Friday, September 05, 2008

El Pad's Weekly Betting Forum

Welcome kids. The '08 season is upon us. Joy to the world. Allow me to re-introduce myself. I am El Padrino and I am a degenerate gambler. I started wagering on sports when I was 16 years old. Which means I have been actively gambling on sports for 12 years now. I've also held my own book for a small while, really it was just being a runner or a middle man but still, it counts and it's going on the resume. I had 7 accounts, they all paid or got paid from me and I got a small % of the losses if they were over a certain amount. It worked out well. The Book always wins.

Beginner's luck hooked me at first but when that wore off (and it did rather quickly) I became a student of the game. Stats, home/away records, coaches, ref's, weather reports, ATS records, and last but not least giant gonads. Not to mention I am a tremendous fan of the National Football League.

While most of my betting expertise is with football, college included, I have also wagered on NBA and college basketball, baseball, boxing, hockey, the ponies, CFL, NFL Europe, Arena Football, Slamball (I heard they are bringing that back by the way), and The Oscars. From now til February 1st of 2009, each week you will get my expert picks, analysis and general commentary on wagering plays for that weekend. It might not always be the same number of picks but with money amounts given with each pick, it's a surefire way to collect cash on a weekly basis.

Format is as follows.

Picks in BOLD, home teams in ITALIC. Money attached to the picks will go right after the synopsis of the pick. Weekly records will be kept at the bottom of the page and given side by side by the money earned or lost.

Week 1 poses alot of problems for bettors. Mostly, you can predict how a team is going to finish but can never really tell how they will fare in their first game. For all we know KC is a little better then we think and here we are giving 17 points away like it's a tax rebate. The Saints appear to be a lock but Gustav reminded us that 3 years ago some bitch named Katrina strapped on a 8 pound ding dong and porked the Saints mercifully. Who knows if they are distracted now? There is also 9 Quarterbacks making their NFL season opener debut. Week 1 is rough, but this is why I'm here. Onto the picks.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Locks :"Put it in the box with Mike Lowery's mama's titties and the word flaccid lock of the week"

Reference:
Mike Lowery: "Ok look, we're a partnership, but we're a partnership with boundaries. We got a new rule. From now on you can't say the word flaccid to me. This is our little ?boundary box?. We're gonna take the word flaccid and put it in there with my mom's titties and your erection problem and we gonna close this box and we gonna throw this bitch in the ocean. And the only way that you can get to this box is you gotta be motherfuckin' Jacques Cousteau. "


Detroit Lions -3 over the Atlanta Falcons
Sorry to pick on the Falcons here but they have a rookie coach and a rookie QB. Jon Kitna is the greatest QB no one knows about (stat wise) and the fans are not even convinced that the Falcons are headed in the right direction. They can't even sell out the home opener. Detroit started out 6-2 last year before floundering down the stretch. (Straight Bet : $250)



New Orleans Saints -3 over Tampa Bay Bucs
Distractions? What distractions? Just another Hurricane, which seemed destined to rip a hole in the Superdome again. But it came and went. And now the Saints get their opener at home the way it should be. Under normal circumstances. Listen this offense is legit. Tampa matches up well with them in the secondary, I'll give you that but The Saints at home just feel right. It just does. The offensive line is good, I don't see Tampa getting much pressure on Drew Bree's mole or Drew Brees himself. Saints cover the 3 and start their division crown run. (Straight Bet: $150)

Arizona @ San Francisco OVER 41 Points
The play is the over. Simple and easy. Check the bottom screen or top screen for score updates and take pride in the fact that every time the score changes you are closer to a new pair of shoes. This "rivalry" goes over early and often. Some numbers. Last 9 meetings the over is 7-2, 3 of those times the score added up to be in the 60's. In general the OVER is 25-9 in Arizona's last 34 games vs. NFC opponents. The OVER is also 38-14 in Arizona's last 52 Road games. These are are not only trends. They are godsends. And if it loses, chances are the re-match in Arizona will hit. (Straight Bet: $150)



