Thursday, September 14, 2006

I'm A Degenrate

El Padrino's Weekly Football Betting Column

College:

Florida -3.5 over TENNESSEE
Vols squeaked one out last week against Air Force after an impressive beating of Cal a week prior. Which Vol team will show up? I'm guessing somewhere in between which tells me they ain't ready to beat a talented team like Florida. Too many weapons for Chris Leak who finally looks comfortable behind center. ($50)

USC -19 over Nebraska
No doubt Bill Callahan has done a great job in rebuilding that Nebraska program but Pete Carrol with two weeks to work with Booty and that offense will overwhelm him this week. And it's SoCal's first home game of the 2006 year so that merits a few td's alone. ($50)

FLORIDA STATE -3.5 over Clemson
Clemson comes in limping after that brutal loss to BC on Chestnut Hill last Saturday. Overtime thriller in which the Clemson kicker missed an extra point in OT to pretty much lose the game.
Father Bowden will have no mercy on his son after this week's practices made him look like the coach of Hoover High on that Two-A-Days show. FSU needs to send a message here. ($75)

Disclaimer: Because IAM requested and because I am (no pun intended) a nice guy I put in parenthesis how much I anticiapate putting on each game. Also tonight I mentioned WVU-17 over Maryland, that's worth ($100). Good Luck.

PROS

Lot's of big spreads this week.. Beware of the Back door covers!

Bucs +5.5 over HOTLANTA
King got one thing right in his picks for this week, nobody rallies a team to scrape a win out better than Jon "Chucky" Gruden. Plus Abraham is hobbled and last year I was at this game and the Bucs pulled it out in OT. That was a great game, Cadillac ran for like 130 and Vick fumbles in OT to set-up the game-winning FG. ($50)

SEAHAWKS -7 over Cards
Hawks rebound nicely at home and trounce the Cards. Niners put up points against these Cards so that tells me the Hawks will put up some points. Either that or the Madden curse will rear it's ugly head and Alexander will snap his fibula in the first quarter. ($100)

RAVENS -11 over Raiders
I can't help myself, this is too easy. Ray Lewis might actually eat Aaron Brooks. ($150)

Titans +12 over CHARGERS
Surprised? Smells like a back-door cover to me. I ain't sayin the Titans are going to win but the Chargers played the equivalent of a college team on Monday night. Titans came back and played good defense when it mattered on Sunday. They lost but they are a young team who can learn from that second half. Plus the Chargers ran the ball like 48 times or something like that. That smells like the O.Coordinator doesn't trust young Rivers yet. Look for Fisher to blitz his ass off Sunday. ($25)

Over/Under bet: Dolphins/Bills under 37
Saban has had since last Thursday night to prepare for the Bills. I don't expect them to score more than 10 in this AFC east match-up. ($25)

Exotic Bet: 4 game teaser
This allows me to add/subtract 13 points to each spread.

COLTS (Pk'em) over Texans
BEARS +5 over Detroit
BENGALS +2.5 over Browns
RAVENS +2 over Raiders

Easy enough, I'd say that warrants ($150).

Good Luck.

113 comments:

El Padrino said...

WVU made me sweat last night...
That one-handed catch on 3rd down in the 4th quarter was not funny

anonymous said...

let's also point out that WV's schedule is straight up cream puff.

i'll give em Lewy'ville, but damn them if by the end of the season they start bitching about "earning" a BCS bid.

temwr said...

So did Simmons come off as cool or a db on Colbert? WTF was he doing on that show anyway?

After quarter 1 WVU ran the same 5 plays over and over again. I am pretty sure their playbook has at least 10 plays, so they shut it down.

WVU defense looked BAD in quarters 2 and 3 and some of 4. The MD offense is OK, but WVU could not stop them from getting a first down...And number 92 or whatever needs to learn how to line up onsides...And the secondary needs to learn how to catch INTs. It was as if Peyton Manning was the MD QB and he was using his ninja mind fuck skillz to get the DBs to drop the INTs.

