -5 over COLTS
When is Chuckstrong getting canned?!!!!  With a record to break in front of the team he carried for years this is such an easy call here.  Throw in the fact the Denver D will harass Luck into more shitty decisions I don't think there is a chance in hell Denver doesn't win by at least a TD


DALLAS -3 over Eagles
I think it ends here.  Sadly.  Might as well be vs. Eagles though.  Keep this division shitty boys.  Cassel third week, defense is coming together a bit and Dez fully participating.  I think they should run some wildcat too with DMC.


CHARGERS -4 over Bears
Jeez what a shitty game.  Gruden will slob hard over Rivers.  No Keenan Allen which destroyed my fantasy team. 

Thursday, November 05, 2015

blue's picks a pack of pickled peppers picks

This west coast thing gets me everytime.  By the time I get to work, it's like lunchtime on the least coast.  Also sports are usually over before prime time shows come on here, which is alright by me.

On to the picks...I finally got a thursday night game right, then proceeded to vomit all over the rest of my picks.  I finished the week at 5-7-2, where as EP was 7-4-1, so i'm a little bit angry over here.  I'm now 56-42-5 (.571), still in the money, but not nearly as good as I used to be.  EP is 53-38-4 (.582), so he's ahead of me by percentage points.  But not hockey points, I would be winning in hockey.

Browns +11 vs Bengals
Another Thursday night game i'll get wrong probably.  Never know with Johnny football..divisional foes. I thought i heard somewhere that the Browns have actually won 3 of the last 5 games against the Bengals.  That may or may not be true.  Bottom line, too many points for a team that only scored 16 total last week against a very average Steelers defense. Browns have been close in pretty much every game, that may be a lie, I don't know.  I'm taking the Browns to cover, but Bengals to win 24-17.

Packers -2.5 vs Panthers
This is a tough game to pick.  Panthers were lucky to pull out the win after just about choking it away to the Colts.  I still think the Panthers are a great defense, and then all smoke and mirrors on offense.  The Pack got humiliated on national TV, and are again, a road favorite to an undefeated team.  I think the Packers play pissed off this week, and win a game that could be pivotal into who gets home field throughout the playoffs.  If they lose this game, no chance they'll have home field all the way through.  I'm taking the packers here, in a close one, 24-21.

Redskins +15 vs Patriots
15 seems like a lot of points.  The redskins get paid too.  I'll probably regret this one on Monday, but I think they can keep it closer than 2 TDs.  Pats defense isn't really that good.  Pats will win 34-20.

Titans +9.5 vs Saints
Went back and forth on this one.  Not sure firing Whisenhunt was the right move, but I don't know what goes on in Tennessee.  I mean, sure he's lost a lot of games, but he had Zach Mettenberger for 8 of those games, is that a fair assessment?  Anyway, this line is too high because of the shootout that the saints had last week.  Drew Brees is back, right?  Or maybe the Giants just suck. Mariota should be back, the titans will run the ball this week, and then throw it too. They'll use that new coach mojo to at least keep it close, probably lose. Saints win 34-30 because they are at home.

 Bills -3 vs Dolphins
This one I don't know.  I want to take the dolphins because the bills are only 1-3 at home, and haven't looked good in weeks.  But they have Tyrod Taylor back, and all their weapons on offense are back.  Dolphins got smashed by the Pats last week, and are a good enough team.  This is an elimination game...the loser has no shot at the playoffs, and I think the dolphins when they get behind, have no chance.  I'm taking the Bills here 24-20.

Familia just blew another save

Rams +2.5 vs Vikings
Is it just me, or does Teddy Bridgewater wear the biggest gloves in the world?  I know he has small hands, or at least that's what they said at the combine, so I get wearing a glove for better grip.  But Peyton Manning wears a glove, and it's like a Neoprene reciever type glove.  Bridgewater's glove looks like a ski glove, big and bulky and white. Maybe it's just me...I'm taking the new ADP (Todd Gurley) in this game over the old ADP.  Rams will run the ball and play good defense.  These are two extremely similar teams, but I think the Rams D is just a little bit better.  Rams win a close one 24-23.

