Friday, September 14, 2007

El Padrino's Weekly Betting Column

New format this year, I'm tweakin it.
First let's go around the league for some news and notes.

Elijah Manning took some snaps in pratice and handed the ball off. Even soft tossed the pig around as well. If he comes away from Friday's practice less sore than today he could start on Sunday.

Ogden likely out, as is McNair.

Don't be surprised if Culpepper starts this Sunday. McNown is hindered by two seperate injuries and did not play as well as his stats indicate.

Last year the Colts beat the Titans in Tenn. 14-13, and LOST to them in their own place 20-17. Remember the 60-yarder to win it by Bironas?

It's 70-30 that Cadiallac will give it a go at home vs New Orleans.

The Orlando Pace injury is huge.

Randy Moss sitting out of another practice. I would not worry about this though.

Roscoe Parrish may steal some balls away from Josh Reed, that's if J.P. Losman can find away to produce more than 97 yards of passing offense.

Fantasy Talk (2 or 3 start suggestions, 2 or 3 sit suggestions)
Starts of the week:
QB, Brett Farve - Gints secondary is terrrrriiible, Farve owns 833 yards, 7 TD's and one INT over the past 4 games against the Giants.

RB, Adrian Peterson - Last season the Vikes rushed for 307 yards and 4 TD's vs the Lions. And with Chester the Molestor nursing a injury it's likely AD will be seeing more of the ball.

WR, Donald Driver - Again, see Farve.

Sit of the week:
QB, Marc Bulger - They are going to need two or three weeks to get over this Pace injury. And San Fran has a fast front seven.

RB, Marshawn Lynch - Nice debut against a solid Denver team but I have a feeling he will struggle vs. Pittsburgh @ Heinz Field.

WR, Ronald Curry - Denver's secondary is alot different than the Lions secondary.

Time for action.
Last Week's numbers:
College: 3-0
Pros: 2-2
Overall: 5-2

College:
FLORIDA -8.5 over Vols ($50)
Florida's first chance to flex their collective muscles on a real college football team. Vols can't hang with the Gators this year. Normally they do (including last year FL won 21-20). Normally rev eats birthday cake.

IOWA ST. +17.5 over Iowa ($50)

Don't the Cyclones play Iows tough every year? Even beating them two years ago? Why yes they have. In 2003 Iowa won by 19, since then they have won 2 out of the last three by a total of 17 points and losing in 2005 by 20. Go figure. Take the points.

WASH +4.5 over O. State ($50)
This was on my radar before Keef mentioned it yesterday. Wash looks fiesty good this year while O state looks very pedestrian. That Boise win was big last week too.

Parlay (Pays 2 to 1 on each single bet so 40+40+40=120):

I also like ($20 Parlay, brings back $120): Over 44 in Mich/ND, Boise at home -13 over Wyoming and B.C getting a TD in Atlanta vs. the Yellow Jackets.

Pros:
Bills +10.5 over STEELERS ($100)
Buffalo lost a close on at home vs a good Bronco team and Pittsburgh beat up on a bad Browns team. Are the Steelers that awesome to lay that many points. I'm about to find out.

MIAMI +3.5 over Dallas ($50)

I'll bite on the home dog. Opening game, Green threw for 340 vs Dallas as a Cheif and Jason Taylor is the best in the business at disrupting the quarterback.

Vikes +3 over DETROIT ($50)
In my preview I said the Vikes would be better than most people think. In most part due to a vicious front four and a great running game. Detroit's weakness's are stopping the run and blocking the passer. It's a gambling win-win for me.

New Orleans -3.5 over TAMPA BAY ($25)

I'm skeptical about this game but how can the Saints only muster 60 some odd yards on the ground? Either the Colts have a dynasty or that was an aberration.


Tease me :4 team tease, get 12 points any which way
Pats +8
Bears @ a pick em'
Broncos +1.5
Sota +15


Suicide Pick(I'll give 2) : Jacksonville. Baltimore.

How's that for a fucking football column. Hi Bill.

424 comments:

1 – 200 of 424   Newer›   Newest»
El Padrino said...

"O.J. Simpson Questioned In Connection With Casino Burglary"

awesome

El Padrino said...

rev, wtf is up with your city, lock the doors, hide the children, black man- stand up and fight!

El Padrino said...

helllooooooo

tem said...

el pad, that was one of the best columns ever.

tem said...

but i am ton patting your back for it. wvu wins by 17, was that the line or did you get in at 16.5 or 17.5?

tem said...

should i start jevon kearse in my IDP league or start Williams, Kevin DL MIN and Ogunleye, Adewale DL CHI?

tem said...

well i need to pick 2 of those 3.