The Rev said...

Based on your selections, I'm gonna ride with USC, Baltimore, and Seattle.

Thank you.

Los said...

Good stuff, El Padrino - love the USC pick.

thejaywhite said...

the only college bet I think is a good one is the FSU / CLemson game.

the rest..I wouldnt touch...I will however be laying a lot on the irish.

El Padrino said...

you wouldnt touch the Ravens over the Raiders? or that sick tease I laid out for all?

beware of that irish bet jaywhite
mich hasn't won at ND in like 8 years....they are due.

Spaceman Spiff said...

lloyd carr is never due

El Padrino said...

WVU does have a cakewalk and by that time Louisville might have 2 losses themselves.

WVU defense needs to step it up in order for them to be uber-dominant
they should have won that game by 40 at least

good luck rev/los

Spaceman Spiff said...

i know wvu got a big lead and just quit trying to score, but wtf was up with the punter, he was shanking every punt, i swear to xenu.

El Padrino said...

well spiff as a Michigan fan i have to say the idea of Carr getting fired and having Rich Rodriguez come in is kind of intriguing...let's see what happens on Saturday

Spaceman Spiff said...

what are the thoughts on reggie bush? would you care if your heisman was taken away?

El Padrino said...

take it away, i dont give a fuck
give it to VY, after all he should have won anyway

Spaceman Spiff said...

his parents cashed in that lottery ticket too soon

El Padrino said...

acutally i just read the report and it's pretty detailed. USC might be screwed here. I guess Bush shit in Carrol's closet before he left.

Spaceman Spiff said...

it was worth it, after their 3 year run, they have recruiting on lock now

Spaceman Spiff said...

thanks for that teaser, cant touch that FSU pick tho, being a fan, i might be on the 10 o'clock news if all went wrong.

Beth82678 said...

You're a brave man el pad wagering on the Bucs-Falcons game. If I was a betting women (which I'm not) I would steer very clear of that one. I can see 2 very different scenarios playing out, both of which I think are equally likely.

First, everyone is underestimating the Falcons and how much they've improved themselves. Sure Abraham being out (and I'm convinced he's out although Mora is being coy) is a big loss, but they've got Grady up front who makes a huge (pun intended) difference, and it sounds like Kearney is definitely playing. Plus, they just seem more confident and skilled this year, and I'm also not convinced that the Bucs are very good.

Then again, it's usually when people start to believe in the Falcons that they show us how stupid we were for doing that. Just this morning a local columnist had an article in the paper about how this year is finally different, that last week was not just an emotional win over a turns-out-to-not-be-a-really-good-team like last year's opening win over the Eagles (sorry Rev), that this year they are business-like and efficient, etc. I've just seen the Falcons lay an egg way too many times after signs of hope to believe the local hype this early.

So el pad, I commend you on the size of your cajones for this pick. :-)

Spaceman Spiff said...

looks like people are loading up on nebraska, line is -17.5 now

El Padrino said...

thanks beth they call me teabgaz
and i think the line is too high if it were three i might of backed out, but i like picking (for the most part) the tight games

anyone can take the colts or bengals

Spiff one of el pads rules is no betting on the team you root for

Spaceman Spiff said...

this weekend is looking great to just be on the couch, capping it off with the skins beating the boys again, and ill already be at .2 blood alcohol from the earlier games by the time that even happens.

temwr said...

The teaser thing lets you adjust 13 points to 4 games(13 spread out over 4)? That is cool. I have not heard of such a thing. Could you have lowered the +5 on the Bears to +2 and moved the Ravens to +5?

El Padrino said...

No, you have to use all the 13 points on each team.
It's 13 because 4 teams are involved.

For instance a two game tease gives you six points and a three gives you 9 or 10 (depending on the site).

Eric said...

$775 on one weekend of football. That's impressive.

Isiah Thomas said...

taking away titles and the Heisman would be stupid. Like the schools and Vince Young (did he even finish second) would want them.