Jets (no line) vs Jaguars
I'm guessing there isn't a line yet because nobody is sure who the JETS QB is going to be.  Either way, they've lost 2 straight and are ready to get some ass kicking going.  They get to play another young up and coming QB this week, but it was the running game that killed them against the Raiders.  Jets acted like they could just show up last week and win the game.   Bortles has gotten a lot better, but the JETS secondary will be too tough.   I'm taking the Jets here in a shootout 38-31

Steelers -4.5 vs Raiders
Raiders have been really good the last few weeks.  If the playoffs started today (thank god they don't) the Raiders would be the 5 seed in the AFC playoffs.  The Steelers backs are against the wall right now on the outside looking in, and they lost their stud.  But De'Angelo Williams was good enough in the first two weeks for them, he should be a good replacement for Leveon Bell, and having Ben Roethlisberger back helps a ton too.  Would not shock me if the Raiders went into Heinz field and won the game, but i'm taking the Steelers here 31-24.

Bucs +2.5 vs Giants
Sorry Tem.  The buccaneers have slowly been getting better.  If you take away the monumental collapse against the redskins, they'd actually have a winning record.  Apparently Jameis hasn't turned it over the last couple of weeks.  Doug Martin is looking like a superstar again.  The Giants are an enigma.  I can't trust them at this point.  They haven't been good on the road, their defense is awful, and they don't have a running game.  By the way, hey saints, you do know that Odell Beckham is on the giants right?  It seems like they forgot he was on the team, so they didn't cover him in the redzone at all last week.  cost my fantasy team a win, stupid fucking saints.  #fantasyreasons  I'll take the Bucs to win outright at home 31-28.

Falcons -7.5 vs 49ers
What a mess.  Blaine Gabbert is your solution?  Falcons haven't looked good the last 4 weeks, but this is a get right game against a team in utter turmoil.  I doubt Tomsula gets fired this year, but he should.  Never should have been their head coach to begin with.  Didn't they just give Kaepernick a big contract?  This is an organization in total disarray.  (spell check tried to change disarray to dispensary, not even close spell check).  I'm taking the team with an actual NFL quarterback playing this weekend.  Rams in a blowout 34-10.

This just in, the royals scored again

Colts +5.5 vs Broncos
Ok, this might be a reverse jinx game.  I see it as a trap game for the Broncos though.  The Colts are reeling and absolutely need a win.  Broncos are riding high.  They have lost their last 5 in Indianapolis.  Two things in the broncos favor in this game though, a) they still remember getting their asses handed to them in the playoffs by the Colts last year and b) that defense should get after Andrew Luck, and he's hurt and hasn't been good against pressure (see buffalo game, week 1).  I think the Broncos win this game, but the colts make a late 4th quarter charge to make it interesting.  Side note: Manning can break Favre's all-time passing yards record, and all-time wins record this week.  If he breaks those records, i'd imagine the fans in Indy giving him a standing ovation.  They should, he's a colt for life. He didn't choose to leave, they kicked his ass to the curb.  Broncos win this game 24-20.

Eagles -2.5 vs Cowboys
Matt Cassel, need I say more?

Chargers -4 vs Bears
Both these teams are better than their records.  Bears won't have Forte, which is a huge deal for them.  Puts all the pressure on Cutler and I don't like that.  If Forte were healthy, i'd take the Bears in this game.  I think the Chargers players have been affected by the talk about moving to LA.  I don't think they want to move to LA, LA sucks.  I think it's been a distraction all year, even if they say it isn't.  Phylis Rivers' wife just had their 9th kid.  seriously.  They now have a large enough family to put together a full offense.  I can't imagine having 9 kids, even if I was a millionaire, it sounds awful, and I love kids.  Anyway, i digress.  Chargers win this game 34-24.

Go Royals

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