Seattle @ Buffalo UNDER 39 Points
Buffalo (even) over Seattle
Both defenses will be flying around. Buffalo starts Trent Edwards with a power running game while Seattle has good ol' reliable Hasselbeck but with not so much of a running game. Couple that with Matt's receivers all pretty much dead I expect points to be at a premium in this contest. Buffalo sports a nice trend in home September games. Under is 11-3. Seattle's September games run a similar trend. 11-4-1. I also like Buffalo to win, there is no line meaning it's even so all you need is a home victory. Orchard Park usually rocks in September and this is a tough first game for Seattle. (Reverse: Buffalo and the Under, $25 reverse. Lose $50 is both lose, win $100 if both win. In the case of a split, you pay $25)



Dolphins +3.5 over NYJ
I think Pennington taking the helm for Miami after being there for so long is going to hurt the Jets this week. He knows just about every nook and cranny of that team. I imagine he'll be able to direct that offense efficiently enough to squeak out a win. In a game like this I would focus on Time of Possession, something I think Chad does well. A couple of 8 minute drives may sap all the energy that Jet defense has on a blazing hot day in Miami. Upset. Farve is not acclimated to this team yet. (Straight Bet: $50)


Oklahoma -22 over Cincinatti
No words necessary. OK is a powerhouse.
(Straight Bet: $100)


As far as last night's game. The way it started it seemed like the Giants would roll by 30. But the O just settled for FG's. The defense played well, again. Tuck is going to be a beast. Jason Campbell still can't read a defense. I don't even know if he can read a whitewater rafting pamphlet. Zorn looked like Henry Winkler in Waterboy before he started imagining the other coach as a poodle. Good win, division win some improvements obviously still need to be made. Laron Landry meet Brandon Jacobs. O, O, O my god did you see him get runeth over? Straight trucked him. That was beautiful. Zeke/Spiff your names and pics will be up in the first couple of comments.

Commence.

905 comments:

1 – 200 of 905   Newer›   Newest»
El Padrino said...

zeke your pic

your name is :

"pasthword is nipplessss"

is that SFW?

if not,

"my bare chest > J Campbell"

El Padrino said...

spiff your pic

Lost>>>>>>>>>>>>>

El Padrino said...

great hire by snyder

gonna be a long year guys, at least Taylor looked great

El Padrino said...

leavign at 4 today and am off for the next two weeks

fucking suite.

El Padrino said...

great start to the first football friday

El Padrino said...

pathetic

El Padrino said...

Vandy shitted on the cocks

Jugdish said...

I think I just saw some tumbleweed blow through here.

El Padrino said...

must be a joke
or it is a joke

Jugdish said...

wings + beer = potent gas the next day

Jugdish said...

the tumbleweed comment? means this place is like a ghost town

El Padrino said...

no, this place is a joke

i know what tumbleweeds are silly

El Padrino said...

i had alot of wings too, as well as beer

El Padrino said...

destruction

Jugdish said...

Don't mess with Texas

El Padrino said...

"Meanwhile, offensive wunderkind Jim Zorn employed his full arsenal of runs up the gut and seven-yard out routes to make the Redskins offense look as anemic as possible. Basically it’s just like Joe Gibbs team with fewer wasted timeouts. Enjoy your season, Washington."


couldn't have said it better myself

El Padrino said...

streaker gets tackled but the fans got his back

Jugdish said...

I am blocked at youtube at work...sucks

El Padrino said...

denney green owns, "they are who we thought they were"

Jugdish said...

I need to trademark some phrases

Jugdish said...

I wonder if it is too late to trademark Ocho Cinco

Tyler said...

"I don't even know if he can read a whitewater rafting pamphlet."

This made me chortle.

Tyler said...

IT'S FRIIIIIIIIIDAAAAAAAY!

tem said...

i'm gonna trademark tem.

tem said...

i had a headache this morning.

came in at 10am.

tem said...

good picks, except the saints won't win and the bearcats will keep it closer than 22.

tem said...

london fletcher had a lot points against me last night.

fucker.

tem said...

by the by i hate having patriots on my team because they are always listed as questionable.