If I'm a big program I'm scared shitless of this investigation. If you think this is an isolated incident you're crazy.

Plus whoever is doing this investigation needs to be teabagged, they're just trying to make a name for themselves off Reggie.

And Reggie deserved the Heisman, it wasn't close.

temwr said...

Oh you get 13 for each game, totalling 52 points?

For your $150 bet on the 4 team teaser, what do you win if you hit the teaser?

Sorry for the stupid questions, I am a novice gambler at best.

temwr said...

Teams care about losing their nat championship, but I am not sure Auburn or VY would be happy with their hand me downs.

People around Ohio State still get mad when you talk about the final 4 banner they had to take down because of Coach O'Brien.

thejaywhite said...

i think teh ravens will cover..i was just talking about your college picks

Isiah Thomas said...

so taking it away washes everyone's memory of what really happens?

Just read Shanoff's blog and his "take away the heisman" "take away the titles" suggests are stoopid. It's grand-standing.

And these incidents happened with agents, not boosters, SC won't get killed for this.

Dikembe Meiztombo said...

Tem, Simmons was COMPLETELY uncomfortable on the Colbert Report. Awkward.

Isiah Thomas said...

I'll take Michigan and the pts and maybe even tease them with FLA and someone else to make them a bigger dog. I think the game will be close.

Michigan won't get blown out, and they could win this puppy outright.

Isiah Thomas said...

who's this colbert guy, never heard of him.

It sounds like Howard Stern, great on the air, awkward on tv. Some people just aren't comfortable there.

Shanoff's diary was weak. Simmons has loads of time to edit his work and add "pop culture" references. He probably can't spew them out ad lib style.

Spaceman Spiff said...

i repeat, lloyd carr

Isiah Thomas said...

ND is overhyped. Lloyd Carr and UM is due. You have to win one sometime to make it 1 for whatever vs ND at ND.

El Padrino said...

13 for each game, it's not combined

and you only win what you put up

for bets that bring back more for your initial bet try

parlay's or reverses

Parlay bet: Bring's back at $$ based on odds. Both have to win.

example: Ravens and Colts $50 parlay would proably bring back $150, it depends

Reverse: pays 4-1
example a $25 reverse brings back $100 so if you wanted the Ravens and Colts (both have to win) you get $100...now if one wins and one loses you only lose $25 plus vig
if both lose you lose double so ($60)

Isiah Thomas said...

I loved that within the first 2 minutes of Survivor some white guy stole something from another tribe. Then the black tribe punished the guy after they lost "Karma's a bizzle" was the quote.

The teams themselves are perpetuating stereotypes, not the show. If they keep the tribes like this the show will be one of the best ever. I've watched every season and this one is gonna be good.

Survivor is the Godfather of reality tv and is never bad in my book.

El Padrino said...

i agree with zeke
every nd-mich comes down to the last posession-- i like the six but it goes against my rules.

i'll just watch it with beer.

Isiah Thomas said...

btw, nice post EP, well done.

I think NYG +3 is tasty, I think they'll win outright.

Although I heard Greenberg take this pick so I can't endorse it.

temwr said...

OK more teaser question.

So this would have been an option:

BUCS +18.5
Seahawks +6
Ravens +2
Titans +25

And I knew about parlays, but was getting it mixed up with teaser. Which is why I thought for your 4 team teaser you'd win more than what you bet.

Why was Simmons on Colbert? Pimping his paperback?

El Padrino said...

zeke good lookin

i like the jints too but again
cant bet with your heart

El Padrino said...

tem- that's correct, it's a good one too.

Spaceman Spiff said...

zeke , you do have to win sometime, like the skins last year, but before that what was it like 8 years of losing.

Beth82678 said...

Isiah I totally agree with you on Survivor. This season looks really good and the race thing adds interest. (I posted early today on LOV about it but it was to an earlier thread.) It's really only the teams themselves talking about their own stereotypes.

