Tyler’s Invincible NBA Playoff Preview 2k7:
NOTE: I pretty much had to wait until the last minute to write this up because of all of the recent movement. I think I wrote stuff for seven or eight different scenarios. The West was pretty wild too, even though it looked like for a while it was pretty locked up. Lots of teams were in, and then they were out, then they were back in, and then they were back out. Madness. Anyways, here we go...
Eastern Conference;I’m just going to start this off by saying that even though I’m totally biased towards the West Coast, it still doesn’t change the fact that there’s a noticeable between the two conferences. The #1 team in the East, Detroit, would be the #5 or 6 seed in the West. That’s a huge gap. And here’s the thing; I don't know how this gets equaled out anytime soon. The West is loaded and it's going to take a lot of blockbuster trades and free agent travel to balance it out. But I guess there’s always the chance that this upcoming draft is going to live up to all of the hype. If two Eastern squads can grab the top two picks, and if it’s truly as deep as they say, then in a couple of years you could see it start to shift back to something resembling parity between the two conferences. Anyhow, I just thought I throw that out there. Now we’re really going to get to the series-by-series analysis right now, I promise.
#1 Detroit (52-29) vs. #8 Orlando (40-42)Detroit is looking a little long in the tooth and Orlando is obviously the up and coming squad, I like this match-up but Orlando’s still underpowered. They just need to gel together another year, hire a better coach (Brian Hill
will be fired after this season), and sign a key free agent or two and then boombangpow!, they're an elite team in the East. Dwight Howard, simply put, is a
man. The dude is insane. I've caught a couple of their games, I’ve seen his crazy highlights on SportsCenter, and I jumped out of my seat when he was in the dunk contest. He is going to be a force in this league if he can avoid getting hurt, and if the Magic’s management can put better talent around him. I really hope he has a breakout series so the rest of the nation can see what he can do. On the flipside, Detroit, even without Big Ben, is still the #1 team in the East, and that’s gotta count for something. They’re still a championship squad, and they’ve got veterans that have a lot of playoff experience. I still think CWebb turns on the reserve tanks an pulls off a slightly above average playoff run that ends with him getting paid next season. It will probably piss off every fan that’s ever cursed his name after he’s single-handedly destroyed their home team (The list is getting pretty long, it includes: any Golden State or Bullets/Wizards fans, The Rev/Philly and yours truly as I was a huge Sacto fan back when they had that nice run a couple of years ago). Like I said, somehow, someway, he cons an NBA GM into giving him loot, could be in Detroit, but it could be somewhere else. Some GM is going to make the mistake. It may not a huge contract, but it’s gonna be one of those ones that you’re going to notice right away, once it’s announced that it’s got a couple of years too many attached to it. Unless they can channel the 1999 Knicks, it’s De-troit-basket-ball rolling into the next round.
#2 Cleveland (50-32) vs. #7 Washington (41-41)What do you really want me to say here? I mean, how many more guys can The Wiz lose for the rest of the season? I think they’re starting some D-Leaguers right about now. And they’ve gotta go on the road against Cleveland, a team they couldn’t beat last year in the playoffs when they were 100% healthy? Cleveland could possibly sweep this series, but I’m going to say that if anyone dodged a bullet in the last couple of days, it’s the Cavs. They were staring right at a first round match-up with Miami, but then the Bulls decided to implode and now the Cavs wind up a #2 seed and basically get a free pass against Washington. A guy I work with is already calling it a conspiracy to get LeBron more playoff time. Cavs move on, and it might be 4-0.