Tyler said...

The Redskins are who we thought they were.

Jugdish said...

You owe Denny Green 15 bucks for saying that.

El Padrino said...

That's right.

Jugdish said...

I just bought www.ochocinco.com and www.ochocinco.net.

I will sell them both to Chad Javon Ocho Cinco for $85 a piece.

El Padrino said...

If Ray Rice starts, would any of you play him over LenDale White or Donald Driver?

Dikembe Meiztombo said...

Way to go jug!

El Padrino said...

jug is wise

Dikembe Meiztombo said...

No. Driver is the play.

Dikembe Meiztombo said...

BTW, "Katrina strapped on a 8 pound ding dong and porked the Saints mercifully."





HDH

El Padrino said...

i try

Dikembe Meiztombo said...

Where is everybody?

El Padrino said...

i have no idea

Lost >>>>>>>>>>>>> said...

the ghost of gibbs possessed zorn

Lost >>>>>>>>>>>>> said...

EP the > symbol doesnt work in the name

Jugdish said...

That's not gonna work

El Padrino said...

chocolate strawberr lyrics

El Padrino said...

it used to work

just use

dazed and confused then

Keith S said...

"Oklahoma -22 over Cincinatti"

No chance

Keith S said...

"Where is everybody?"

Sleeping off last night's explosion

Keith S said...

Thanks for noticing

dazed and confused said...

fuckers

dazed and confused said...

the treasure is all ours

dazed and confused said...

arrrrrrrrrr

Dikembe Meiztombo said...

explosion?

tem said...

hungry. why does el pad get 2 weeks off in a row?

dazed and confused said...

3 man wrecking crew

dazed and confused said...

deke, did you forget the s

tem said...

explosion?

romantic explosion?

Keith S said...

"why does el pad get 2 weeks off in a row?"

NYC metro area workers get 2 weeks off for 9/11

Keith S said...

"romantic explosion?"

Almost

El Padrino said...

"hungry. why does el pad get 2 weeks off in a row?"

bank policy
mandatory time away rule

i guess they check to see if your ripping off the compnay

Jugdish said...

Tonight I am going here to see this guy.

dazed and confused said...

still hilarity

El Padrino said...

Zorn'ed

El Padrino said...

"No chance"

really
cincy can hang with the Sooners?

H said...

treasure is safe

El Padrino said...

jug goes places

Keith S said...

"cincy can hang with the Sooners?"

Cincy's D will keep Oklahoma under 40 and they'll score 20

Jugdish said...

Saturday I am going here and after that here.

Keith S said...

Cincy is too good of a team to be giving 22 pts

Dikembe Meiztombo said...

Holy shit. I went to bed way too early last night.

dazed and confused said...

my stomach is back down to normal size

Keith S said...

"the treasure is all ours"

I just realized what you meant by this.

El Padrino said...

"Cincy is too good of a team to be giving 22 pts"

getting, to be getting 22 points

H said...

wink, wink

Keith S said...

Yes, getting.

dazed and confused said...

burress is ridiculous, he bobbled 50% of his catches last night but didnt drop any

El Padrino said...

he was money
and got paid

Keith S said...

Yeah, he bobbled no less than half of the passes thrown to him

dazed and confused said...

skins D did alright considering the line/2 LBs/the corners/1 safety all suck. london fletcher is an animal though, something like 17 tackles

isiah thomas said...

nice names, pic is blocked.

crazy tps still, you want a couple half assed days? I can serve a full deal on Wednesday.

I had "Jim Zorn's Rocket Trail" picked out for you.

Hello Bill Cowher!

dazed and confused said...

that moss catch on the ground could have been a TD if the refs let them play then reviewed it later, of course they made the mistake of stopping the play and giving no chance, ass holes

Dikembe Meiztombo said...