In the local paper here yesterday Probst was quoted as saying there are 3 romantic hook-ups this season, with one being very surprising and that it could be one of the most unusual couples in reality tv history, whatever that means. Personally, I think that it means it's a couple guys (here's where everyone on this site says "ohhh, gross!") or a couple women (here's where everyone says "oh hell yeah i'm watching it now!").

Zeke Fucks My Mom said...
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Zeke Fucks My Mom said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Isiah Thomas said...

and I don't get detractors of the concept, I mean that is what 12 non-whites on the show? What other main stream tv show -reality or not has that many minorities on it?

jugdish said...

The NBA

The Rev said...

Yo Zeke...

You're the last one who needs to pick for the suicide pool. As soon as you got it, I'll take it.

Also, I will be announcing the official prize today once all picks are in. I decided on it this morning.

Isiah Thomas said...

I think the Asian group is too uptight and playing to the camera. When the guy was cracking asian jokes they got down on him. Gimme a break, don't take yourselves so seriously.

They did kick ass in the challenge though.

Isiah Thomas said...

I put a few comments on Shanoffs blog about Reggie Bush. The amount of people claiming to strip titles and fine SC and Bush astounds me.

One problem with Shanoffs blog is that too many people pander to him.

Isiah Thomas said...

even with the handful of easy games I don't like making picks too early due to injury, etc. I'll put up my pick shortly however.

Beth82678 said...

Of course they won the challenge, Asians always do well with puzzles and that's where they pulled ahead.

And yeah, that's a joke. :-)

Isiah Thomas said...

Rev, my pick....has been made.

Isiah Thomas said...

spill the beans on the prize

Spaceman Spiff said...

they should have a mixed race group, so i can see if us hybrids are actually worth it

Spaceman Spiff said...

simmons article is up. disclaimer: do not confuse his picks for EP's

anonymous said...

is anybody in the media really stunned by the reggie bush stuff? why dont they just make paying off college kids 'legal'. let them get endorsements and such.. youre already "paying them" with a free education.. and this is personal stuff strictly based off their talents..

so if youre good enough to get endorsements and have the college make shitloads off YOUR jersey sales, why shouldnt u be able to market yourself? it's all bidness, kna'mean.

anonymous said...

and for the record, stripping Bush of his records makes as much sense as "banning" Zidane for 3 games after he retired.

pointless BS. all just to make it "look" clean.

i blame the liberals.
and the conservatives.
and the greenies (both the party and the drugs).

Isiah Thomas said...

word life iam...

if you make your school $12 mil just from a BCS game and all you get is a scholarship? Sheeet.

pay the kids some money or set up a trust fund or something, they're robbing these kids blind.

El Padrino said...

been robbing them for eons

Isiah Thomas said...

thats my point, if I was Bush and saw 40,000 people wearing my jersey and I didn't get 1 cent it'd make me less averse to taking a handout from an agent...

Isiah Thomas said...

I'm out for a few hours for a meeting. Rev hook us with the prize details.

anonymous said...

zeke, make sure you come out of that meeting with a flashy swingman or a shoot first PG.

JFreak said...

Simmions looked decent on the Colbert Report. And yeah, he was there to talk about the paperback.

Much more funny on the show was that Colbert got a bridge in Hungary named after him. Even had the Hungarian ambassador to the US on the show.

The Rev said...

The prize and the picks are posted now.

Spaceman Spiff said...

good stuff, that slider didnt slide? didnt carter golf that thing out from his ankle?

The Rev said...

No Spiff. It was inside just below the waist. It went right in his wheelhouse.

Trust me, I can still see the pitch in my head.

temwr said...

Paying college athletes makes far too much sense, they'd never do it.