El Padrino said...

line was 17.5, i didnt bite

El Padrino said...

Williams is nasty

tem said...

good call not biting then.

tem said...

i was going to go with williams and kearse because kearse is playing a 2nd stringer, but kearse is hurt a bit, so i don't know.

tem said...

i dropped ankiel again in the fantasy dealy. he should hit 10 HRs in the next 2 days.

tem said...

Frank Thomas' walk off single was his 8TH career walk off hit.

that is staggering. only 8???

ToddPacker said...

good picks, ep...."Normally rev eats birthday cake" cracked me up

ToddPacker said...

phils are back

El Padrino said...

the mets will demolish the phillies this time around

El Padrino said...

tps is standing in front of the no work for the rest of the day door

i may have to sweep the leg

tem said...

sweep the leg and break its neck el pad.

El Padrino said...

i say save the bengals for when clevland plays in their house

ditto with ravens

ToddPacker said...

phillies will pay for that 4 game sweep a couple of weeks ago

ToddPacker said...

ep pic is getting the red-x treatment

ToddPacker said...

smoked pork is on the menu for the tailgate tomorrow... got enough to feed 30 people last night

El Padrino said...

smoked pork sounds glorious

tem said...

red x here as well.

tem said...

of course now that i wrote that red x is gone.

tem said...

i like the jax suicide pick, but not really the ravens one.

whocares said...

Nice call TP. We smoked some Boston Butts before the game last weekend. The Butts were tasty, the game was not.

tem said...

wc you at a new job yet?

El Padrino said...

tasty butts

interesting

whocares said...

yeah, I sort of have a new job. I quit my old one and have started my own company.

This is my first week of self(un)employment.

El Padrino said...

whoa

ceo dub-c in the house

tem said...

what does your own company do?

ToddPacker said...

wc, i was thinking about you last weekend.... i was really rooting for auburn to win what usf game

ToddPacker said...

good luck with the new venture

ToddPacker said...

wc, you coming to gainesville in 2 weeks?

whocares said...

I guess you would call it consulting, but that's a word I dont really like to use since it chases most people away.

But yeah, it's pretty much consulting...

ToddPacker said...

dtm should comment soon, now that wc has commented

tem said...

I feel bad, I was rooting for USF.

whocares said...

*healthcare consulting.

tem said...

no, dtm is blue and blue is on vacation. so no dtm.

tem said...

healthcare consulting?

like consulting doctors on what equipment to use or what comp. software to use, or consulting insurance companies on how to be bigger douchebags?

whocares said...

TP,I was hoping that we would win that game as well. Just a really shitty game by us on the offensive side. Defense is pretty solid, offense suuuuucks.

And no, not making it to G'ville. I am heading to the beach that weekend instead. I'd rather watch that ass whiping with a pina colada in my hand than a luke warm bourbon and coke.

ToddPacker said...

all of a sudden everyone around here is a usf fan.... giving that line of crap that they have always rooted for usf.... makes me sick, they're luck to get 20,000 people at a football game and they could barely sell any bowl tickets last year.... i hate bandwagoners

El Padrino said...

health is important

good call

ToddPacker said...

health care = $$$

El Padrino said...

tp i hear that

whocares said...

Consulting them on different service contracts, capital equipment purchases, things like that. Basically showing them how to save money by choosing the proper companies to do business with.

whocares said...

Some of the USF fans were just......wow.


I think most places in the SEC are pretty much the same. Not a lot of face painting, not a lot of fans dressed up like douches (i.e. the dude that dresses up like an Eagle for whynotus). But USF fans had all of them.

We leave that shit for the Big Ten and the NFL.

whocares said...

I'm out.

This whole owning my own business thing is realy eating into my free time.

ToddPacker said...

starting your own business is a gutsy move... i don't think i have the stones to do it, not with a family and all.... good luck to ya, wc

tem said...

doctors are dumb.

lawyers make everything more complex than it needs to be.

tem said...

i dislike USF, but when Big East is playing non Big East, I root for Big East.

El Padrino said...

yeah good luck with that
if u need any syringes or canes at a discount let me know
one of my friends steals medical equipment

El Padrino said...

*medical supplies

El Padrino said...

like donuts, canes, walkers, gauze
shit like that

El Padrino said...

i'm a big east fan so i rooted for USF

El Padrino said...

and im not apologizing for it

tem said...

starting your own business is too much work for tem.