I'm gonna go whack it to the chick that H couldn't decide on.



Jeezaloo

Keith S said...

"I'm gonna go whack it to the chick that H couldn't decide on. "

Awesome

dazed and confused said...

deke is robin hood, fucker

H said...

"I'm gonna go whack it to the chick that H couldn't decide on."

Deke played ketchup

El Padrino said...

up to you

if your pic is blocked switch with spiff then

see if spiff's pic is blocked

isiah thomas said...

read spiffg's nfl preview....

the Jets are his "sleeper"?

that was a meizillian type effort from him.

El Padrino said...

"that moss catch on the ground could have been a TD if the refs let them play then reviewed it later, of course they made the mistake of stopping the play and giving no chance, ass holes"

you'd have 3 points if it weren't for that phantom 15yard facemask penalty that wasn't

Keith S said...

Aren't all facemask penalties 15 yards now? Irregardless of the severity?

Keith S said...

I know they changed the rule for college, not sure if it's the same in the NFL

Dikembe Meiztombo said...

Keith & H went back to highschool and now have something that only they know about.

Dikembe Meiztombo said...

Zeke, email me. this bitch is comin' Priority Mail.

Dikembe Meiztombo said...

All NFL facemasks are 15yds.

dazed and confused said...

"you'd have 3 points if it weren't for that phantom 15yard facemask penalty that wasn't"

theres plenty plenty of missed or bad penalty calls every game, like brandon jacobs slapping washington, or kendall headbutting pierce were both bad non calls, but this was a play being completely killed when it should have gone to review after letting them play

Keith S said...

"Keith & H went back to highschool and now have something that only they know about."

You and spiff know about it

H said...

Deek, so are you giving me the green light too?

Keith S said...

aitch was just showing off a hot chick he says he knows

Jugdish said...

"Aren't all facemask penalties 15 yards now? Irregardless of the severity?"

From what I heard if there is incidental contact, or what used to be considered the 5 yard variety...that should be a no call.

El Padrino said...

true that
i think he was down though

you cant advance a bobble i thought

Dikembe Meiztombo said...

"You and spiff know about it"

that's all? I gathered otherwise.

Jugdish said...

Joba?

Dikembe Meiztombo said...

EP, I need a Mets sweep this weekend.

H said...

now I'm confused

Keith S said...

"EP, I need a Mets sweep this weekend."

ahahahahaha

El Padrino said...

could happen

they hungry for a change

tem said...

"cincy can hang with the Sooners?"

yes.


and explosion, i see the 1K comments. should i read some of them?

tem said...

""the treasure is all ours"

I just realized what you meant by this."


it still gets a ::blank stare:: from me.

dazed and confused said...

blue,

if you dont know, bj upton has a torn labrum, but will play with it

Keith S said...

Lots of torn labrums lately. Ocho Cinco, Kyle Boller, BJ Upton...

tem said...

by the by tem did not break a bitch's shin at practice because bitch hurt herself trying to catch a pop up.

tem said...

tem did hit said pop up, but it was supposed to be an easy play.

i've never seen anyone take a pop up off of their hip before but this chick did.

i couldn't stop laughing.

i think she is gonna quit.

Keith S said...

"More high school students than ever before are playing high school sports, according to a group representing the country's state high school athletic associations."


There are also more people in the US than there has ever been.

Keith S said...

Why are you popping it up? You must suck

El Padrino said...

coed leagues are the worse

tem said...

"Why are you popping it up? You must suck"

so she could practice catching pop ups.

tem said...

i also tossed the pitch to myself.

tem said...

she played outfield in hike school and was sure she'd be good still.


i seriously doubt she was ever good. she had her glove turned the wrong way to catch the ball.

tem said...

and she had her glove way to her left and the ball hit her right hip. then she fell down.

Dikembe Meiztombo said...

I need adviced

tem said...

"on a side note, I need to get laid. It's been 4 days... ugh"


fuck you H.

Dikembe Meiztombo said...