Although the real reason they don't do it is because of shitty sports nobody cares about. For whatever reason students on less popular teams (read: women's basketball, wrestling, tennis, golf, etc...this depends on the school too) think that they are just as important to the University as players who play the big sports. So the star women's basketball player at Texas thinks she should be paid as much as the star QB. And if she doesn't personally think that then there are about 100 activist groups out there that will bitch and moan that the way colleges pay athletes is sexist/racist/whatever. It is just a no win situation for everyone involved. It also pisses me off more than improv groups who don't do improv.

anonymous said...

Tem, im with ya.

as an athuhlete, you realize that youre not big time.. youre not the reason people are at the games. activists need to STFU. if im a lineman or a backup punter, im happy that im getting a free ride.. and im just a hater if im trying to score some of reggie bush's money.

but youre right.. everyone would get involved and it'd be a nightmare. it's kind of like a parent.. if the kids fight over the toys, you take em away altogether.

thank you, and im here for more parental advice if needed. Rev, when u get kids.. you know where to come.

temwr said...

Fridays are a good day to vent hate, so more hate:

I hate old people who get to a crosswalk while the don't walk thing is blinking and go across anyway. I am always in my car waiting to go through that crosswalk when they do this. And I have to wait for about 2 solid minutes while their old asses make it across. Then people behind me get mad at me, like its my fault.

temwr said...

OK suppose before a guy golf tourney the spokepeople said that we are just going to rank you alphabetically by last name and that's where you place. I don't think Michelle Wie would be against this. She's be thinking, "well it might actually be better than where I'll actually place...Thank goodness for Mark Wilson."

anonymous said...

Tem, easy fix... run them over. solve society's problem.

Spaceman Spiff said...

so the second string punter did tryto disguise himself, he only got caught because he took off tape from his license plate that was cpovering it at a liquor store and teh owner saw this. there was also someone else with him who theyre looking for.

temwr said...

That punter story is endless comedy.

anonymous said...

punter:

when does the story come out that he videotaped it too?

El Padrino said...

wvu punter should do it too himself

anonymous said...

..or that he posted pics of it on myspace..

Spaceman Spiff said...

http://uselessjunk.com/article_full.php?id=10430

bears boxing, looks like they are trained well, fists just fly at the signal.

temwr said...

The WVU punt scheme is just ridiculously odd. They had a punter who was awesome at that kind of punt, but he graduated or something. Now the new kid isn't very good at it.

They changed their punt scheme to that a few years back because VT blocked at least 104 kicks against them in 2 games.

temwr said...

Are those bears or midets in costumes?

Spaceman Spiff said...

when wvu punted it sounded like he was kicking a rock, i agree he needs to be north colorado'd

temwr said...

**midgets

El Padrino said...

oh jesus

Gallery is out, he was thier only decent football player
that raven line might jump to 14

Spaceman Spiff said...

only picture people got of gallery was getting abused by merriman, so the backup will probly look the same and no one will notice even though gallery is better

temwr said...

Moss is at least decent.

Spaceman Spiff said...

uh oh, brooks has a bruised knee, if the ravens beat him up early and walter comes in, do the raiders cover?

El Padrino said...

uh yeah

ray lewis actually prefers white meat

Spaceman Spiff said...

whitlock is the next in line to leave page 2, pretty soon the sports guy page will be page 2

Isiah Thomas said...

I hate old people's smell.

anonymous said...

i hate whitlock.

i like him being online, because i dont have to put up with him and i can just avoid his crap.

but when he goes on PTI, thats another story. that's where i draw the lizine.

anonymous said...

also, when trying to set up a "become the starter quick" scheme by stabbing someone, try not to use a car with the license plate (or be caught peeling the tape off of)....

"8-KIKR"

that's right folks.. that's our guy's license number. give away?

Isiah Thomas said...

great no C Portis this weekend for the Skins, this is going to end badly if they don't watch it.

temwr said...

Just when I think that punter story can't get better, it does. Is the punters name Clarett?

Whitlock is a bastard. I hate him. He sucks online, he sucks writing for the KC Star, he sucks writing for page 2.