ToddPacker said...

ep has a walker hook-up.... nice

tem said...

i am only apologizing to wc because his team had to lose.

tem said...

blue goes away and dtm goes away.

dtm = blue. case closed.

ToddPacker said...

i've counted 4 casual friday usf shirts today a work.....

tem said...

work is a clusterfuck of reorganzing. maybe i should make a power move to take over the whole place.

tem said...

casual friday is a no-go on my floor. downstairs has it though. the only person i have seen is old chick who wears tight harley davidson shirts.

in other words the only one i saw is the one i did not want to see.

ToddPacker said...

"blue goes away and dtm goes away.

dtm = blue. case closed"


i think you're right, tem

tem said...

just call me columbo.

Lou said...

The Greatest Website


Ever...

tem said...

Does Kentucky have any chance against Louisville?

WWL seems to be making folks think that they do.

El Padrino said...

the sread is low and after louisville's defensive performance last week who knows

tem said...

hungry is delayed today.

i might have to hurt people.

El Padrino said...

i'm starved already myself

Beth said...

Lou/Steve, what kind of sandwich can I get you? :-)

Lou said...

anything from you baby.

tem said...

that site sounded nsfw so i skipped it.

tem said...

i always forget that lou = steve.

isiah thomas said...

In my matchup this week:

Looking great on O, I should sweep all those categories....

I'm thinking of sitting my pitchers for the rest of the week, I've got ERA and WHIP on lock, Tem is p-n-d'ing, so if I sit my guys I'll punt W/K/Hld/SV.

But with ERA/WHIP and O I'll still win.

Sound strategy?

Dikembe Meiztombo said...

I'm starved also

tem said...

zeke, i think you got it locked up.

tem said...

i am not sure i can even get my ERA down if you start your pitchers.

tem said...

you'll win either way.

it's like michigan deciding if they should try to run all over appalachian state or just throw all over them.

except you'll still win and won't fuck it up like they did.

isiah thomas said...

I think most places in the SEC are pretty much the same. Not a lot of face painting, not a lot of fans dressed up like douches (i.e. the dude that dresses up like an Eagle for whynotus). But USF fans had all of them.

We leave that shit for the Big Ten and the NFL.

I love bitter SEC fans.

isiah thomas said...

nice column ep, good luck this weekend.

Mills said...

IOWA ST. +17.5 over Iowa ($50)

Don't the Cyclones play Iows tough every year? Even beating them two years ago? Why yes they have. In 2003 Iowa won by 19, since then they have won 2 out of the last three by a total of 17 points and losing in 2005 by 20. Go figure. Take the points.
--------------------
Yeah, but ISU just lost at home BADLY to Northern Iowa (Kurt Warner and Mike Furrey's school), who is I-AA.

Mills said...

Anyone hear Larry Johnson's rap stuff yet?

Mills said...

i dropped ankiel again in the fantasy dealy. he should hit 10 HRs in the next 2 days.
--------
good, cuz the only way we have a chance is to sweep the chubs.

Mills said...

yeah, I sort of have a new job. I quit my old one and have started my own company.

This is my first week of self(un)employment.
----------
at least you will not computer nazi's to bust you out.

what are you doing WC?

Mills said...

wups -- looks like that has been asked/answered.

ToddPacker said...

no lunch for me today

ToddPacker said...

using that hour to attack tps so i can leave early.... the friday before a home game is like a holiday.... i call it tailgate-eve

El Padrino said...

weazy is on a rampage

tem said...

why don't you go to lunch and leave early?

tem said...

LJ raps?

El Padrino said...

yeah but this is iowa st's game of the year

if they beat iowa the year is a success

ToddPacker said...

"why don't you go to lunch and leave early?"


i thought about that.... but i do need to get some tps done today

tem said...

mills popped in with a natty z.

tem said...

LOV is slower than Drew Bledsoe today.

El Padrino said...

or Kurt warner

Dikembe Meiztombo said...

feslngbwreougvmfcx v

Spaceman Spiff said...

according to SP, LOV is slower than jared lorenzen today

tem said...

right on meiz.

El Padrino said...

he's all over, SP

El Padrino said...

nbc, hbo, si, starbucks

Dikembe Meiztombo said...

So, how 'bout this weather we're having?

El Padrino said...

weather is great here

ToddPacker said...

hot

isiah thomas said...

weather is great here

ditto

(s)

tem said...

great here as well.

no random hurricanes.