What could/should I move to get Rodgers?
------------------------------


Your Team Sucks
1. (9) Marion Barber
2. (20) Reggie Wayne
3. (37) Michael Turner
4. (48) Jason Witten
5. (65) Roddy White
6. (76) Marc Bulger
7. (93) Julius Jones
8. (104) Anthony Gonzalez
9. (121) Rudi Johnson
10. (132) Jason Campbell
11. (149) Sidney Rice
12. (160) Indianapolis
13. (177) Mark Clayton
14. (188) Chris Johnson
15. (205) Shaun Suisham

El Padrino said...

oh we are talking about comments from yesterday

tem said...

WADR

tem said...

"tem is the oldest on LOV right?"

no, tp is.

tem said...

"and I'm pretty sure no one will read any of this tomorrow"

don't underestimate tem's lack of wanting to do real work.

tem said...

also, don't underestimate the WALLS we get during the day.

isiah thomas said...

deke - wft is your team name in ffbl?

isiah thomas said...

by the time moss caught the ball he was already down - no contact.

shoulda let the play go then replay - as spiffg said.

td.

game wasn't close though.

isiah thomas said...

and ed hocculi (sp) fucking up that one announcement was great.

by rule this is hilarity.

tem said...

lots of deleted comments.

that is sadness.

Dikembe Meiztombo said...

Meet your Demeiz

Dikembe Meiztombo said...

"lots of deleted comments.

that is sadness."

Yes.

isiah thomas said...

12oz Red Bull, how do I love thee.

saw a bigger size at the store this am - it scurred me.

isiah thomas said...

it was like a 40 oz

El Padrino said...

Ed Hoch picking up guys from the floor is great, he's jacked.

El Padrino said...

hottest girl i've seen in a longtime

isiah thomas said...

done deke

Dikembe Meiztombo said...

nobody wants to help a brother out? Bollocks.

tem said...

deleted comments are not HDH.

isiah thomas said...

Ed Hoch picking up guys from the floor is great, he's jacked.

yeah he was tossing guys left and right

tem said...

you'll have to tell us who the guy that has rogers on his roster has.


i'd say trade rudi and someone for him, but if the other guy is stoked at RB that would make little sense.

isiah thomas said...

Julius Jones and/or Marc Bulger should get Rodgers

or Rudi + Marc

isiah thomas said...

wow, Rudi Johnson i-2-i.

that is impressive.

ns

isiah thomas said...

tps is looking at me like Justin Tuck was looking at Stephon Heyer last night.

tem said...

is deke wanting to keep marc?

tem said...

if campbell didn't just shit the bed, a rudi + campbell or jones + campbell would have worked probably.

Dikembe Meiztombo said...

The other team
--------------------------

1. (5) Peyton Manning
2. (24) Willis McGahee
3. (33) Ronnie Brown
4. (52) Marvin Harrison
5. (61) Jerricho Cotchery
6. (80) Chris Cooley
7. (89) Donald Lee
8. (108) Antwaan Randle El
9. (117) Nate Kaeding
10. (136) David Patten
11. (145) Aaron Rodgers
12. (164) Tennessee
13. (173) Jerious Norwood
14. (192) Leon Washington
15. (201) Chester Taylor

Dikembe Meiztombo said...

"is deke wanting to keep marc?"

Yeah, for the most part.

Dikembe Meiztombo said...

Or I'd like to get my hands on Kitna

Dikembe Meiztombo said...

fantasy help kilt LoV

isiah thomas said...

that team has no rbs, offer him up rbs deke.

Jugdish said...

"Or I'd like to get my hands on Kitna"

my bare chest > J Campbell said...

kitna, this retard.

*although he should be alright this season.

my bare chest > J Campbell said...

wft

my bare chest > J Campbell said...

blogger doesn't like > in names

Jugdish said...

Or Id like to get my hands on Kitna

fixed?

pasthword is nipplessss said...

better?

pasthword is nipplessss said...

ep, hook me with another pic, blocked on the one you posted

Jugdish said...