#3 Toronto (47-35) vs. #6 New Jersey (41-41)I don’t really know too much about The Raptors. I mean, I know Chris Bosh is a stud, but I really have no idea how they won 47 games. They’re 2500 miles away, in another country, so why should I care about them, eh? I guess this is my chance to find about them, but I really like Jersey for some reason. They’ve dealt with adversity the entire season, they’ve got playoff experience, and even their lack of frontcourt depth doesn’t hurt them too much in this match-up. And they came up bigtime in their last game against the Bulls. I like teams with momentum at the end of the season, and Jersey’s got that going for them. All they really have to worry about is Bosh (Mickey Moore and that rookie Boone have been playing rather well as of late), then concentrate on perimeter D. I think they have a real shot at winning this series. Just keep Ford from penetrating and dishing out to their shooters and that’s half the battle. The Raps have a lot of Euro big men that like to shoot, and Bosh seems to be the only inside threat they’ve got. VC is probably gonna blow up the contract at the end of the season, so don’t think he’ll mail this one in, especially against his old team. Jefferson’s back, they’ve got Kidd running the offense, their only glaring defect is their frontcourt, but like I said, that’s mitigated to an extent by Toronto’s personnel. I think they’ve got enough to get out of the first round here, and Toronto is send packing.
#4 Miami (44-38) vs. #5 Chicago (49-32)Man, does it suck to be the Bulls. Ya coulda been the #2 seed, man, but ya screwed it up. Now you get the defending champs in the first. Ouch. So, sidebar here, Miami’s the #4 seed, but Chicago’s got home-court. Doesn’t this technically make the Bulls the #4 seed? I find this whole seeding business highly suspect. Run them 1-8 based on record and be done with it. Back to the match-up, I don’t like teams that lose their way into the playoffs and the Bulls blew a great opportunity. For the Heat, D Wade’s kind of back (I guess he’s having knee problems now) and you know Shaq’s been waiting for the playoffs to start since January. The rest of the Heat’s roster would be a kick-ass fantasy team if this was like seven or eight years ago. Memo to Pat Riley: it's not 1998, please advise regarding your super creaky roster. Things could go south for the Heat real fast, especially if Wade opts out of the last year of his extension, which, coincidentally, is right after Shaq’s contract is up. This team could be the Grizzles inside of three years, enjoy it while it lasts, Miami. Personally, I think Riles calls it quits after this season. The Bulls? I just don’t like their team. They need a trade ASAP to get some low post scoring. When PJ Brown is your starting power forward, you’ve got problems. Ben Wallace isn’t noted for his offensive prowess either. That’s 2/3 of your starting frontcourt that don’t give you too much on the offensive end. So they’ve gotta rely a lot on jumpshots and dribble/penetration to kick it out for some 3’s to keep themselves in the game, and there are inevitably going to be some games when those shots don’t go down for you. I’m taking Miami in what could be a tight one, but I think Chicago chokes and the Heat move on.
Western Conference:#1 Dallas (67-15) vs. #8 Golden State (42-40)So this is an interesting match-up. The Warriors were one of two teams that I thought were going to make a nice push at the end of the season and move up to grab a spot. Nelly basically had a big hand in building and coaching that Mavs team, then he left or was forced to leave, or he quit/was fired at the same time, I’m still not sure what happened. Anyways, then he goes back to his old stomping grounds in Oakland, and now has to face his old team in the first round. Good luck, Golden State, you’re gonna need it. They’re stoked because they’re in the playoffs for the first time since ’94, but they’ve gotta be bummed they drew Dallas. I actually like the Warriors, they’ve gelled as a team since that trade, and Stephan Jackson finally looks like he’s found a home. They play Nellyball, which means they love to run and gun, but they’re going to be running into a brick wall called Dallas. This will not end well. The Warriors are a young team that needs some more time to put it together and even after that they’re still probably a couple of pieces away from contending. But you can finally see the potential, as opposed to the perceived underachieving that was happening in the previous two or three years before they dumped all of their dead weight onto the Pacers. The Mavs are the defending Western Conference champs, have the best record in the league, and if the refs hadn’t have taken over that Finals series last year, there would be a Championship banner hanging in Big D right now. I don’t care if the Warriors have won the last five match-ups, that was during the regular season, and they had the drop on the Mavs because of injuries and scheduling. There should be a massive team suicide if the Mavs don’t win this series. Mavs win, but the Warriors could steal one or two.