Spaceman Spiff said...

i dont believe portis is not playing, i just refuse to believe something so ridiculous, hopefully gibbs is full of shit this time

Spaceman Spiff said...

he got a fucking mohawk gibbs and youre going to sit him? didnt think so

anonymous said...

i am leery of any writer that works at a large corporation (ie, WWL) and doesnt even have a real email address.

isnt his address like ballstate68@aol.com?

i only remember that because its such a joke to me, and plus, it rhymes and i can see his fat sweaty head giggling about getting a "cool" account name.

let it go man.. yes you played college ball (apparently), but damnit, that doesnt make your opinion count.

temwr said...

It is rather odd that he doesn't get a real email account.

Spaceman Spiff said...

supposedly hes gonna move over to AOL sports which is also supposedly coming up, because he knows someone over there

Isiah Thomas said...

this could end badly for Portis and the Skins which would really suck unless you got like the 31 overall pick for him.

Something seems to be brewing between Portis and the Skins.

El Padrino said...

worth more than branch

fo sho

temwr said...

AOL sports sucks. Never read anything there, but if they want Whitlock, they suck.

Isiah Thomas said...

31=#1

Spaceman Spiff said...

yea something is a amiss at redskins camp and the only losers will be us skins fans

Zeke Fucks My Mom said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
El Padrino said...

http://www.deadspin.com/

scroll down the simmons colbert thing is here

he looks scurred

anonymous said...

real writers use blogspot.

The Rev said...

Just saw Simmons on Colbert.

A little awkward, yes.

anonymous said...

and in random news, apparently they're selling kobe's new #24 jersey...

http://takeitfromherkobetakeit.notlong.com

El Padrino said...

PEACE!

temwr said...

Great link for the Simmons thing El Pad.

My comments:

1) I am absolutely positive that I would fight him if we both met in a Sports Bar and either one or both of us were drunk. His voice is slightly annoying and I can just see him being "that guy" at the bar who cheers too loudly about everything and complains about the refs too much.

2) I am positive I would win that fight.

3) Yes, he was awkward.

4) I would be suprised to learn that Colbert likes sports. He seems like a drama nerd that knows nothing about sports.

5) Simmons doesn't come up with jokes as fast as I thought he would. Colbert asks if any pitchers wear bullet proof vest and Simmons has nothing. David Wells looks like he is wearing one, that's an easy joke.

6) Why can't you get liquor and whores in Boston? I am pretty sure you can get both.

7) Did he forget he was on their to pimp his book? He barely talked about it and never steered the convo back to it.

8) Simmons=Republican apparently. Why go with the Clinton throws like a girl joke? I suspect Simmons throws like one too. When you look unathletic you should never make fun of someone who got one of the world's most famous BJs.

9) Why didn't he steer the convo to something that was "in his wheelhouse" (stealing from DS there)? He didn't talk about any unintentional comedy, no pantheon faces, no gambling, nothing that is a running theme in his columns.

OK time to go, enjoy the weekend, good luck on everyone's bets and all the jazz.

The Rev said...

Trust me on this... you can get plenty of liquor and whores in Boston now, just not on Sundays.

But in 1918, I'm thinking Boston was a more restricted town than New York.

Isiah Thomas said...

had to turn off the Simmons interview after 30 seconds or so....yikes.

When the guy comes out waving his arms and taking bows, I thought that was simmons....not the host.

Who/What is the Colbert Report anyway...never heard of it.

JFreak said...

9) Why didn't he steer the convo to something that was "in his wheelhouse" (stealing from DS there)? He didn't talk about any unintentional comedy, no pantheon faces, no gambling, nothing that is a running theme in his columns.


As evidence by the readers on here...Simmions' audience and Colbert's audience aren't exactly the same people. So for Simmions to talk about the things that are exclusive to his column is a bad strategy to sell books.

And Isiah, Colbert's show is good in it's own right. Skewers the news, much like Jon Stewart, but with conservative overtones instead of liberal.
http://www.colbertnation.com/

Top Of The Page Material:

"Idiots with nothing better to do"





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