El Padrino said...

i'm taking the detroit shock sunday

Dikembe Meiztombo said...

We be in like the 70s and shit

Dikembe Meiztombo said...

I want my fucking jerseys. Now.

How can we travel to the moon, yet haven't come up with a teleporter?

tem said...

what's a shock?

tem said...

teleporters need to be invented soon.

tem said...

hungry

ToddPacker said...

me too

Dikembe Meiztombo said...

Wow. This is terrible.

keith s said...

IT'S FRIIIIIIIDAAAAAAAAAAYYYYYY!!!!

Dikembe Meiztombo said...

Aardvark

El Padrino said...

i'm disappointed in the turnout

Spaceman Spiff said...

Belichek presser before punishment:
I'll comment on the situation after the league makes a ruling, until then ive said all i have to say.

Belichek presser after punishment:
The situation is over now, dont have any comment, anyone wanna talk about the upcoming game.

isiah thomas said...

the blood is on TPS's hands.....

isiah thomas said...

BB should have been suspended a few games....

ToddPacker said...

bb is a cheater

El Padrino said...

do any of you think he is the only guy who's done this?

where did he learn it from?

isnt the same as reading lips?

i find this whole thing to be very, very minor

ToddPacker said...

tps has been taking mixed martial arts classes

El Padrino said...

dan le retard said fans should scorn him like we scorn bonds

ToddPacker said...

reading lips is one level.... busting out the video cameras is taking it to the cheater level.... plus i hate the pats so i'm gonna ride the whole cheating thing.... it's funny to me

tem said...

camera thing is another level. fines and punishment seems appropriate.

i hate BB though. i wish they would have banned him forever.

tem said...

where do the mercury play?

El Padrino said...

phoenix

El Padrino said...

it's scouting to me, advanced scouting maybe

Dikembe Meiztombo said...

"i find this whole thing to be very, very minor"

I agree. Everybody uses some form of espionage. Right down to the high school level.

ToddPacker said...

if everyone does it, it seems like we would have seen a lot more $500,000 fines

El Padrino said...

i would hire Jason Bourne to be a "Advanced Scout"

Spaceman Spiff said...

other teams try to figure out what the signals are, but they dont use cameras to record it, thats the major diff, there was some article about how shanahan said broncos usually have signals figured out by half if not the first quarter.

El Padrino said...

everyone didnt get caught

AND

Mangini is a rat.

ToddPacker said...

"Mangini is a rat"

belichick is a cheater

Dikembe Meiztombo said...

"other teams try to figure out what the signals are, but they dont use cameras to record it"

How would you know?

ToddPacker said...

spiff knows all

El Padrino said...

"How would you know? "

exactly

El Padrino said...

i'd rather be a cheater than a rat

Spaceman Spiff said...

the no camera rule was made because of the patriots

El Padrino said...

the big tuna is behind this

El Padrino said...

where did belicheck learn it from

you think he devised this whole plan?

El Padrino said...

Vermeil used tears, Belichik uses video cassettes

ToddPacker said...

"the big tuna is behind this"

probably

ToddPacker said...

"Vermeil used tears, Belichik uses video cassettes "

crier
cheater

tem said...

the only reason it is bad is because there is a specific no camera rule.

ToddPacker said...

i've already dropped the "none of your SBs are legit" to one of my freinds who is a pats fan.... not that i agree with the statement, but it's funny watching him get pissed

tem said...

if there were no such rule then it wouldn't mean squat. but there is, he should just hire some smart motherfucker to watch the other teams signals, just like every other team does.

Spaceman Spiff said...

if other teams do this, how is the best team in the league the one that gets caught multiple times with a guy directly across the other teams defense with a camera in plain view.

how is the best team the worst at disguising their cheating

tem said...

i heard that tagliabue orchestrated this, the vick stuff, the pac man stuff, everything.

he wants to taint the gooddell era.

tem said...

next time i go to scout an apartment market i am going to say i work for an NFL team and i just sit there and try to decode the other teams' signals.

El Padrino said...

tagliabue = devil

isiah thomas said...

I'd be surprised if Parcells taught BB this, this is ABC.

Another Bellichik Creation

...at..the..playground...ya know

isiah thomas said...

Weiss hasn't done shit since he left NE, and he's an "offensive genius".....

ND's Video Guy < NE's Video Guy

apparently.

El Padrino said...