#2 Phoenix (61-21) vs. #7 Lakers (42-40)[Memo to Zeke: read the whole paragraph before you start ripping me]
I'll admit it. Even after the season had started, I had already written the Suns off. Nash couldn't possibly top what he's done in the last couple of years. Diaw is out of shape. Amare's not going to be the same guy he was before microfracture surgery. Raja Bell is not a starting shooting guard. Roleplayers like Barbosa who signed phat extensions aren't going to contribute anything because they're just going to be content with getting paid. I was pretty much wrong on everything. They stumbled initially out of the gate, but went on some crazy runs and secured the number two seed. And they look scary when they're 100% healthy. They're the perfect storm; the right personnel complemented by the right coaching staff and it all comes together in the perfect style of play for their team. I think this is the year they've gotta go to the finals. The aforementioned extensions and the Banks signing is going to make it super hard for them to add any help or extend Marion's contract, especially with ownership that has already gone on record as saying they’re not willing to pay the luxury tax. Of course, I just doubted them
again, so they'll probably roll through to the finals, win it all, and then be set on kill for next season just to make me look like a moron. The Lakers, well, this is the match they’ve been sayin’ they want, so you better man up and show what you can do. I think they actually match-up pretty well against the Suns when they’ve got everyone healthy and when they’re properly motivated. This is where The Zenmaster is going to earn his paycheck. He’s going to have to step it up and motivate a young team, especially when they have to go on the road in a tough venue. I wouldn’t be surprised if this goes seven, but I just really don’t see that happening. I think that the Lakers are still too young and injured to slay the giant. And the way they’ve fallen down the rankings the last month is not a good indication of where their heads are at. Suns in 6 (that’s at the very most, it could be less).
#3 San Antonio (58-24) vs. #6 Denver (45-37)Man, I really wish the Lakers could have held the 6 spot so we would have had the top two offenses go at each other (Suns vs. Denver) in a classic ‘80s style shootout. I really wanted to see some crazy final scores like 133-129 with or without OT. That would have been awesome. Instead, we get Spurs and Nuggs. In boxing, they say styles make fights, and this one could be a really good series either way, or a really bad series either way. Denver could run the Spurs out of the gym or the Spurs could lock them down and grind this series out. Whoever imposes their will first is going to take this series. Denver was the other team that I thought would make a nice push at the end of the season, and it finally looks like they’ve got everything figured out. It was pretty much just a matter of time when you’ve got two guys like A.I. and Mello on your squad, everyone else just needs to get out of the way and then get back on D. Their record for the last couple of weeks of the season reflects all of the progress they’ve made as of late. With all that said, no one really wants to match-up against the Spurs in the first round. They’re a veteran squad, they’ve won championships, and they make you play their game. I want to take the Nuggs, but I’m going to go with the Spurs, just based on both teams past playoff performances. Denver still has to ways to go and they’re still missing guys due to injury. Spurs have the better coach/bench/vets and they’re much more consistent.
#4 Utah (51-31) vs. #5 Houston (52-30)Much like the Miami/Chicago situation, Utar’s going to have to go on the road to pull this one out. A lot of people are including Houston in the West elite with the big three, and on paper, they actually look like they’ve got an outside chance to contend if they can just put it all together at the right time. They can match-up with just about everyone, and I’ve caught a couple of their games where they’ve just taken teams apart. They’ve got Yao back, and they somehow held down the fort when their two stars missed a massive amount of games, Jeff Van Gundy finally seems to have gotten an idea on how to coach this team, McGrady’s 0-5 in the playoffs, and I think this is finally the year he gets out of the first round. This is not going to be a pretty series though, watch it at your own risk. It’s gonna be a brutal, half-court, grind-it-out, possession-based slug fest. Houston’s too deep for the Jazz, and they can’t stop Yao, and to a lesser extent they can’t stop McGrady either. So I think Houston wins the right to get steamrolled by the Mavs in the second round.
I set up a league on NBA.com for a fantasy game that’s like a NCAA Bracket Pick ‘Em, only you also have to guess how many games each team is going to win in. Go
here, make an account if you don’t already have one, create a team name, then join a league. Search for LOV and the password is: vengeance. Fill out your picks, and don’t forget about the tie-breaker. Let’s get it on!
-Tyler