All the women in the office here ar having a white elephant gift exchange on the conference room right up the hall. The ironic thing is, most of them are white elephants.

tem said...

yeah that other team might go

rudi and campbell for rodgers


you might need to take something else back and drop it.

tem said...

the women or the gifts?

Jugdish said...

The women, and possibly some of the gifts.

Jugdish said...

Why do you want Aaron Rodgers so bad? Do you have an injury spot on your roster you need to fill?

tem said...

i just stretched 15 minutes of work until 1:15pm.

i dun good.

tem said...

"Why do you want Aaron Rodgers so bad? "

because his backup QB is Campbell.

tem said...

and AR is a Packer.

Jugdish said...

Rodgers will be injured by whatever week you need him to fill in.

Dikembe Meiztombo said...

"that team has no rbs, offer him up rbs deke."

Yeah, but what?

Dikembe Meiztombo said...

I don't want to over-spend

tem said...

send him rudi.

rudi probably won't see the field for you.

Jugdish said...

White Tiger?

tem, did you know about this?

El Padrino said...

try this one zeke

pasthword is nipplessss said...

Yeah, but what?

rudi and change should get it done.

he doesn't need much of a back-up for Manning - even with that knee.

El Padrino said...

espn really pushing these blogs on us huh

pasthword is nipplessss said...

blocked from all photobuckets

El Padrino said...

jesus the pic makes sense with the name

let me find something else

dazed and confused said...

"I don't want to over-spend"

SHOCKING

pasthword is nipplessss said...

yeah web-nazi is no joke

dazed and confused said...

the other guys team kinda really sucks

tem said...

i had no clue that JG was the white tiger.

now i know.

El Padrino said...

Campbell cant tough this

try this with that name

El Padrino said...

Zeke

*touch

not tough

El Padrino said...

that would be a HDH though

El Padrino said...

what was wrong with Vinny Cerrato's eyes last night?

bugged out

El Padrino said...

Is Laron Landry changing his name to Brandon Jacobs JR.?

dazed and confused said...

landry made a mental mistake going stomach/chest level and paid for it terribly, landry is still a beast

Dikembe Meiztombo said...

"the other guys team kinda really sucks"

Yep. These dudes have no idea how to draft.

pasthword is nipplessss said...

pics aren't showing up, hopefully this works.

I ♥ Jim Zthorn

El Padrino said...

Giant bull dyke oprah is scurred, fucking fat digusting cunt

pasthword is nipplessss said...

landry made a mental mistake going stomach/chest level and paid for it terribly, landry is still a beast

the x-slo mo of that impact was HDH

El Padrino said...

pic works, just change your name to the pic link text

El Padrino said...

*landry made a mental mistake going stomach/chest level and paid for it terribly, landry is still a beast when he's teeing off on unsuspecting WR's

*fixed

Campbell cant touch this said...

*puts on parachute pants

*busts bad with the running man

Campbell cant touch this said...

watching Reed Doughty play SS makes #21's killing that much tougher to take.

Campbell cant touch this said...

Plax was going ATM last night.

El Padrino said...

Reed Daughtry is awful

RIP Sean Taylor.

Keith S said...

Tennis has the worse trash talking

El Padrino said...

smoot hurt?

Keith S said...

""is deke wanting to keep marc?"

Yeah, for the most part."

You know he's from wa va, and he sucks, right?

Keith S said...

older

Keith S said...

older

«Oldest ‹Older   1 – 200 of 905   Newer› Newest»

Top Of The Page Material:

"Idiots with nothing better to do"





"Most Boston sports fans are just douchebags. Because most people from New England are douchebags." - tem





"Obama got elected because of the Rooney rule" - Jug





"you should never let debt stop you from pro-creating anyway" - El Padrino





"If you agree with EP, change your opinion." - H





"i'm dumb and sensitive. basically i'm a woman" - L Padrino





"I'm so horny this morning. If there wasn't this sex offender list going around id grope bitches on the train this morning" - L Padrino