"how is the best team the worst at disguising their cheating "

Ignorance is bliss, my friend. Don't burden yourself with the secrets of scary people

El Padrino said...

arrogance

Dikembe Meiztombo said...

"how is the best team the worst at disguising their cheating"

Keith Hernandez

isiah thomas said...

LOV Poll/advice du jour:


Weekly NFL pick 'em office pool (just winners, no spread) is 2$ per sheet.

I usually just turn in 1 sheet. Irregardless of the time of season/matchups, etc, the winning # is usually pretty high.

Should I turn in 1 sheet with my picks and other sheets of "off the wall" type picks?

Is this similar to turning in more than 1 NCAA Tourney sheets?

Please advice.

tem said...

1 of your picks and 1 of el pad's picks or off the wall ones.

JFreak said...

Belicheat.

Dikembe Meiztombo said...

Where the fuck is el retardo's friday column?

El Padrino said...

2 is nothing

turn it 4, make it a buck

El Padrino said...

sep 8th's GA blog entry is riveting

ToddPacker said...

zeke you should take pictures of everyone elses sheets and then make your picks based on what other have picked.... i don't think that's cheating

isiah thomas said...

Tiger is at -12

isiah thomas said...

I like that idear TP.

tem said...

GA blog?

Dikembe Meiztombo said...

TP is a bitter old man.

I suppose you prefer women's basketball over the NBA because it's more fundamentally sound.

tem said...

tiger shot a poop hands 28 on the front 9.

tem said...

women no dunk, but have good fundamentals.

El Padrino said...

Arenas's blog

"I think all men should do this when they have a disagreement. This is Relationship 101. When you have a fight with “the other,” don’t answer their calls and don’t answer their pages. That usually gets the point across that you’re not talking to them. So, I held out for seven days. I went on strike for seven days and stayed at the gym for seven days. I slept in the gym. They got nice couches in there and it just kept me in the gym working on my knee and stuff. "

tem said...

sounds like solid advice.

JFreak said...

College > NBA

Not even close.

ToddPacker said...

i don't like you anymore, miez

ToddPacker said...

"College > NBA

Not even close"



very true

isiah thomas said...

I dropped an ABC (Another Bad Creation) lyric and it gets no run.....

for shame

isiah thomas said...

College > NBA

Not even close.



I more false statement has never been spoken.

Dikembe Meiztombo said...

Sorry TP.

tem said...

women's college > WNBA

Dikembe Meiztombo said...

I'm on Zeke's side.

tem said...

rap lyrics fly right over my head.

Dikembe Meiztombo said...

I caught the ABC line.

Hell, I dropped some 'Major League' gold yesterday an nobody seemed to catch it.

El Padrino said...

Pros > College

in all sports

isiah thomas said...

do we need to call a sitdown to iron out the TP/Deke situation?

isiah thomas said...

I've got that song stuck in my head now.

El Padrino said...

halloween candy is in the building

ToddPacker said...

easter candy > holloween candy.... but i think that has been discussed already

El Padrino said...

it has, and i agree

ToddPacker said...

"do we need to call a sitdown to iron out the TP/Deke situation? "


no need for a sitdown, everything is cool, i might have been a little out of line.... now go get your shinebox, meiz

isiah thomas said...

ahahahahahaha that's good TP

Dikembe Meiztombo said...

YOU MOTHERFUCKER! I'LL FUCKIN' KILL YA!

El Padrino said...

great line

keith s said...

"College > NBA

Not even close."


Si.

tem said...

and just like that, LOV has a good hour.

ToddPacker said...

that might be the best movie evAr.... it never gets old

tem said...

i would pay good money to see a:

zorse
tiger
cheetah
greyhound
squirell


compete in the following events:

100m dash
1000m dash (run)
long jump
high jump

ties would be broken with fights to the death.

ToddPacker said...

i'm out.... beer, pork, tailgating, making fun of people singing rocky and hopefully a W

ToddPacker said...

*rocky top

Dikembe Meiztombo said...

What about the zonkey?

or a liger?

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"Idiots with nothing better to do"





"Most Boston sports fans are just douchebags. Because most people from New England are douchebags." - tem





"Obama got elected because of the Rooney rule" - Jug





"you should never let debt stop you from pro-creating anyway" - El Padrino





"If you agree with EP, change your opinion." - H





"i'm dumb and sensitive. basically i'm a woman" - L Padrino





"I'm so horny this morning. If there wasn't this sex offender list going around id grope bitches on the train this morning" - L Padrino